Uzbekistan's Feuding Elite

I'd noted in passing that two daughters of Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov were engaging in an unusually high-profile feud involving corruption investigations, and thought it might be related to what might happen after Karimov's rule ends, but I haven't kept up with Central Asia for several years, and so wasn't sure how much sense that made.  The IWPR provides good context, however, noting the importance of a faction around Rustam Inoyatov, director of the SNB, Uzbekistan's internal security agency:

A Tashkent-based political analyst who asked to remain anonymous agreed with this view, arguing that Inoyatov’s group appeared to be hoping that placed under enough pressure, Gulnara (Karimova) would make a fatal error that would knock her out as a contender...

From the outside, post-Soviet Uzbekistan looks like a monolithic authoritarian system with Karimov at the top. A more accurate picture is one where different political factions vie for attention and power, and come in and out of favour. The president, meanwhile, stays in charge by adeptly playing one group off against another...

Inoyatov and his allies are from Tashkent, although the anonymous expert interviewed for this report argues that there are two factions here rather than one. There is the security-agency faction around Inoyatov, and a technocratic group including Prime Minister Shavqat Mirzoev and his deputy Rustam Azimov...

Karimov will be 77 by the time of the next election (in 2015), and much speculation surrounds whether he will wish to stand again. He does not discuss the matter himself, nor is it a topic for the state-run media. He has run Uzbekistan since the late Soviet period, and has been re-elected several times over, engineering extra terms by changing the constitution...

Yuldashev does not predict an overt challenge, but believes that Inoyatov’s group may already be seeking to ease Karimov out.

By this reading, the Tashkent-based Inoyatov faction used the corruption ruckus to dismantle the Gulnara Karimova's economic empire and effectively remove her as a possibly presidential contender.

Chinese in Uzbekistan

China's growing footprint in Central Asia is causing an increase in Uzbeks studying Chinese:

Central Asia's first Confucius Institute -- dedicated to promoting Chinese language and culture worldwide – was established in Tashkent in 2005...

As the institute prepares to open a second Uzbek branch, many local universities and schools are adding Chinese to their curriculum.

In Tashkent alone at least three major universities -- the School of Oriental Studies, the School of World Economy and Diplomacy, and the World Languages University -- offer extensive classes on Chinese language and culture...

China's official Xinhua news agency quotes the Chinese consul to Tashkent, Wang Kaixuan, as saying that more than 410 Chinese companies have been registered in Uzbekistan...

China ranks as Uzbekistan's largest foreign investor (accounting for just over 35 percent of foreign direct investment), and it is the Central Asian country's second largest trade partner, with trade expected to reach nearly $4 billion this year.

Against Hijab Sales

Uzbekistan already forbids wearing distinctively Islamic clothing in public. Now there is a ban on selling it:

"Traditional Islamic dress for women has disappeared from display in several markets in the Uzbek capital Tashkent following a secretive ban on sales...

"Traders say tax officials have begun fining stores selling the coats and headscarves that make up 'hijab', the form of dress worn by devout Muslim women. Hijab has disappeared from the Chorsu, Kuyluk, Otchopa and Urikzor markets. The authorities have also confiscated all stock from some stalls caught selling the clothing, they said.

"Tashkent businesswoman Mutabar, who imports goods from Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, still offers the items to customers, but only in secret...

"Officials in Tashkent confirmed the ban was in place but were reluctant to comment in detail."

IWPR's sources also report that authorities are shutting down halal cafes, which prepare food according to Islamic law. Part of the background to these moves is the Soviet background of the Central Asian ruling class. Soviet education was even more against Islam than it was Christianity; I know lots of Azerbaijani religious leaders were dropped from aircraft into the Black Sea. These prejudices have only been buttressed by the rise of Islamic extremism in the territory.

Dressing according to conservative definitions of Islamic modesty is still legal, as Uzbek traditional clothing which covers the head is still legal. What seems to be happening is that authorities are specifically concerned about the distinct attire called "hijab," mainly a headscarf originally associated with the Muslim Brotherhood but widely used among Muslims as a modest addition to westernized dress. Uzbekistan's authorities see it as a foreign ideological assertion. Why they think the ideology will go away if they ban the outward symbols is unclear.

Iftar in Uzbekistan

Uzbek authorities are apparently afraid of the communal meals which break the Ramadan fast:

"The official body in charge of Islam in Uzbekistan has ordered Muslims not to end their daily Ramadan fasts by eating out together in public.

