Indonesians in Africa

Ed Cohn afficionados will have seen this piece in The Guardian about a theory that Indonesians were primarily responsible for the creation of African culture. I basically agree with Ed that this is more a media-friendly surprise theory than serious history, but also want to note that there is evidence of an Indonesian presence in the western Indian Ocean for very early periods, and that Malagasy is actually the westernmost Polynesian language. I vaguely remember reading an essay in this book that went into these issues, but don't recall the details.

Yeesh!

In an otherwise decent Washington Post article about the state of Middle East Studies, Michael Dobbs says something that is simply wrong: "A favorite target for Campus Watch is the late Edward Said, a Columbia University professor best known for his book "Orientalism," which denounced the "neo-colonialist" policies of successive U.S. administrations." Excuse me? Does Orientalism even mention a single American President? He's trying to write a historical critique of the field of orientalism using the Foucauldian concept of discourse. Since Orientalism's influence is at the center of the critique of Middle East Studies made by people like Martin Kramer, you'd think a reporter could at least get a key fact straight.

The Iranian Situation

Abu Aardvark reads that Iranian leader Ali Khamene'i may permit the banned reformists to run in the election after all. The major weakness of the reformists has long been their refusal to work outside the system - Khatami has more resembled a Gorbachev in the late 1980's than a Yeltsin during the coup. Now, however, they are taking some serious stands, such as the threat of resignation from all the provincial governors. Developing...

Sunni Islamic Law

A lot of people ask me about Islamic law, how it works, and what I mean when I talk about the different schools. So I thought I'd write this post on Sunni Islamic law, to be followed later by one on Shi'ism.

"Islamic law" is a translation of the Arabic term "shari'a," which literally refers to a path. In this case, it is the path of a believing Muslim in doing God's will, and encompasses all aspects of Muslim life both public and private. The people the media refer to as clerics are better thought of as scholars (ulama), for they do not adminster sacraments, but instead study shari'a and show the people the proper way to live. Although all Muslims are supposed to gain some knowledge of shari'a, in practical terms most simply choose a famous scholar and follow his example.

Islamic law derives from four sources: the Qur'an, the Sunna (tradition of the Prophet Muhammad, based on the Hadith, which are individual accounts of his words and deeds), analogy from the Qur'an and Sunna (qiyas), and the consensus of the Muslim community (ijma). Using these sources, religious scholars perform ijtihad, which means to strive for correct judgement and is used to refer to the practice of independent reasoning on legal questions using the four sources of Islamic law. Over time, scholars divided into schools of thought, or in Arabic madhhab, meaning "path." These differ on the basis of methodology - how one comes to a conclusion is more important that the actual conclusion. Of these, four had lasting importance, and in the middle ages most cities had judges in each of the four so everyone could follow their own way. These are:

1.) Hanafi: Accepts local custom as another possible source of law, allows great liberty to individual scholars, as the favored school of the Turkish peoples it became prevalent throughout the old Ottoman Empire, as well as South and Central Asia and is today followed by the majority of Muslims
2.) Maliki: Places emphasis on the practice of Medina as the community founded by Muhammad, prevalent in North Africa, West Africa and in days of yore Muslim Spain
3.) Shafi'i: Believes the both Qur'an and Sunna are infallible, and tries to reconcile contradictions while placing little emphasis on analogy and consensus, it is followed today in Egypt, southern Arabia, Southeast Asia, East Africa and Chechnya and is considered the most lenient
4.) Hanbali: Elevates the Qur'an and Sunna above all else, considered the strictest, significant in the Arabian peninsula

Now in order to understand how this works in the modern world, we need to keep in mind a concept known as "The Closing of the Gates of Ijtihad." At some point, the belief grew up among Muslims that around the year 1000, all the questions of life had been settled and independent reasoning was no longer useful. This was never actually a universal belief, but was common enough that the study of shari'a gradually became more and more tied to the past. This has interesting effects for our impression of the madhhabs. For example, based on procedure, the Hanafi looks fairly liberal. After all, a Hanafi scholar in California could very easily include Californian customs as one of his sources, and produce some rather liberal views. If the gates of ijtihad are closed, however, we're left with rulings based on the customs of 10th-century Turkestan, which were somewhat different, and in some areas, such as women's rights, the Hanafi is actually the most conservative school.

In reality, however, the "gates of ijtihad" were never quite latched, and by the 18th century, Muslim reformers had emerged to challenge the status quo. The most influential was Ibn Abd al-Wahhab, who sought to "purify" the Hanbali branch of what he thought were pagan influences. A group of scholars called the Deobandis did the same thing with the Hanafi, leading to the brand of Islam practiced by the Taliban. The obvious thing to regret here, of course, is that these influential reformers have been coming at things from the wrong end, so to speak. More liberal voices are out there, too, but generally don't make headlines or take over countries, so most liberal Muslims find themselves looking at secularism as the main alternative to Islamic law as handed down through the centuries.

So the key points: Islamic law at its core is not a set code of conduct, but a diverse field of inquiry with many differences of opinion. Nonetheless, the conservative trends that cropped up during the past millennium have left it with a very conservative stamp. When Islamic law is adopted, the theoretical potential exists for a sort of "rethinking" if the community to which it is applied considers ijtihad legitimate in the modern world. Whether or not such development actually takes place is a subject for another time, and perhaps someone who specializes more on the 20th century. Individuals, of course, follow shari'a all the time, each according to their own conscience. Because many acts are classified as either "praiseworthy" or "reprehensible" instead of just "obligatory" or "forbidden," and because even with prohibited stuff penalties often involve God's judgement rather than a government's, this is very much within the historical mainstream of Islamic spirituality.

UPDATE: JB suggests a couple of resources for the 20th century.

In a Time of Shortage...

Last fall, I was annoyed that I couldn't find a source for how Democrats had tried to make undergraduates eligible for FLAS funding, only to be blocked by the GOP despite the shortage of Arabic speakers currently hindering our national security efforts. Now, I have found one. Ron Kind and Chris Van Hollen proposed the unsuccessful amendment.

