Thursday, November 04, 2004

Schrodinger's Chairman

Everyone is expecting turmoil after Arafat dies. But what if he remains in this condition for weeks? It might allow the old guard currently running the show to firm up their position, leading to a fait accompli by the time the funeral is held. On the other hand, the uncertainty could lead to even more chaos, as no one can consolidate a position formally as long as he remains alive. As noted below, the players are already starting to make moves.

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