"As in other Muslim countries, people in Uzbekistan end each day’s fasting after sunset with a meal called 'iftar'.

"Some welcome the ban as it will curb the lavish feasts thrown by the rich and powerful using the iftar as an excuse. That was the explanation offered by the Muslim directorate, the state-backed clerical establishment, which said it had agreed the measure with police and other government agencies as the month Ramadan got under way on August 11...

"But others point out that it will also prevent ordinary people from enjoying the iftar as a communal event. In that sense, the ban appears to reflect the Uzbek government’s fear of any form of Islamic practice that it cannot control.

"According to a resident of the western city of Samarkand, many people did not have the facilities for cooking for many guests at home. In addition, he said the local authorities banned people from inviting significant numbers of guests to the iftar."

Karimov Youth

Uzbekistan is creating youth groups to augment its border security:

"The Uzbek authorities are recruiting a volunteer police force to help patrol the country’s borders.

"The force is being set up under the aegis of Kamolot, an official youth movement. Kamolot issued a statement on May 25 saying volunteer squads were being created in 'mahallas', neighbourhoods which come under the lowest tier of local government

"The Kamolot Posbonlari ('sentinels') will be deployed along the borders with Kazakstan and Tajikistan, and help the law-enforcement agencies tackle smuggling.

"An insider source in Uzbekistan says the country’s military has a significant presence in frontier areas, and is surely better placed to deal with smugglers than volunteer youth groups."

What this is really about, I suspect, is the government's interest in developing ways to socialize youth into its own ideology and loyalty to the regime.

Uzbek Cotton, Again

Farangis Najibullah looks at the persistence of child labor in Uzbekistan's cotton fields:

"With the potential for fallout from major retailers, critics wonder why adults would not be employed in the cotton fields instead of children, particularly in a country with rampant unemployment. After all, with the largest population in Central Asia with 28 million inhabitants, Uzbekistan has an ample adult work force.

"Uzbek farmers say the answer is simple: Child labor is preferred because it's cheap. Children receive as little as $.03 for every kilogram of cotton they pick.

"Ferghana-based rights activist Bahodir Elboev says the pay is so low that it cannot compare to the money adult men can earn working as seasonal laborers abroad.

"'If a grown-up man works casual jobs he makes at least $6-7 a day and can earn some $200 a month,' Elboev says. 'Farmers never pay anyone $200 a month!'...

"He adds that even if officials were to stop recruiting children for cotton farming, widespread poverty would lead many families to send their children to the fields anyway.

"Many Uzbeks believe that unless farmers receive decent payment for their work, making the cotton industry a lucrative source of income not only for those who sell the product abroad but also for those who work in the fields -- the practice of child labor will remain entrenched in Uzbekistan."

This doesn't mean the problem doesn't go back to the government, as it's ultimately government interests in Uzbekistan that decide how much the farmers get paid.

Gulen Schools Watched

I've occasionally raised the Gulen Movement as an example of an Islamic activist group that hasn't had its due impact in the scholarly literature because it does not operate in the Arab world, nor is Arabic one of its more important languages. Much of its influence comes from its extensive network of schools around the world, especially in Turkic countries. Central Asian governments, however, are starting to look at them with suspicion:

"In Turkmenistan, education authorities have ordered Turkish lyceums to scrap the history of religion from curriculums.

"In the only Persian-speaking country in the region, Tajikstan, the government, as well as academics, are wary of the possible spread of pan-Turkic ideas. They fear that these schools promote Turkish influence and the Turkish language in their country.

"However, it is Uzbekistan that has taken the toughest stance toward Turkish schools. In 1999, Tashkent closed all Turkish lyceums after its relationship with Ankara turned sour.

"This year, the authoritarian Uzbek government headed by President Islam Karimov took things a step further by arresting at least eight journalists who were graduates of Turkish schools. The journalists were found guilty of setting up an illegal religious group and of involvement in an extremist organization...

"Uzbek officials have expressed suspicions that Turkish-school graduates in government offices and other key institutions use their positions to weaken the secular government. They charge that graduates of Turkish schools promote an aggressive form of Islam and even a role for Islam in political life."

The charges in the last quoted paragraph are ridiculous. These governments are worried about religious organizations they can't control, and will toss out the standard charges to justify their crackdown.

