Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Arafat's Last Days

Suddenly the Gaza withdrawal is only the second most important breaking story in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Any plans to force a crisis in Sharon's coalition will probably be put on hold if it becomes necessary to implement these sorts of plans, which promise turmoil over everything from Arafat's burial site to how to handle chaos in the territories in the event of a violent succession struggle. In fact, the withdrawal itself might be delayed if the Palestinian Authority collapses completely and it becomes unclear who will take over. Furthermore, whichever faction eventually fills the void may depend a great deal on how Israel handles this transition. The more intense the conflict, the more likely it is that Palestinians will rally behind the most militant factions.

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