Feminists and Hijab

Ikram Saeed has a post on the hijab controversy in France and a link to this Globe and Mail article by Sheema Khan on the same subject. A common point they share is that with regards to Islam, the recent French measures against personal religious displays fall disproportionately upon Muslim women.

My comment here is on Western attitudes toward Muslim dress in general rather than the French law under discussion. For many Westerners, especially feminists, hijab is seen as the physical expression of a Muslim misogyny that also includes everything from honor killings to forced marriages. In doing so, they unconsciously fall into a mindset where Islam is a religion which needs to be reformed with the help of a supposedly superior West. Because they make these links, they object strenuously to a religious choice made by many women, while ignoring the choices made by men who choose to wear beards, for example.

When I was in the Arab world, I found that standards of modesty were higher for both men and women. You could not wear shorts, for example, and nice jeans was the lower limit of public acceptability. Behavior patterns were also different. Above and beyond that, everyone finds their own level at which they are comfortable. Questions of cultural conflict arise when these informal dress codes are transferred to a different milieu. In the West, we have people who wear nice slacks to class even in summer, choose to grow beards and avoid profanity, but we do not have women who choose to wear headscarves unless it's cold out. Well-meaning feminists pick up on this difference as dangerous, a sign that women are being hidden from view (note the passive voice) as a means of disempowering them. Yet in reality, every hijabi student I have had in class has been an active student leader, and not just in the Muslim Students Association.

It is true that some men may force their wives or daughters to dress a certain way against their will. But if you're going to crack down on domestic abuse, mental cruelty, and that sort of thing, let's do it on those grounds for all citizens, regardless of their religion. Forcing women to choose between their religious convictions and their opportunities for a public life is not a policy for a progressive society.

Spain

Have any of my readers ever been to Spain? In thinking about my planned Morocco travels, I've discovered that flying into Madrid is substantially cheaper than heading directly anywhere in Morocco, and so was considering that option. However, if it costs a few hundred dollars to get from Madrid to Fez, there would be no point. I'm assuming it won't, but I'm trying to get a better sense of the overall landscape.

Dean Supporters

Over at the Dean campaign blog, Deaniacs are coming up with ads to refute the laugh-inducing Club for Growth spot. Some of the results are rather amusing.

Iraqis of African Origin

The Washington Post today has an article on Iraqis of African descent which I found an okay read. It was focused mainly on southern Iraq, where during the Middle Ages many slaves known as the Zanj were brought from East Africa and forced to work clearing land. The Zanj Revolt of the late 9th century played a key role in the decline of the Abbasids, throwing the Indian Ocean trade from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and having shockwaves felt as far as India and Southeast Asia. (Alexander Popovic wrote a book about it.) The Post article falls a bit short, though, in its historical presentation: It claims to deal primarily with the Zanj, yet it takes its descriptions of slavery from a broad spectrum of the Middle East, where conditions were much better. Still, I found the accounts of how African traditions survived very interesting. A couple of years ago, I considered African influences on Middle Eastern society a possible area from which to draw a dissertation topic. I even applied for an SSRC fellowship on the subject, but got turned down and moved on to other things. It's still an interesting field, and one where a lot of work could be done.

Iranian Politics

The Council of Guardians is banning huge numbers of reformist candidates from standing in the upcoming elections for Parliament. If they succeed, the elections will be a complete sham. I have never before been so pessimistic on the chances for a peaceful political transformation of that country.

Iraqi WMD

Via Calpundit, I see that Kenneth Pollack, whose book The Threatening Storm was a major text for the pro-war movement, has an article in the Atlantic Monthly examining the question of why no WMD were found in Iraq. There's some interesting stuff in it, though I've realized my thoughts can be turned into an appropriate Dean Nation post, which I hope to produce in the near future. Here, though, I'll just say again that the lack of WMD was a surprise to pretty much everyone, as before the war the consensus was that they were there and the main debate was over whether inspections could find them.

And incidentally, I've seen the reports of blister gas discovered in Iraq. My initial reaction is that with so many false alarms, we should all just wait and see. However, a quick glance at Josh Marshall suggests another possibility. These were old weapons left over from the Iran-Iraq War. According to the information floating around, there were only 36 warheads, and many were actually leaking. In short, what we're looking at is probably more like the unexploded ammunition lying around Bosnia than a secret stockpile for future military operations.

The Return

I am now back in Madison, after a trip back the main theme of which was that people should always remember to check their blind spots before changing lanes, especially when I am in the lane into which they are changing. Upon my arrival, I quickly discovered that Wisconsin is currently cold, and that my mail didn't get delivered, which means I won't be using tomorrow to catch up on all my business matters after all. Unfortunately, the campus mail is probably delivering the same as always, which means I'll have a nice pile in my office Monday morning. At least I got some research-related stuff done over break.

Ethnic Divisions in Afghanistan

The new RFE-RL Afghan Report contains some interesting discussion on the role of ethnic differences in Afghanistan today. Experts quoted are concerned that these divisions may become a means for warlords to mobilize popular support for their personal ambitions. And at least one fears international policies may be making the situation worse and not better:

"My concern really has been that the process of creating the constitution, and most particularly the Constitutional Loya Jirga, has been one that instead of bridging divisions between people -- especially the ethnic divisions, which have been the most polarizing in Afghanistan -- in some ways, it has actually exacerbated these divisions by throwing the major debates on the constitution, by casting these almost entirely on ethnic lines."

This is the same phenomenon that bothers me in Iraq, where too many analysts seem inclined to unintentionally promote a divisive Sunni-Shi'ite split when Iraqi nationalism is itself a strong factor and when people I who know Iraq have told me their Iraqi friends are bothered by having to start identifying themselves as members of a religious group for political purposes. There are a lot of notions floating around policy circles about how people who are "different" are likely to interact based mainly off what happened in the Balkans after the fall of communism. The underlying social concepts in southeastern Europe are, however, not the same as those in Central Asia or the Middle East, and everyone needs to remain vigilant lest they apply the wrong lessons.

