Thursday, February 24, 2005

Kyrgyzstan Scenarios

Writing in IWPR, Muratbek Imanaliev lays out some scenarios for post-elections Kyrgyzstan, including the idea that a pro-regime Parliament might find some way to legally allow Akaev to remain in office past this year. However, with the opposition showing so much spine lately, wouldn't that have the same effect as a stolen election? Of greater concern is Imanaliev's contention that the regime can survive based on the kinship ties among the various interest groups. As noted before, Kyrgyzstan's minority communities also support Akaev.

Kyrgyzstan isn't Ukraine, but that doesn't mean nothing will change. You can't tie yourself to everyone in the country, and those who aren't tied to the regime represent a pool the opposition can draw on for support. Russia at least is hedging its bets.


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