Persian Google Bomb

Iranians have used the bomb, or at least the google bomb. Googling Arabian Gulf now sends you here.

Table of Nations

You know I'm a historian when Genesis Chapter 10 is the book of the Old Testament I spend the most time thinking about. Known as the "Table of Nations," it is the how the tribally organized peoples of ancient Israel conceived the world. Jan Retso believes it has two layers, a primary organization dating from the 12th century BCE, and a later expansion during the 7th century BCE. According to him, for example, the Hamites are all Hamites because they were living in the territory ruled by Egypt at that time, while the Semites were a bunch of independent city-states stretching from southern Turkey into Mesopotamia and the Japhethites as the peoples of the far north.

This table might suggest some root causes for why egalitarian ethical monotheism arose in a tribal society. In ancient Israel, everyone in the world was defined as part of a whole, and seen as related. No one is inherently superior to anyone else. You can yank Israel out of history and still have history - this table doesn't even get to Abraham. Did that have deeper effects on the early Jewish religious thinkers, and later the early Muslims in the similarly organized Arabian Peninsula? That, alas, is something we can never truly answer.

Meda'in Saleh

I've heard of Petra's "sister city" in the Shammar Mountains, but never before read such a complete description, or even heard the exact name. Here are some pictures if you're interested. At some presently unforeseen time I'm going to visit this place.

Afghanistan Pipeline

One of the more misguided conspiracy theories of my lifetime was the idea that the U.S. toppled the Taliban because they wanted to build a pipeline. That being said, however, the pipeline project is again underway, though still in the early stages. What I like in the article is that many seem to see the pipeline as part of Afghanistan's reconstruction rather than something to follow it. Afghanistan's best hope for long-term economic stability is if it becomes a transit route for trade across Asia, a major problem because trade routes bypass areas of instability. If this project is carried through, I would even suggest the U.S. and our allies offer troops to guard such a pipeline, despite how it would look to many in the West.

End to Official Incitement

One news source is claiming that the Palestinian Authority has ordered an end to official incitement against Israel, though adding they intent to monitor Israeli incitement against Palestinians. This has long been the most obvious step to take for the Palestinians, and I'm glad someone is finally stepping up to the plate.

Jailed Cleric

A Kuwaiti religious leader named Hamid al-Ali is probably going to jail for opposing the invasion of Iraq and defaming Arab leaders. Clearly the invasion of Iraq is setting off a domino effect of democracy throughout the region.

Juan Cole in Madison

The University of Michigan's Juan Cole, whom a few of you may have heard of, will be giving a lecture titled "The Emergence of Shi'ite Iraq" Monday, December 6 at 4 p.m. in the Pyle Center Auditorium. If you're in town, be sure to come on by.

By the way, I recommend this post by Cole about liberal bias in universities. I agree it's there, but the causes are sociological rather than structural, and applying any radical structural solution would create lots of new problems without solving this one.

Price of Sushi

Is it just me, or has sushi gotten more expensive lately?

A Prince Disinherited

I just learned from Abu Aardvark that King Abdullah II of Jordan has removed his younger brother Hamza from the role of Crown Prince. The Arab world does not have the rule of primogeniture, so every succession has the potential to become interesting. Rulers have been trying the "Promise to let your brother be king after you" thing since the Umayyad dynasty, all convinced they can succeed where their own fathers failed.

Thanksgiving Entertainment

Tonight I went with my fraternal organism to see National Treasure. The other movie we considered was Alexander, and the many common plot elements with Umberto Eco's Foucault's Pendulum, which I'm currently reading, made me wonder if this is what going to see a play was like in ancient Greece. Let us see another interpretation of the Trojan War! My grandfather was a 33rd Degree mason, and he was apparently hiding quite a lot. However, no one has noticed that the Templars' plan is entering its final phase before our very eyes in the spread of the Cliopatriarchs.

I do recommend seeing National Treasure, though at present my only verdict on Foucault's Pendulum is that 666 years after 1344 is 2010, not 2000, something at least one character should have picked up on by now.