The Last Migration of the Falashas

Israel has announced plans to bring in the last 18,000 Ethiopian Jews, perhaps beginning as soon as next week. The Ethiopian Jewish community, known as Falashas, has been around for centuries. Its origins are uncertain, and it could have originated in anything from conversion during one of Judaism's missionary phases to some element of the Diaspora that simply wound up in Ethiopia. Israel has previously airlifted thousands of Falashas to the Jewish state in Operations Moses, Joshua, and Solomon. This time, however, Ethiopia is saying they don't see the need for such a mass migration when they can just emigrate normally.

I should also add here that Ethiopian Jews face a lot of discrimination within Israel. In addition to racism, many practices of Ethiopian Jews are unacceptable to the orthodox rabbinate that dominates Israel's official religious life. Stuff I've read in print, for example, discusses a number of humiliating procedures they must go through to get their marriages recognized. So these people might be escaping poverty, but there's still a hard road ahead.

Afghan Shi'ites' Rights

Via IWPR, I see that the new Afghan constitution recognizes the right of Shi'ites to use their own school of Islamic law. Some reports had suggested that everyone might be required to use Hanafi jurisprudence, one of the four schools of Sunni Islamic law.

Bush's Labor Policies

In case you haven't heard, President Bush's Labor Department is now advising companies on How to get out of paying their workers overtime. Tim Young has some good commentary on the subject:

"One unfortunate consequence of the failure of John Edwards' presidential campaign to catch on is that less attention is being given to a major campaign theme of his - that the Bush administration has embarked on a series of policies that are singularly harmful to the vast majority of Americans who have to work for a living.

"Whether it's trying to undo the 40-hour work week, gutting workplace safety protections, or - most notably - transforming federal tax and economic policy to disadvantage those who rely on the fruits of their labor vis-a-vis those who derive income from sitting on the accumulation of capital, there is a War on Workers afoot. "

I also blogged about this yesterday on Dean Nation, where I recommended (of course) Howard Dean's labor policies as the antidote. And while I know I have a few strongly anti-labor readers, consider: How else do we fight for fair working conditions in this country without simply relying on government to impose solutions from above? The union system may be imperfect, but at root it's about workers getting together to fight for a fair piece of the unprecedented American prosperity, a result of their labor which is all too easily monopolized by corporate bigwigs. And in today's new economy we need that almost as much as we did 100 years ago, or a two-class society is right around the corner.

Problems in Kirkuk

Back in June, I noted that deals reached in Kirkuk were good for about a year only, with the implication that complications lay in the future for this city where Saddam Hussein booted out Kurds and brought in Arab families as part of an "Arabization" program. Now before there is an agreement on the social situation, we have to deal with the issue of the oil-rich area's political future as Kurds clamor for greater autonomy ahead of the planned June 30 handover. Unfortunately, this makes recent outbreaks of violence somewhat predictable. The Iraqi nationalism which means Arab Sunnis and Shi'ites will likely hold together in a single state could mean trouble on the question of the Kurds, who as non-Arabs are left out of the Iraqi discourse as traditionally conceived. Arabs and Turkmen living in the north oppose any Kurdish autonomy, as do neighboring Syria and Turkey who have large Kurdish minorities of their own. Kirkuk is a sub-issue of this, and no decision has been made on whether it will be included in any established Kurdish region. There are no easy answers here, and unfortunately the signs are that the Bush administration will base its decisions on what looks best for the fall elections rather than long-term stability.

Iranian Women's Party

Today's RFE-RL Newsline reports that Iran is getting its first political party devoted specifically to women's issues, the Iranian Women's Party. Right after the revolution, Iran had almost no political parties, as under the Shah they had been simply an instrument of state control. The regime has continually promoted them, however, and now there are dozens, with the system seeming like it's gradually evolving into something along the Israeli model than that in Canada or the UK. Parliament actually matters, too, for while the top-tier systemic reforms advocated by President Khatami get stone-walled by the hard-liners, smaller social reforms have fared better. It remains to be seen, of course, whether this party will become a force in its own right or simply support candidates offered by other reformist parties.

Afghanistan's Constitution

Afghanistan's new constitution has been approved. According to the New York Times, everyone is happy. I'm going through a cynical phase right now, so I'll just say we should wait and see what happens. The document sounds like a good deal, if it can be implemented effectively.

Video Games in Iraq

IWPR reports on the video game craze in post-Saddam Iraq. It's causing a few social problems.

Faculty-Student Sex

This is the topic under discussion here, here, here, here and here. Frankly I'm surprised this idea is so controversial. Sleeping with one's students seems like such a prelude to colossal disaster that that I can never quite believe reports of it, even though I myself am 90% sure I've seen at least one case. There are also two Quincy University professors that married students, one right before I got there and one after I left. When I think of myself in that position, I can never quite get my mind around it - I simply can't see students in my class as anything other than my students, and I think I'm better off that way. I can socialize with them in my office, or if by chance I see them at a hockey game or something talk to them, but that's about it. I feel I have a duty to my students as a teacher - already a kind of personal relationship - and I have no place bringing other agendas.

That said, there are probably fringes of this issue where it becomes interesting. Students in my class are definitely out. By extension, I'd say students in the department are, as well - the entire notion just seems wrong to me for reasons I can't quite articulate. I guess my self-image is as someone developing into the consummate professional, and that just sort of interferes. However, at a school the size of UW, extending that to the entire undergraduate student body seems extreme. When I first came to campus, I was 22, and when I first taught, 23. If I were to take up with, say, a chemistry major, would it matter at all? True, at some point she would have to take a history class, but assuming the relationship worked in a healthy manner, it should be possible for us to arrange to simply not conflict with each other. Then there are forums like language classes where you find both graduate students and undergraduates - do I limit my social circle on the basis of people's course level? The notion seems preposterous. Admittedly, though, as I get older this seems like less and less of a relevant issue. In quiz bowl, for example, where I continue to hang around as a sort of organizational assistant, I did not look upon the freshman girls this year with the same level of interest as when I first arrived - at some point age gaps do start to show themselves.

