The Ulrich Prediction

This feels more like a sports prediction than a rational assessment of data, because this thing is really too close to call and there are too many unknown variables. However, with that in mind, my best guess is that Kerry will win the electoral college 306-232, taking the upper midwest, Ohio and Florida while Bush takes Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. The basis for this is faith in the Democratic turnout machine and Democratic advantages in early voting in key states, as well as an expectation that undecided will break for the challenger, though not by a 2-1 margin.

By the way, under no circumstances should you look at this or this.