A Wizard's Nobel

If this release date rumor as an unreliable as The Leaky Cauldron makes it out to be, why post it? More interesting is Isabel Allende's suggestion that J.K. Rowling should win the Nobel Prize for Literature. That smacks immediately of exaggeration, but should it? The official web site says the prize recognizes "the whole spectrum of literary works," and in the past Henri Bergson and Winston Churchill have won for non-fiction. Why shouldn't the prize go to someone specializing in the important field of children's literature? Whether Rowling's work has the timelessness of a Hans Christian Anderson is out of my range of speciality, but it's at least an interesting question.

Thanksgiving

This has been a rather uninspiring Thanksgiving. Of course, it might help if I were feeling better.

Saudi Women Fly

Women in Saudi Arabia may not be able to legally drive, but now they can fly. A woman named Hanadi Zakariya Hindi has just become the kingdom's first female pilot after being hired for Prince al-Walid b. Talal's private fleet. The prince said he supports women's right to employment in any field. Attitudes like this are why it is a mistake to brand "the Saudi royal family" as a monolithic enemy.

Outside Petra

The wonder of Petra isn't just confined to the magnificient rock-carved buildings inside the city itself. Other signs of ancient habitation are scattered around the surrounding countryside, like this one visible from our hotel.

Cole Under Fire

MEMRI is threatening to sue newly announced MESA President-Elect Juan Cole over comments made on his web log. You should go support him. Abu Aardvark explains why.

Incidentally, Cole also has more on the Gulf naming controversy.

Off the Hook

Kuwait's Parliament has voted not to investigate the Information Minister over the way he handled the death of Yasser Arafat. He has now gone back to his regular duties, such as prosecuting a Shi'ite magazine for blasphemy.

Gulf Conflict

Ahh, this debate. It's been so long since I've heard about it, it's good to know the principles still have time to spare.

Cause of Death

They still don't know the cause of Arafat's death. To be honest, judging from the press reports, Yasser Arafat's last weeks closely parallelled those of my grandfather, which is one reason I jumped in so early in talking about Arafat's last days. In our case, there was no single cause of death. Sometimes things just stop working the way they should, which affects other things. Why does my car need repairs more frequently now than it did five years ago?

Kuwaiti Ministers

The Minister of Information isn't alone in the Kuwaiti Parliament's investigatory sights. A Shi'ite Islamist has called for the prosecution of the Minister of Health over the death of a Somali patient in a government hospital. Meanwhile, two liberals want to question the Minister of State for Cabinet Affairs, State Minister for Parliamentary Affairs, and Deputy Prime Minister over alleged corruption and democracy suppression. This is not a united effort to thwart the monarchy, as no one seems to know what to make of the move against the Health Minister, while the latter investigation is opposed by Islamists. Still, the country might be passing through a phase when political corruption and mismanagement becomes a weapon used in open public debate between factions, which does often lead to less corruption and mismanagement, so I see these as positive developments.

Phantom of the Opera

Phantom of the Opera is being performed here in January. I really need to find some theater fans. I'm not sure my current social circle has any.

Filing Opens

As Palestinians officially begin the process of electing a President to replace Yasser Arafat, Hamas is changing their tune and considering throwing their support to a sympathetic independent candidate. Meanwhile, this survey conducted in and around Jerusalem and Ramallah claims 93% of people there would not accept Mahmud Abbas as President. The methodology and sample size aren't that impressive, but the margin is pretty staggering.

Gas Leak in Balkh

IWPR's report on a gas leak in Balkh shows a lot of the problems which still plague Afghanistan's governing system. Corruption and warlordism still trump the popular will.

Quebec City

This is the oldest stone church in Quebec City.

In Footnotes

While discussing the interests of certain early Islamic historian, the book I'm reading says, "Pre-Islamic Arab history had endured much longer (than Islamic) and it was not so distant." After this sentence is the mark for a footnote which reads, "Both statements are becoming increasingly untrue with the passage of time."

Umm, why, yes, I guess they are.

Politics by Scandal

Members of the Kuwaiti Parliament are employing the time-tested technique of politics by piling it on. As they continues to investigate the Kuwaiti Information Minister for his role in official praise for Yasser Arafat, pictures have surfaced of him hugging Lebanese singers, which they link rhetorically to supposedly scandalous programming on official state television. I'm starting to wonder if Kuwaiti Islamists are trying to do to him what conservative Republicans did to Arlen Specter.