I haven't thought my way through what sort of policies universities should adopt on this, if any. The need to defend against lawsuits is, of course, legitimate, but realistic policies seem difficult to write. One semester I became a lecturer, which gave me the classification of part-time faculty. Had I been dating another grad student, would I under the most draconian codes have been required to break it off for a few months? With the issues usually cited against faculty/student relationships, would such artificial non-dating even be meaningful? I mean, relationships are much harder to regulate than actions. Since I'm a rather chaste kind of guy, a ban on sex wouldn't impact me in the slightest, and from a legal standpoint who's is to decide if a "friendship" is really something more? At the other end of the spectrum, let's say the hypothetical undergraduate chemistry major met one of my students whom she also liked and was trying to decide between us. If the two have something planned for a weekend I'm inclined to give a large assignment, do I open myself to career-threatening evaluation comments by giving it, or hurt the class by holding off?

The mere fact someone would have to think about that shows the problems that can arise in these sorts of situations that are difficult to catch under anything but a draconian policy. The best thing to do is simply to use common sense and a dose of caution. If you and a student really do become desparate for each other, at the very least wait until he/she is no longer your student. Other than that, everyone will presumably find their own set of guidelines articulated or otherwise based on the experiences they've had and their knowledge of individual people and situations. Hopefully their emotional intelligence will be enough to keep them out of trouble.

Terror Warnings and the Yom Kippur War

Lately I've been reading Ahron Bregman's A History of Israel (partly by candlelight due to unreliable electricity). On pages 139-151, it contains an interesting account of the events leading up to the October 1973 Yom Kippur War, when Israel was caught off guard and faced perhaps the most serious military crisis in its history as Syrian and Egyptian forces made mincemeat of its unprepared defenses.

According to Bregman, Israeli intelligence had an agent highly placed in the Egyptian government. He had demonstrated his reliability on several occasions, most recently in exposing a Libyan plot to destroy an Israeli jetliner in retaliation for the Israeli destruction of a Libyan plane earlier in the year. From him they learned a great deal about Egyptian plans and operational concerns which formed the basis of Israel's defensive thinking. Now in September, Israel received word that Egypt and Syria were preparing a joint attack for the immediate future. The Egyptian agent, however, said the attack was planned some time later.

On October 5, 1973, Prime Minister Golda Meir met with her Cabinet to discuss a mobilization of the reserves in response to the possible invasion. A decision was made to leave everything as was. In April 1973, the Egyptian informant had passed on serious evidence of an imminent invasion, resulting in a national mobilization plan called Blue-White. When no invasion materialized, there was a public outcry at the hassles and waste of money for no reason. The Cabinet feared the political risks of making the same mistake twice. What they did not realize, however, was that Israel's top agent in Egypt was really Egypt's top agent in Israel. The attack warning in the spring was a ploy to lull Israel in complacency, and the planned attack on an Israeli jet was an attempt to ensure the agent's trustworthiness to Mossad with one hand while trying to keep on good terms with Libya on the other. On October 6, 1973 the Egyptian and Syrian armies marched while Israel faced a barrage from almost 300 warplanes and thousands of artillery shells a minute.

We can be cynical about the Bush administration, but intelligence is not an exact science, and all things are not always as they appear. There are, as the old saying goes, plans within plans within plans. It is far better to be safe than sorry when the price of being wrong could be thousands of lives. That is why, in the absence of firm evidence that I should, I will never attack President Bush over a terror warning. The one to criticize him over will be the one he shies away from when we really need it. Let us hope that day never comes.

Names

Brian is the #20 most common male name. 0.736% of men in the US are named Brian. Around 901600 US men are named Brian!
source namestatistics.com

Ulrich is the #2169 most common last name. 0.006% of last names in the US are Ulrich. Around 15000 US last names are Ulrich!
source namestatistics.com

Golan Settlements

I keep reading about how Israel's plans to expand settlements in the Golan Heights are expected to set back the peace process with Syria. I think, however, there's another lens through which this move could be viewed: If Sharon were serious about removing West Bank settlements, he would have to do something to keep the far right in his coalition happy. Syria's conventional military capability makes it a serious long-term threat to Israel, but Palestinian terrorism is an immediate threat and the one he seems more concerned with. Of course, I don't know what percentage of settlers and their supporters would find new settlements on the Golan an acceptable compensation for removing some in the West Bank. Still, I should probably start paying more attention to this situation.

Not for Sheep

Not for Sheep has two posts that might be of interest to prospective law students, one on networking and another on your first summer. More importantly, though, she has this exchange:

Customer: (very angry) Excuse me?!? I'm not "Mr."--you can call me "Doctor!"
My brother: (slightly sarcastic) Fine. Then you can call me "Customer Service Associate."

Russian Jews

It just occurred to me that there have historically been a huge number of Russian (and Eastern European) Jews, but after considering it, I haven't the foggiest idea where they came from. The Jewish Diaspora through the Roman and Persian worlds wouldn't have extended to lands beyond those two empires. I know there was at least one major Turkish group that converted to Judaism in medieval times (the Khazars), but I vaguely recall reading a refutation of the idea that Russian Jews were descended from these groups. So how did so many Jews wind up in the belt from Berlin to the Caspian? I know my readers include several Jewish history types. Was there some eastern migration of West European Jews at some point or something?

New Year's Eve

New Year's Eve sucks. I think after the turn of the millennium, everything seems sort of dull. At some point I need to reinvent my celebrations, either when I have friends around to hang out with or an opportunity for some sort of romantic night out. Until then, I have trouble getting into things.

More Return of the King

I just saw Return of the King again. It seems obvious just how much was cut from the theatrical release. The Wytch-King's pledge to break Gandalf obviously remains unfulfilled without their confrontation, and Theoden's sudden flip-flop on riding to Gondor also probably has an intermediate step to it somewhere. My brother also thought there should have been a scene beefing up Sauron's reasons for taking the bait when the armies ride to the Black Gate, probably involving the palantir, though neither of us had read the books recently enough to see what happens there. Still, I hope I get to see it at least once more, probably when it comes to the budget theater in Madison. With most movies it doesn't matter what size screen you see it on, but with Lord of the Rings it definitely does, and once it finally leaves the theaters it's never coming back.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq

For a while now, I haven't been too happy with the conventional buzz about Saudi Arabia, which seems to make the key mistake of assuming the Saudi royal family is a monolith secretly dedicated to destroying Western civilization. So I was glad to see this Foreign Affairs article giving a more complex account of the interaction between certain groups of Saudi royals, Saudi Arabian reformists, the Wahhabi establishment, and militant groups such as al-Qaeda.

