Ibrahim Jaafari

So, Ibrahim Jaafari is now set to become Prime Minister of Iraq. In some ways, this matters little. He may want the occupation to end, but won't ask us to leave while the security situation is so bad. He reportedly has a greater willingness to negotiate with the insurgents than did Allawi, but some reports suggest negotiations are already taking place. And as Juan Cole points out, his commitment to de-Ba'athification may hinder his attempts at Sunni outreach. Jaafari's main importance lies in the fact he was chosen through a democratic process. Whether that can become the rule in Iraqi politics rather than the exception remains an open question, and I can't see how we're any closer today to finding the answer.