Evolution and Creationism

Dave Milovich argues that since the purpose of biology classes is not to train biologists, students should learn about unscientific theories on biological issues. Unlike most liberals, I don't have a constitution-based problem with minimalist inclusion of intelligent design or similar ideas somewhere in the curriculum. Enough people believe in them that a well-rounded person should at least know what they are, and I don't think students who don't will be adversely affected from learning about the beliefs of their peers in an appropriate setting. However, I think Dave's argument is weak in that he doesn't actually say what he sees as the purpose of a high school biology class and consequently where the setting is, in fact, appropriate. The analogy with learning different theories of history breaks down at the level of methodology. You can come to different views of history by applying historical methods, but creationism is solely a faith-based religious perspective which lies firmly outside the scientific method, which is based on testing hypotheses via empirical observation. Class time dedicated to science should be used for science, an area in which American high school students have not recently excelled. Learning the basics of this field which defines so much of our modern era is important even for those who don't pursue it as a career.

UPDATE: Dave responds here.

Palestinian Political Update

Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the Islamic militants, have decided to boycott the upcoming Palestinian Presidential elections. Meanwhile, the Fatah leadership has united around Mahmud Abbas as their candidate, but their militants, the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, have endorsed the currently imprisoned Marwan Barghouti. These stories are undoubtedly concealing the real divides in Palestinian politics, such as the fact that Abbas eats chicken schwarma while Barghouti and his supporters prefer beef.

Lewis's Influence

Michael Hirsh has a must-read Washington Monthly article on Bernard Lewis, his detractors, and what it all means for you. My strictly academic criticism is that both Lewis and Bulliet see the history of Islamic civilization as too tied with Christianity as opposed to say, Hinduism, but the core issues this article discusses are real. As an aside, I wonder of those who have sought to discredit Middle East Studies due to some bad predictions about the aftermath of the first Persian Gulf War will now turn on Lewis because of his role in the second. I won't be holding my breath.

The Green Tea Factor

Pejman Yousefzadeh admits that he is a conservative who drinks green tea, while Tim Burke makes some similar observations after a trip to New Orleans. As the commentariat discusses Kerry's failure to bridge the cultural divide, I'd feel more comfortably if there were a sudden rush of articles questioning whether we want to choose the most power person in the world based off beverage preferences. Did we spend the 1990's concluding that politicians' sex lives were irrelevant only to delve into a set of issues that can't even be called "character?"

Locusts

Egypt has been struck by a swarm of locusts. Fortunately experts predict minimal damage.

Mosul

I spent most of today reading about fighting in and around Mosul and the Baghdad government's ineffective attempts to exert control over the situation, only to have things slip beyond their control once they blinked. Specifically, I've been reading al-Azdi's account in History of Mosul of the tribal warfare there in the early 9th century and organizing the key points which interest me into what will become one of the final chapters in my dissertation. Back in those days you won support by distributing wealth to prominent leaders who filtered it on down to their followers. I read some of Iyad Allawi's political tactics as an attempt at something similar, but it clearly hasn't worked. Let's hope that this works out with minimal bloodshed on both sides.

Syrian Media

Abu Aardvark notes a potential opening in Syrian press regulations. And guess what? It probably comes in reaction to people our government doesn't like:

"It is almost impossible to exaggerate how dismal and boring most Syrian publications are. Good lord are they dull. The real spur for reform? 'It may be competition between the public media and new private publications or the work of foreign journalists that will help raise the bar and spur on reform in Syria.' Actually, though she doesn't say it, the answer seems pretty obvious: al Jazeera and al Arabiya and the rest of the Arab satellite media have pretty much destroyed the ability of a state such as Syria to control information. If nobody watches your state television anymore, or reads your state newspapers, they kind of lose their purpose."

Incidentally, many people have been complaining about al-Jazeera lately.

Deja Vu

Among the questions raised by this are who leaked tons of raw intelligence implicating Iran in the Iraqi insurgency, why they leaked it, and why anyone is placing a great deal of faith in raw intelligence provided in large part by exile groups from the country it implicates. A subsidiary question is how the piece's author could write about Iran's connection to the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq without mentioning that they're on our side, and that their leader, Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim, was assassinated in a terrorist bombing.