Anyone seriously interested in Saudi politics needs to read this in full. For now, though, I want to call attention to two key points. One is the fact that the conservative Prince Nayef turned on the militants after the May 2003 terrorist bombings in Riyadh. Before that, he had seen them as useful tools in countering Saudi reformists. Bear in mind that the reformists are a key constituency of Crown Prince Abdullah, who as seen by his title is one of the leading contenders to succeed King Fahd. So Prince Nayef's relationship with the militants is a two-way street - yes, they rely to an extent on his largesse, but he also relies on them as a key domestic constituency in intra-Saudi power struggles.

Now take a look at the discussion of the Shi'ites. Wahhabi ideology considers Shi'ites to be worse than Jews. They believe Shi'ism is a perversion of true Islam inspired by Judaism, and that Jews, Shi'ites, and Americans are looped together in some sort of conspiracy to destroy the Islamic world. Crown Prince Abdullah has been reaching out to Shi'ites as part of his reform efforts. Conservatives, on the other hand, are ratcheting up the anti-Shi'ite rhetoric.

In the middle of all this, the United States invaded Iraq, tossing out Saddam Hussein and placing power in the hands of secularizers and Shi'ites. These conservative Wahhabi clerics and militants have to see this as a vindication of their suspicions. However, what I want to link this to at the moment is my sense that the Bush administration is preparing to abandon Iraq. Because if people like Prince Nayef want to find a way to hurt the reformers that doesn't threaten the entire Saudi establishment, it goes something like this: Put them to work against the "Judeo-Shi'ite threat" on their northern border. Sour relations between Saudi Arabia on the one hand and the U.S. and IGC on the other. Keep the anti-Shi'ite forces in Iraq strong - I'm guessing that Sunni leaders who took money from Saddam won't object to getting it from the Saudis. And keep portraying Saudi Arabia's Shi'ites as in league with Iraq's, an integral part of the "Evil Global Conspiracy" that also oppresses the Palestinians and takes whatever measures the U.S. is taking against the guerrillas in Iraq. Crown Prince Abdullah's hand is thus badly weakened, and Prince Nayef and Co. gain greater influence and potentially the throne.

This is something we should worry about. For one thing, lots of people will die as violence in Iraq continues. You'd also probably see the creation of areas for al-Qaeda operation within the Sunni-dominated region of the country. In addition, if we want to go about breaking the Saudi-al-Qaeda connection as part of the War on Terror, it almost has to start by ensuring the success of the faction which opposes them already, rather than one partially dependent on them and their ideology. Hopefully, the Bush administration is doing something quietly here we just don't know about. But I'm not sure I have faith.

UPDATE: I should add a mention here that someone knowledgeable just mentioned to me they disagreed with several of the points in the Doran article, though they didn't mention specifics.

War and Politics

Via Daily Kos, I found this Washington Post story which contained some surprisingly clear signals about what the administration's up to in Iraq:

"'There's no question that many of the big-picture items have been pushed down the list or erased completely,' said a senior U.S. official involved in Iraq's reconstruction, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. 'Right now, everyone's attention is focused [on] doing what we need to do to hand over sovereignty by next summer.'

"The new approach, U.S. diplomats said, calls into question the prospects for initiatives touted by conservative strategists to fashion Iraq into a secular, pluralistic, market-driven nation. While the diplomats maintain those goals are still attainable, the senior official said, 'ideology has become subordinate to the schedule.'"

This is the second time in as many days that I've seen U.S. officials declare planned schedules the key factor underlying significant foreign policy decisions. The stated goals of American foreign policy have become subservient to making President Bush look good during an election year. This is not, I think, a healthy thing given the grave threats which continue to exist in the world today, prompting orange alerts during the holiday season and the like. I do not think the U.S. would be wise to try to completely reinvent Iraqi society as the neocons hoped. However, the U.S. has both a moral obligation and a national security imperative to leave a stable Iraq, and it seems the Bush administration is intent on abandoning both.

Let's be clear about what the stakes are here. While I've generally said I don't think Iraq will break up a la Yugoslavia, I do think civil war is a possibility, and that anarchy like Somalia's or a government which doesn't control large areas of the country like Yemen's would be a worse national security threat than Saddam Hussein. There's a fair amount of evidence that al-Qaeda-esque groups are starting to play a role in Iraq. These groups thrive in poor and failed states where they can trade wealth for protection at either the local or national level, setting up shop outside the reach of responsible governments. There's also the danger that an unstable Iraq could draw in outside powers, most notably Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. My regular readers will remember from over the summer how conflict among India, Iran and Pakistan is affecting the rebuilding in Afghanistan, and how Uzbekistan appears to be keeping Dostum around in the north as their proxy much like Iran supports Ismail Khan. This in turn is hindering stabilization in that country keeping the door open for the Taliban resurgence. You could see similar conditions play out in Iraq, only in the heart of the Middle East with oil at stake instead of opium.

I will reserve a special mention for the Saudi danger, which I hope to go into in the near future.

President Bush will not be the first chief executive to make national security subservient to political interests, but it's never good when it happens, as those who remember the Vietnam War can well attest. All we can do right now is argue the case for staying the course and keep our fingers crossed.

Developments in Afghanistan

According to the RFE-RL Daily Afghan Report (link will vanish), the U.S. and UN differ about whether to hold elections this June as planned. The UN wants to delay for six to twelve months until the security situation improves. The U.S. wants to plow ahead with the existing timetable. (I'm cynical enough to believe that President Bush's re-election is a major factor in the U.S. timetable.) The next step, however, is to produce a constitution. I do see as good the fact that the U.S. plans to set up bases closer to the front in southern and eastern Afghanistan.

UPDATE: IWPR gives an account of some developments at the constitutional loya jirga. Thw three main changes to previous drafts are weakening the Presidency, removing references to the UN Declaration on Human Rights, and specifying that women are citizens. There are several more articles still under discussion, such as whether Shi'ites should be allowed to use Shi'ite Islamic law.

Iranian Earthquake

I didn't blog any about yesterday's earthquake in Iran, partly due to computer problems, and partly because I didn't have anything to say. Matthew Yglesias did, however:

"Natural catastrophes are, I think, always particularly awful because the seem so devoid of meaning. The tectonic plates don't hate freedom, they're not just after the oil, they're not neo-imperialists they're just -- plates -- shifting around. 18th century people found the Lisbon earthquake very disturbing to both theistic and naive enlightement worldviews and, I think, rightly so."

Christians in Iraq

Juan Cole is posting about Iraqi Christians, one of my minor academic interests. The article he links to unfortunately skimps over the Middle Ages, though. Most Christians in Iraq belong to churches stemming from the Nestorian branch of the faith, which began a separate evolution due to Christological controversies in the late Roman centuries. During the Middle Ages they were perhaps the greatest missionaries in Christianity, and expanded throughout Central Asia and into India. The Nestorian Patriarchate grew close to the Muslim authorities, and at least some of the Abbasids sought to appoint the Patriarch of Baghdad over all the other Christians, though this doesn't appear to have had much impact. (This is the same period when due to Abbasid influence the Babylonian Talmud came to supercede the Palestinian within Judaism.)

The most magnificient Nestorian Patriarch was probably Timothy I, a contemporary of Charlemagne and Harun ar-Rashid. I'm working from memory here, but I have to try to tell a story about him. When his predecessor died and the bishops were selecting the new Patriarch, he had some sacks filled with rocks and promised that the bishops would receive their contents if he became Patriarch. He was then duly elected, and proceeded to reveal the contents of the sacks: rocks. He then proclaimed that the highest religious office could not be purchased. Several of the bishops were offended enough by this unholy deception that they converted to Islam and were replaced. (I think there was also an aborted attempt to replace him...sorry, but I don't have good sources around me.)

For the best book on medieval Asian Christianity in general, read this one.

Christmas

Christmas stuff appears to be winding down over here. My bayberry candle is burning at a pretty good clip, thus ensuring I will have good luck in the coming year. Christmas was a bit more mobile for us than usual: Due to logistical reasons, my grandmother can no longer get into our house, so yesterday we took her out to dinner at a local restaurant and then over to see her sister-in-law (now de facto sister), my Great Aunt Mary, whom I also hadn't seen in ages. Then this afternoon we took grandma's presents to her in the retirement home, along with a cell phone so she could call out-of-town relatives. My brother and I also stopped to say "hi" to our old music teacher's widow, who didn't have anyone around for the holidays. Christmas Eve and Christmas morning stuff followed our usual patterns. I was especially happy with the cookie jar I gave my mother.

Regular news-related blogging will resume either tomorrow or Saturday, depending on life. Until then, I will either be perusing the Babylon 5 complete third season DVD or poking around with a computer game my brother gave me.

Merry Christmas

"Seo Feile an Ri Bhig, seo Feile 'bheidh buan
A Sheas tris na haoiseann' 's go la lom an Luain
Guim Nollaig dheas aoibhinn gach si agus suan
Ar chairde mo chroise go sroisfidh siad Cuan"

-Seamus Begley and Stephen Cooney (Coinnle an Linbh Iosa)

(This is the Festival of the Little King. a festival that will last
It will last through the ages until the Day of Judgement.
I wish a nice pleasant Christmas, peace and joy
To the friends of my heart - May they reach their Harbour.)

Crossroads of Twilight

I've now finished Crossroads of Twilight, Book Ten in Robert Jordan's Wheel of Time series. It's mind-boggling how little could actually happen in an 820-page book. However, I think it went a long way toward redeeming the past few volumes of the series, and may set up a good final push to the promised Book Twelve finale.

Let me explain. Rand al'Thor, the Dragon Reborn, is supposed to fight the Dark One at the Last Battle. Most fear that he will bring a second Breaking of the World, and the prophecies certainly speak of lots of chaos and destruction. However, it seems evident that Rand himself is trying to build things, and there's some evidence he might bring back much of the Age of Legends. In Lord of the Rings, Tolkein declared the Third Age over largely by fiat: The Elves left Middle-Earth because "their day was over," the the end of the threat from Mordor removed the enemy who had previously dominated the world.

In Rand's world, however, actual changes are happening in the course of the trilogy. Take all the bondings between people who can channel that have happened in seemingly random plot threads: Alanna/Rand, Logain and those Aes Sedai, Cadsuane's Aes Sedai and certain Ash'aman. This sets a stage for certain things that happen near the end of CoT that both point to a serious social change regarding the One Power. Egwene's plans for the future of the Aes Sedai also point in this direction, and I'm starting to suspect that the whole "Bowl of the Winds" mission was as much about discovering the Kin as it was getting Mat to the Seanchan.

It'll be interesting to see how much of the seemingly random milling around ultimately points toward some key developments along these lines, which given the fact changing the world was always a key point of the Dragon's future is clearly important to Jordan's vision. I still think the last few books have been weaker than earlier installments, though, just because Jordan seems to have run out of discoveries. The series that early on hit us with the World of Dreams, those alternate realities from The Great Hunt, Rhuidean, a seemingly invincible army of the dead via the Horn of Valere, the Ways, and so on has turned pretty much everything into a plot device. An important meeting of the Hall of the Tower doesn't have nearly the same impact as Rand's decision to blow the horn at Falme or the same drama of his announcement to the Tairens in the Stone in The Shadow Rising.

At the same time, key characters, such as Loial and Thom Merrilin, seem to be in storage waiting for the plot to catch up to where they're going to do the things everyone expects them to do, emphasizing just how much the overall battle against the Shadow is spinning its wheels. I'd be surprised if Jordan's original plan called for resurrecting Forsaken, or if he just needed some significant enemies hanging around. However, certain things from the end of the book made it seem like things are finally about to start moving - at the very least, there's been a directional shift from different groups splintering to groups coming back together or uniting in new ways. And that leads to interesting possibilities that make me look forward to the next installment.

Pakistani Politics

Zack Ajmal has some informed commentary on Pakistani politics. His core point is a refutation of the common notion that Pervez Musharraf is all that stands between the country and a fundamentalist takeover. Go have a look.