Defining the Topic

Over at Cliopatra, there's a discussion of the periodization of African history. This periodization stuff doesn't interest me as much as the way we define things geographically. A couple of years ago I wrote some African entries for the 17th and 18th centuries volume of The Greenwood Encyclopedia of Daily Life, and they all involved a discussion of diversity, especially since my purview included the continent's north coast. You can only find so much common ground between Madagascar and Mali. On the other hand, why is it that if I want to do a project that involves both Yemen and Somalia, I'm crossing regional lines?

United Kyrgyz Opposition

In Kyrgyzstan, the least dictatorial Central Asian country, government opponents forces are uniting into a unified opposition front. Will it be enough to drive the Akaev government from power? As we saw in Yugoslavia, when the opposition agrees to cooperate on their common goal, it is a crucial first step.

Falluja's History

I didn't know this:

"Most Americans do not realize that Fallujah is celebrated in Iraqi history and poetry for its defiance of the British in the Great Rebellion of 1920. The 1920 revolution against the British is key to modern Iraqi history. One of the guerrilla groups taking hostages named itself the "1920 Revolution Brigades." Western journalists who don't know Iraqi history have routinely mistranslated the name of this group."

U.S. in Afghanistan

David Asednik disputes Robert Kaplan's assertion that the U.S. left Afghanistan essentially as it found it because it now has elections and women in the classroom. It's worth mentioning, however, that in much of the country there were women in the classroom before the Taliban, and there are still areas where they are not. You can't take the Taliban as Afghanistan's natural state which the U.S. distupted. All we did was remove that regime and put in place a new, more broadly based coalition of power brokers whom we're trying to push in a democratic direction. That said, I strongly disagree with Kaplan's view that Iraq is not fertile ground for a democracy. He's apparently forgotten the enthusiaism for local elections in summer 2003 which the U.S. thwarted to prevent people we didn't like from winning them.

Cards and Dice

Last night was the debut of a new cards and dice game called Doubles, invented by my friend Dave Milovich. It was a blast, and you should try it. I like the fact that, even more so than most card games, any hand can be the winner or loser depending on your strategy. Worth mentioning is the fact that even though Dave came up with mathematical probabilities for what he should do to maximize his chances of winning, every game of Doubles ever played has been won by our other friend Keary, who ignored the math.

Gulf Parliaments

Are you suspicious that all these Parliaments in the Persian Gulf don't really mean anything? In CEIP's latest Arab Reform Bulletin, Michael Herb looks at their powers and says you're probably right. Here's his concluding paragraph:

"In short, with the exception of Kuwait, these parliaments have only modest powers. Any progress toward democracy in Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar will require constitutional revisions to expand parliamentary powers while maintaining a tradition of relatively free elections. In Kuwait, the Parliament already has the power to mount a very serious challenge to the primacy of the ruling family—it could simply vote no confidence in every minister until the ruling family surrendered and allowed the Parliament to select the cabinet itself. There is no prospect of this occurring anytime soon, but it suggests that the barriers to democratization in Kuwait, unlike elsewhere in the Gulf, do not lie primarily in its constitution."

Arafat and Kuwaitis

Kuwait's Minister of Information may be forced to resign after the official TV station ran a documentary praising late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. Many Kuwaitis have bad memories of Arafat's support for Saddam Hussein during the Iraqi invasion of their country. It looks like an Assistant Sectretary for New Affairs will take the fall, but Islamists in Parliament are seeking prey higher up the food chain.

Weasel Awards

Don't forget to vote in the 2004 Weasel Poll.

Erfoud

When I travel, I like to take pictures of random streets as much as monuments and scenery. This is Erfoud, a French-built provincial town along the Ziz Valley road to the Sahara. Trees block the closest buildings, but you can see the "Europified" Berber style.

Chaos in Mosul

This article shows a lot of what's going wrong with the occupation of Iraq. While taking Falluja, we lose control of Mosul. The pro-government Iraqi forces refuse to fight the insurgents there, and are being replaced with the only Iraqis who reliably fight their contrymen, the Kurds. The Kurdish fighters being sent to Mosul are now on the borders, which the administration often reminds us are insufficiently controlled anyway. Not only that, but Sunni/Shi'ite tensions which have not historically existed in Iraq become increasingly real as our policies categorize people primarily in terms of religion and as many look to religious leaders as the only national figures untainted by Ba'athist corruption.

28

Today is my 28th birthday. Given current life expectancy, that means my life is about 1/3 over. I feel so old. Fortunately, I don't have much to complain about.