Lasagna

My wonderful mother made lasagna, my favorite food, yesterday. This was a good thing. Except she kept apologizing because she assumed I like meaty lasagna. I admit I haven't really reflected on different lasanga varieties, except I hate it when they put cucumbers and the like in it. Given my usual tastes, however, a cheese-heavy variety is just fine.

As you can tell, I'm currently at my parents' house in Quincy. Expect some blogging, however, due to their acquisition of a new computer located in the room where I sleep, and soon a more reliable internet connection.

Return of the King

The Return of the King is a very strong conclusion to a great adaptation of a great trilogy. I think the most memorable scenes from this movie were its vistas, msot notably the lighting of the beacons adn some of the Pelennor Fields stuff. Minas Tirith somehow seemed less than I expected - the strongest scenes in that city probably remain the ones of Aragorn's funeral in the Two Towers dream sequence. The landscape of Rohan also continued to impress. I agree with Ed Cohn that the battles had less of a personal element, except for the hobbits fighting, but find that overall character development was fairly strong. Frodo and Sam's relationship was well handled, as usual, Pippin gained in maturity and experience, Aragorn took up the mantle of kingship, and Merry and Theoden each showed how far they've come.

If anything got shorted, it was the Faramir/Denethor plotline. The character of Denethor loses a lot without the palantir, and if I'm a viewer unfamiliar with the books I'm probably wondering what exactly that black globe was all about anyway. We never see the resolution of Faramir's character, despite the way in which it was here set up. We also never see Eomer become king, thiugh we're left with the impression. The absence of "The Scouring of the Shire" and "The Voice of Saruman" are less of a problem for me, though again viewers might wonder whether Saruman was just kept in his tower forever.

If you get the chance to see this movie, do, on as big a screen as possible. If you don't know the Tolkein universe that well, though, a glance through the previous movies is a must.

Libyan WMD

For what it's worth, I think it's a mistake to credit the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq for Libya's decision to give up all its WMD programs. Libya has been inching toward a rapprochememt with the rest of the world for quite some time, as seen in everything from the Lockerbie deal to Qadhafi's public support for the war against the Taliban. It may be fears of some military invasion gave added impetus to this, but then again, the fact we're completely bogged down in Iraq means not much was going to happen in the near future. Juan Cole has an interesting analysis of Libya's economic and political situation, which seems to me a more likely explanation.

Libya's economy is over 90% dependent on oil, and the grade of oil available, Libyan Light Sweet Crude, is among the best in the world. Qadhafi, while a ruthless dictator, is a grade or two less evil than Saddam, and would very much like to get his country's economy moving again. This article gives a brief description of Libya's interests in ending sanctions. I'd like to know in detail the differences between the sanctions on Libya and those on Iraq which Cole refers to, but can't find them.

Winter Solstice

I've always been intrigued by the Winter Solstice, which occurs this year at 2:04 a.m. New York time on December 22. In cultures all around the world, it has been a day which marks renewal, as days start to become longer and we head along the road towards spring. Thus, even amidst the depths of winter, people have found hope for the rebirth of all life. Many customs associated with winter holidays have Winter Solstice origins, some of which you can read about here. As Christmas tends to be a time when I ground myself in the things that are most important to me in life, I find the concepts of renewal inherent in the day a good metaphor to which people of all faiths can relate. Thus, may you all find sustenance and hope on the darkest of nights and go forward into the new year filled with the wonder of life.

Here is a collection of Solstice links you might find interesting.

Arab Street Bum's Merry Christmas

This is rather funny.

Little Saddams

Salaam Jihad writing for IWPR has a brief article about the position of former Ba'athists in Iraq and the public's relationship with them. It's worth checking out. As usual, IWPR's stories delve much more into the knitty-gritty of today's Iraq than traditional media sources.

Tonight

I ran out to West Town Mall earlier to pick up a last-minute Christmas gift. The place was packed beyond belief, and I assure you that despite all the usual signs and painted directions on the drives, there were no laws on that parking lot tonight.

It is a beautiful night out. There are lots of stars in the sky, and the streets are quiet. If it weren't so cold, I'd probably go for a walk. All that's missing is lots of crunchy snow.

Iranian Reformers Discuss

RFE-RL's most recent Iran Report describes the internal politics of the reform movement in the run-up to February's Parliamentary elections. Some parties within President Khatami's coalition favor more aggressive pursuit of reforms than supported by the largest party, Khatami's Militant Clerics Association. However, it looks like the reformists will hold together for election purposes.

Also in that report is a round-up of Iranian reaction to Saddam Hussein's capture. Everyone was happy.

Vinni

World Press Review has a profile of Pakistani human rights campaigner Humaira Awais Shahid which also describes her main cause, ending vinni, or forced marriages in northwestern Pakistan. Women and girls are exchanged as a means of ending clan rivalries, and become little more than servants in their new environment. This practice runs contrary to Islam (obviously), but as so often happens, local custom trumps the formal teachings of religion even after a period of centuries. Fortunately legislation against the practice passed the Pakistani legislature unanimously. Since Pakistani control over the Northwest Frontier Province is notoriously weak, however, I don't know how much impact that will have on the ground.

Dean and Muslim Politics

Over at Dean Nation, I explain why I think Howard Dean and Muslim voters are a good match. Shadi Hamid also writes about this in Muslim WakeUp! And on a related note, be sure to check out Kucinich supporter al-Muhajabah on the state of Muslim political organization in the United States.

Muhammad Choukri

This obituary tells you all about how Muhammad Choukri was a great writer and intellectual, but the obituary here we read in class told you that for a period of several years he had sex with several women every day, hitting a one-day high of nine different women at age 19.

Loya Jirga Watch

So far the biggest news out of Afghanistan's constitutional assembly is the female delegate who was asked to leave after criticizing the warlords. She has been allowed back in, but is now under UN protection. The articles mentions that women tend to be more outspoken because in Afghan culture they are less likely to be killed.