Arafat's Choices

I've tried to avoid surfing for Arafat coverage today so I could get through some dissertation work, but strongly recommend this post by Jonathan Edelstein. One story I've heard is that at Camp David, Arafat refused Barak's peace deal saying if he signed it he would be dead in six months. That quote may be apocryphal, but the story illustrates the core of his character as a national leader who placed himself above all others.

And what did Arafat win for himself at those potentially historic peace talks? Four extra years of life, most of which were spent confined to a single building. The price was hundreds of dead Palestinians and Israelis, and death-day commentary like this. There's a moral in there somewhere.

Stereotypes as Insults

Controversy can develop at the most random times. In a dull moment yesterday, I commented on Josh Marshall's use of Islamic terms as insults. My point in doing so was not to defend Dobson, as some suggest. I was defending Islam. A parallel situation might be this: There is in Western Christian culture a stereotype of Jews as rich and greedy. So let us say that in some company, a boss with undetermined religious beliefs decided to eliminate Christmas bonuses. A disgruntled employee proceeds to mutter that he is a "Jew." This would be wrong not because bosses should eliminate Christmas bonuses, but because that line of attack perpetuates anti-Semitic stereotypes. Attacking the religious right by effectively calling them Muslims is the same thing.

UPDATE: Interested readers might like this perspective on the concept of "shura." It is only one view, but I don't have time to find something definitive.

Most Sincerely Dead

It's over. And it has begun.

Competence and Knowledge

Tim Burke's argument that respect for competence is found only among educated elites is just bizarre, and I'm going to pretend he didn't write it until I find out otherwise. A much stronger case could be made for the fact that many people voted for Bush because they felt that even if he weren't the best at implementing his agenda, it was still better than electing someone whose goals you strongly disagreed with. More importantly, however, I think he overlooks the extent to which, say, blue-collar voters are removed from a sophisticated understanding of non-pocketbook issues. For people who don't spend their days wading in source material armed with experience of a region or at the very least training in assessing the data at hand, the core of these issues very much becomes one of trust. When I talk to my parents about Iraq, for example, I frequently hear the line, "You don't know who to believe." Substantive arguments over how well things are going and what policies are likely to improve them come across as mainly verbal contests in which everyone branded as an authority - political, intellectual, or otherwise - holds roughly equal weight. As a result, character and presentation tend to tip the scales.

Palestinian Succession

Arrangements are set for what will happen after Arafat officially dies. According to Ha'aretz, plans have been approved for a funeral in Cairo, followed by a burial in Ramallah, which makes more sense than Gaza from a Palestinian perspective without the controversy of the Jerusalem ideal. The truth is, Arafat did not lead his people into the promised land, and in Arafat's case it is at least partially his own fault for hoarding wealth and power rather than throwing everything to completing his purported life's work. The Arafat era will thus be remembered as one of struggle and turmoil rather than accomplishment.

On the more immediately important question of the succession, the Palestinian leadership will be divided among Abu Ala, Abu Mazen, and someone I've never heard of named Rawhi Fatuh. According to the Constitution, they are required to hold new elections within 60 days. If the security environment permits, some sort of elections will probably take place, as both the Islamist factions and the Young Guard will want to claim a share of the power they're presently frozen out of, and the proposed leadership committee doesn't have the influence to hold out indefinitely. But there are too many random elements to predict how it will all play out.

Kuwaiti Women's Rights

In Kuwait, a draft of the women's rights bill has been referred to Parliament after approval by the Cabinet and Emir. The Kuwaiti Parliament has 50 seats, with a simple majority need to pass legislation. The current composition is 21 Islamists, 14 "government supporters" (mainly conservative tribal leaders), three liberals, and 12 independents. Gulf News quotes sources as saying the bill is guaranteed 15 votes from Shi'ites and liberals - I'm assuming from the numbers he's using a different definition of liberal than the CIA. Also interesting is a survey conducted by the Kuwaiti Muslim Brotherhood finding that 80% of Kuwaitis favor women's suffrage.

Hassan II Mosque Packed

Over the summer, I was unimpressed with Casablanca's gargantuan Hassan II Mosque, which seemed built mainly to commemorate Morocco's ruling family and create a monument in the country's otherwise lackluster largest city. The tour guide reluctantly admitted that on an average day only a few hundred people prayed there. According to Middle East Online, however, the place has been packed during Ramadan as people go to hear a rising celebrity in the world of Qur'an reading named Omar Kazebri.

Uzbekistan Crackdown

According to IWPR, the recent market protests in Uzbekistan spread throughout the Fergana Valley. The government is responding by going after the ringleaders rather than all demonstrators.

A Mess

That's the best I can do at describing Iraq. We are currently engaged in an offensive in Falluja designed to enhance Sunni participation in elections, but the main Sunni political party has withdrawn from the government in protest. American forces are advancing into Falluja, and will likely regain the control over the city they once exercised, but as Daily Kos (former soldier who has lived through a guerrilla war) points out not meeting resistance isn't a good thing when your goals include crushing the resistance. As I write this, somone is saying on CNN that Zarqawi is no longer in the city, presumably leaving in the long (pre-election) run-up to the offensive, much like he escaped into the Sunni triangle in the first place when we didn't bother to attack his camp in Kurdistan before the war. And some distance away, insurgents have retaken the center of Ramadi.

And no, I don't have a better idea at the point. Hence the title of this post.

Iraqi Desertions

It's both telling and depressing that significant Iraqi desertions are so expected that they merit mention in the last paragraph of a story. Iraqification of the conflict is a viable strategy only if the Iraqis participate.

Minnesota

Dude, what is it with Minnesota? The United Health Foundation has proclaimed them the healthiest state. This follows studies claiming that Minneapolis is the best city in which to sleep and a study from awhile back I can't find now in which its men had the best sperm.

Crisis in Democracy

While many are filled with rage over voting machines and media control, I believe there is a far more advanced crisis in our democracy, one also noted by conservative K.C. Johnson at Cliopatra. Click over to the revitalized Dean Nation to see what I mean.

Battle for Falluja

The latest battle for Falluja has begun. Expect the administration to tout enemy casualty figures as signs of success, oblivious to the fact that they might be making as many enemies as they defeat. Also, bear in mind the political situation in Falluja, which is controlled primarily by means of kinship ties rather than ideology. In addition, note that this is a city where the United States has been been getting on the people's bad side since the first days of the occupation. What all this means is that the U.S. could gain military control of the city, but it would be a tense occupation of a hostile population. If there are more fissures between the shaykhly families and religious leaders than are presently manifest a skillful government could use reconstruction aid to enhance the status of the shaykhly clans and win their support, but even then you'd still have ideological opposition underground.

Hate

Abu Aardvark, in discussing parallels between Islamism and the religious right in the United States, comments that "Christianism has not produced a bin Laden." He's right in terms of the ability Islamist terrorist networks have to cause mass destruction; however, if anyone doubts the most extreme members of the religious right (whom I believe are a minority of that movement) are capable of the same level of violent hatred, I would direct them here.

State of Emergency

Middle Eastern governments have used emergency laws to justify their dictatorship for decades. Now that Iraq has declared a state of emergency, you can't help but be concerned.

Future Palestinian Governance

"The hereditary Emperor is nearly dead and has been for many centuries. In the last moments of his dying coma he was locked in a stasis field which keeps him in a state of perpetual unchangingness. All is heirs are now long dead, and this means that without any drastic political upheaval, power has simply and effectively moved a rung or two down the ladder, and is now seen to be vested in a body that used to act simply as advisers to the Emperor - an elected governmental assembly headed by a President elected by that assembly. In fact it vests in no such place.

"The President in particular is very much a figurehead - he wields no real power whatsoever. He is apparently chosen by the government, but the qualities he is required to display are not those of leadership but those of finely judged outrage. For this reason the President is always a controversial choice, always an infuriating but fascinating character. His job is not to wield power, but to draw attention away from it. On those criteria Zaphod Beeblebrox is one of the most successful Presidents the Galaxy has ever had - he has already had two of his ten presidential years in prison for fraud. Very, very few people realize that the President and the Government have virtually no power at all, and of those few people only six know whence ultimate political power is wielded."

The situation in the Middle East is, of course, very serious, and one shouldn't joke about it. But after picking up Douglas Adams's The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy hoping to avoid real news and finding this passage, I couldn't resist =)

Republicans = Israeli Right?