Santa Claus

Some editorials never grow outdated:

"Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus. He exists as certainly as love and generosity and devotion exist, and you know that they abound and give to your life its highest beauty and joy. Alas! how dreary would be the world if there were no Santa Claus! It would be as dreary as if there were no Virginias. There would be no child-like faith then, no poetry, no romance to make tolerable this existence. We should have no enjoyment, except in sense and sight. The eternal light with which childhood fills the world would be extinguished."

Arabic Words

"tushi'a" - (verb) to pretend to be a Shi'ite

Humiliating

Ocean Guy finds a common theme in Arab writing about the capture of Saddam: Humiliation. Tom Friedman has also talked about this frequently, though I doubt the two would agree on appropriate policies on a lot of issues.

A concern for honor and humiliation is certainly not unique to the Arab world - it frequently seems to come up in American relations with China, for example. However, the looming question with the Arab world is why this concern for humiliation seems to have destructive results, like supporting Saddam Hussein (from afar) or endorsing terrorism against Israel. Zeyad tries to explain his feelings, which you'll have to read for yourself. Most Arabs living in other countries were probably just reacting to Saddam as a symbol against the U.S., not getting just how bad conditions in Iraq truly were. This may parallel Americans who cheer on dubious regimes against our chosen enemies.

That's the Iraqi case, however, and doesn't have that much bearing on the wider sense of humiliation on the Arab world. And here, I want to posit a theory: Humiliation is merely the concept in which a set of social and political issues is cast. Let's face it: Accounts of American searches of homes in Iraq describe things that could, in fact, be described as humiliating. Occupying a country could be seen as humiliating, as well, though Americans tend to cast such things in terms of freedom and empowerment. Even when I read an interview with Sanullah Ibrahim, the Egyptian writer who recently refused an Egyptian prize, I find a list of social ills that could easily be called "humiliating," though that is again not the way we would describe them.

I don't share Ocean Guy's pessimism - it really seems that Arabs and Americans have far more concerns that unite us than divide us. The major obstacles are not cultural, but political, as certain Arab governments foster extremism while blaming others for all their problems. At the same time, these governments suppress cultural and political development as a means of staying in power, a concern which also hinders economic modernization so as not to trod on the interests of those heavily invested in the current systems. And as is all too evident, the U.S. has been more than willing to support these regimes, leading to cynicism about our adherence to our professed ideals.

Anyway, these are just some thoughts. I'd be interested in hearing what others think.

Riverbend on Post-Saddam Baghdad

Riverbend has a report on the aftermath of Saddam's being captured. It's worth glancing over in full, but here's an excerpt:

"Yesterday was almost as messy. Most parents kept their kids home. There have been pro-America demonstrations in some areas, and anti-America demonstrations in other areas. At around 6 pm yesterday evening, the chaos began in Amriyah, a residential area in Baghdad. The streets were suddenly filled with anti-American demonstrators, some holding up pictures of Saddam. It lasted until around 11 pm and then the tanks pulled up and things settled down somewhat. Similar occurrences in A'adhamiya in Baghdad, and one or two other areas."

UPDATE: I should also link to Ziyad of Healing Iraq.

Crime and Punishment

According to the Washington Post, at the time of his capture Saddam Hussein was reading Crime and Punishment. Via Angry Arab.

Dean's Foreign Policy Speech

This was a good speech. More later...

"Now, when America should be at the height of its influence, we find ourselves, too often, isolated and resented. America should never be afraid to act alone when necessary. But we must not choose unilateral action as our weapon of first resort. Leaders of the current administration seem to believe that nothing can be gained from working with nations that have stood by our side as allies for generations. They are wrong, and they are leading America in a radical and dangerous direction. We need to get back on the right path."

Rumsfeld and Saddam

Matthew Yglesias raises the issue of past American support for Saddam. Many good points are found both in his post and the comments thread.

Skepticism on Afghanistan

Via TAPPED, I find a Los Angeles Times editorial on Afghanistan's constitutional process that I think makes some key points. The Consitution under consideration would create a very strong Presidency on the theory that this is what is necessary to control the country's warlords. However, the warlords are a problem not because they have too much power under the law, but because they have loyal armies and access to local revenues. Giving the President the power to declare a state of emergency will not negate that advantage of the warlords choose to resist central control. I'm not sure a federal system is the answer as far as moving toward purer democracy is concerned, but it at least has a better chance of ensuring peace in the country.

Getting a Piece of Saddam

Everyone talks about how Saddam was a menace to his own people, but Iran is also gunning for a piece of him due to the fact he invaded their country and used WMD against them. I'd expect to hear from Kuwait, too, as well as Israel for his support of Palestinian suicide bombers.

More Good News

This isn't a flashy as the capture of Saddam, but according to Juan Cole, the IGC and Iran have reached an agreement to allow 3000 pilgrims daily to enter Iraq from Iran. This will pour hundreds of millions of dollars into the Iraqi economy and set in motion the sort of ideological corss-fertilization that has stagnated in recent decades but historically been one of Islam's major strengths.

Saddam Captured

Today, the United States military captured one of the worst dictators of the 20th century. He was dug out of a pit on a farm near Tikrit. So much for the man who killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis to stay in power, not to mention starting wars of aggression that killed hundreds of thousands more. Say what you will about President Bush's ultimate intentions in Iraq, but no regime we install will be as bad as Saddam Hussein, and if we play our cards right, when future generations look back they will see this as another example of the U.S. acting in the world as a force for good.

Regarding the immediate future, however, I am unclear. I am unconvinced that Saddam Hussein's capture will significantly disrupt the resistance. Even if he is playing some coordinating role, people who would fight for him would fight for any number of Sunni nationalist groups which have sprung up throughout the country to oppose the U.S. I certainly don't get assertions that this news will help with the capture of Bin Laden and the stabilization of Afghanistan. Still, I'm pumped by this. Whatever happens next, this is a great day for Iraq, and a great day for the United States under President Bush's leadership.

For further reading, check out Angry Arab's rant. (Archives are weird...look for the top three entries on December 14.)

UPDATE: Juan Cole has his reflections, including a laundry list of some of Saddam's atrocities and what will happen next. Also check out Theoria's Daily Kos diary entry.

Diplomacy

Ouch! I need to stop trusting people in this game. It never actually works, even for a turn or two. (I am Russia.)