This essay by Mark Levine is over the top in a lot of places, but one claim that's becoming common enough in some quarters to be worth refuting is the implicit idea that the American occupation in Iraq is the same as the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Most among the Israeli right favor building large numbers of settlements in the Occupied Territories for the purpose of Judaizing it and ultimately annexing it to Israel through a process they don't have fully planned out yet. The American right, by contrast, takes pride in the fact that at most we want a few military bases in Iraq, and wins support by claiming to be assisting an embryonic sovereign democracy. This is a non-trivial difference which shapes both the debate and the actual formulation of long-term policies in Washington and Tel Aviv.

On a similar note, partisan Democrat Matthew Yglesias has some key comments about the relationship between the American right and social justice:

"Who's working to halt the spread of HIV/AIDS in Africa? Who's trying to help refugees in Darfur? Who's trying to stop global trafficking in women? Why, that would be socially conservative religious movements. For that matter, who's charged off on a neo-Wilsonian quest to spread democracy at gunpoint. The efficacy of the religious right's preferred means of spreading liberty around the world can and should be questioned, as should the sincerity of at least some of the architects of the strategy, but there's every reason to think that many -- if not most -- of the people who vote for George W. Bush and his forward strategy of freedom are perfectly sincere in their belief that this is what's happening and that it's a good idea."

By including that here, I don't mean to claim the the National Religious Party and Likud activists don't have similar concerns - my Israeli readers could tell me for sure - but merely that demonizing everyone who voted for President Bush as an international criminal is utterly ridiculous.

Mosque Collapse

Some may remember my doubts about whether conditions in Fez's old city were good for anyone but tourists. This shows why.

Cruithne

Last night, someone told me Earth had more than one moon. After a bit of googling, I've discovered he's somewhat right. The other moonlike object is called Cruithne.

Schrodinger's Chairman

Everyone is expecting turmoil after Arafat dies. But what if he remains in this condition for weeks? It might allow the old guard currently running the show to firm up their position, leading to a fait accompli by the time the funeral is held. On the other hand, the uncertainty could lead to even more chaos, as no one can consolidate a position formally as long as he remains alive. As noted below, the players are already starting to make moves.

Hamas's Moves

Allison Kaplan Sommer is probably right when she says:"All of what's going on seems like code for, 'He's a goner but no one is going to be the person to pull the plug on his life support.'". Indeed the battle for influence in post-Arafat Palestinian politics has already begun. Al-Jazeera reports that Hamas has called for a unified Palestinian leadership, insisting they can function as a pragmatic political movement alongside Fatah. Fatah officials are less sure, and many in Israel would oppose negotiating with a government that includes Hamas in a significant way.

Madison Student Vote

Just received from the Feingold volunteer coordinator I was under:

"We did our part; we delivered Wisconsin for Kerry, we re-elected Russ Feingold and Tammy Baldwin and we shattered the records set in 2000 and 2002 for turnout in the student wards. The work we did beginning months ago and ending on Tuesday brought out thousands upon thousands of first time voters. I heard that 33,000 students voted in Madison....33,000! Thats absolutely incredible.

Patriot Act

One issue before us during the next year is the renewal of the USA Patriot Act. One easily understood controversial section is Title II, Section 215. Notice how weak and unenforceable the civil liberties protections are. The "first amendment" clause seems meaningless, since you can get around it easily by claiming that no terrorist activity is protected under the Constitution. More troublesome is the secrecy provision. Republicans often point out that critics can't cite cases of abuse. As the act itself makes clear, however, we have no way of knowing whether it has been abused or not.

Bad Iraq News

Two bad pieces of news come from Iraq today. The first is that my favorite charity, Doctors Without Borders, is withdrawing due to the deteriorating security situation. In military terms, Hungary has announced they will withdraw their 300 troops from the country. Other nations which have pulled out or plan to include Spain, the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Nicaragua, the Philippines, Norway, The Netherlands, New Zealand, and Thailand. Moldova, Bulgaria, and Singapore have reduced their troop levels. The "Coalition of the Willing" is growing less willing.

Rule by Committee?

Yasser Arafat continues to die. Why do people think that when he finally goes there will be a single successor? Given the situation in the Palestinian Authority, some sort of power sharing agreement among key players seems the most likely outcome, even though one person will be the official "President."

Bush's Second Term

For a host of reasons, I have misgivings about what's in store for us during the next four years. However, on the key issues which I generally address on this blog, I think a lot will depend on the make-up of President Bush's national security team, assuming there are at least some changes. If people like Richard Lugar come on board and have influence, we could still see much of what I hoped to get out of a Kerry administration on terrorism issues. The worst part of this is the implicit ratification of pre-emptive war, which could lead us down a path I'd rather not trod. All the other differences are mainly matters of degree on social and economic policies through which the country will survive and prosper. Finally, there is no sweeping conservative tide in the United States. This was a narrow win, as were most of the Senate contests. Even with Bush's coattails, the Republicans got only narrow wins for people like Vitter and Martinez. So keep repeating: There is no sweeping conservative tide in the United States. The Republicans are slightly better at finding ways to win close races, and have done it now for two election cycles. If we convert 2% of the electorate who voted this year, the Democrats will come roaring back.

Voter Turnout

Madison's Deputy City Clerk has revised turnout expectations up to an incredible 90%. Traditionally, high turnout favors Democrats. But our experiences with that only go up to maybe 60% on a national level. Pundits have been saying 120 million voters means good news for Kerry, but does it follow that 130 million or more would be better news? It might be, and in Madison this could just be a sign that Democrats in particular are energized. But I think we're to the point where unknown variables could upset our received wisdom.

UAE President Dies

Shaykh Zayid b. Sultan an-Nahayan, who has ruled the United Arab Emirates for 33 years, has died. His successor is expected to be Shaykh Khalifa b. Zayed an-Nahyana, Crown Prince (now Emir?) of Abu Dhabi.

Woman Minister for UAE

President Shaykh Sayed b. Sultan an-Nahayan of the United Arab Emirates has appointed Shaykha Lubna al-Qasimi as his new Minister in charge of economics and planning, the first woman Cabinet member in that country and one who now holds an important position. The move came as part of a wider reshuffle.

Shirin Ebadi Banned

Iranian Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi is suing the United States for banning her memoirs. That is the most surreal development yet under an administration ostensibly dedicated to promoting free speech in the Middle East. Her work is banned under sanctions laws, which doesn't even make sense from a national security perspective, since people need to be educated about parts of the world in which we have vital interests. I know of no country except perhaps the Vatican City whose economy would be seriously hurt by literary sanctions.

Kurds for Bush

IWPR reports that if it were a state, President Bush would easily carry Iraqi Kurdistan.

Turkish Incursion into Kirkuk?

RFE-RL is reporting Turkish plans to send 40,000 troops into northern Iraq to prevent Kurds from gaining control over Kirkuk and attack Kurdish militias. At the same time, Kurdish forces are taking up points along the border. Turkey considers an autonomous Kurdistan a security risk, so I can see them actually doing this, and whoever wins today's election will have to use some careful diplomacy to defuse this situation. Both Allawi and an American administration would oppose such a move, which would further destabalize Iraq and pit a NATO nation against the main component of Iraqi society which currently supports the coalition actions in the country. This could, I might add, have been prevented if Bush had taken the steps necessary to secure Turkish involvement in this whole Iraq venture.

Long Lines

On Daily Kos, you can read about long lines all over the country, including the District of Columbia. Whatever his flaws, President Bush has clearly been great for democracy.

Election Quote (Over-Hyped)

"The board is set, the pieces are moving. We come to it at last, the great battle of our time.

-Gandalf the White

Odd

I have reached a peaceful otherworldly state in which I am unconcerned with whomever wins tomorrow's Presidential election.

Riots in Uzbekistan

The BBC reports that thousands are rioting in the Uzbek city of Kokand over a recent government decision to man middlemen from commercial transactions. Like some disturbances in Turkmenistan over the summer, this shows how Central Asian governments can push people to the brink by destroying their livelihoods. I doubt, however, that these protests amount to much in the long run.

The Ulrich Prediction

This feels more like a sports prediction than a rational assessment of data, because this thing is really too close to call and there are too many unknown variables. However, with that in mind, my best guess is that Kerry will win the electoral college 306-232, taking the upper midwest, Ohio and Florida while Bush takes Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. The basis for this is faith in the Democratic turnout machine and Democratic advantages in early voting in key states, as well as an expectation that undecided will break for the challenger, though not by a 2-1 margin.

By the way, under no circumstances should you look at this or this.