UPDATE: IWPR is also reporting on this.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Uzbekistan Route

It looks like the U.S. and Uzbekistan are getting along better these days:

"On April 3, after protracted negotiations, the U.S. and Uzbekistan finally signed a crucial agreement on the transit of non-military cargo to Afghanistan. This allows the U.S. to ship supplies including food, building and medical materials through Uzbek territory by rail, road and air. Agreed in the context of President Obama's the new strategy for Afghanistan, and ongoing efforts to secure additional support for the mission from amongst European NATO allies and a more 'international' approach towards the issue of Afghanistan, while Washington responded to the announced closure of the U.S. base at Manas. Tashkent, evaluating these developments, has now moved center stage in Central Asia's efforts to contribute to the stabilization of Afghanistan, completing its rapprochement with Washington (RIA Novosti, April 3)."

The right between Washington and Tashkent was not, incidentally, the result of Bush-era unilateralism so much as the general Western criticism of the 2005 Andijon Massacre.

Karakalpakstan

RFE-RL profiles a seemingling low-key movement promoting Karakalpakstan's independence from Uzbekistan.

Cotton Boycott

A movement is underway to boycott Uzbek cotton over the country's child labor practices:

"Since the first appeals were voiced in November 2007, several European clothing chains decided to stop buying Uzbek cotton or clothes made from it. Finland's Marimekko and Estonia's Krenholm were the first. They were joined by Swedish retail giant H&M, Gap, Tesco (the world's third-largest retailer), Britain's largest retailer Marks and Spencer, as well as Debenhams, another British clothing chain.

"The move was significant as it could shake Uzbek cotton's position in Europe -- where one out of every four garments is made of Uzbek cotton.

"Vasila Inoyatova heads the Uzbek human rights group Ezgulik, which has conducted research and several surveys on the use of illegal child labor and campaigned against the practice.

"'Of course, Uzbek officials should not be indifferent to this [boycott]. And they are not. [But] I don't believe a boycott from one or two companies will have a great impact on the Uzbek cotton industry and force Uzbek authorities to change their practice,' Inoyatova told RFE/RL at the roundtable. 'But if there are many more such companies, the problem is going to catch global attention.'"

Radioactive Dust

This news from Central Asia is rather troubling:

"On January 9, Kyrgyz officials announced that they had taken possession of a small load of radioactive substance discovered aboard a train bound for Iran. The material has been placed in a special area in Kyrgyzstan, but questions are being raised about the nature and quantity of the substance, who was behind its transport, and how the train carrying it crossed three border checkpoints before being detected...

"Kubanych Noruzbaev, an official from the Kyrgyz Ecology and Environmental Protection Ministry, said on January 10 that the material was Cesium-137, a product of nuclear reactors and weapons testing that is often used in medical devices and gauges. But it could also be used in a crude radioactive explosive device -- a 'dirty bomb' -- and underscores the fact that despite some progress since 1991, parts of the former Soviet Union are still littered with sites where lethal radioactive materials remain largely unsecured...

"The Kyrgyz news agency 24.kg reported on January 9 that the levels of radiation being emitted from the train car were so high that Emergency Situations Ministry asked for volunteers to go and unload the cargo. Four people wearing special protective clothing volunteered to venture into the wagon where they discovered the source of the radiation: dust and waste material on the floor, which they swept up and deposited in a bucket. The bucket was then sealed in concrete and stored in a special facility...

"Kubat Osmonbetov, a geologist, told RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service that Cesium-137 and Cesium-140 are definitely lethal in large doses. Osmonbetov also noted that there is a uranium-processing plant in northern Tajikistan, raising the possibility that the Tajik train in question may have been used in the past to transport radioactive material and that remains of that material had somehow been left in the wagon."

The article addresses the fact this train was bound for Iran, but I really see no plausible connection with the Iran's nuclear program. An additional possibility is that terrorists could be involved in some sort of trafficking hoping to make a dirty bomb. Occham's Razor, however, suggests the train previously carried some radioactive cargo in the past, either from the Tajik nuclear plant or for something related to those medical devices. The troubling aspect is that Central Asian states apparently don't have appropriate safety or security protocols in place. This train made it through three previous checkpoints! We can only hope Kyrgyz crime lords didn't just bribe security officials to look the other way.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Karimov Enters the Ring

Everyone assumed that Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov would still be in charge a year from now despite formally being term-limited out of office. The only question is how he would go about holding on. Now we know:

" On November 6 Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov announced his decision to enter the upcoming presidential elections on December 23. Karimov’s choice to seek another term provides a short-term solution to the fears of potentially ruthless competition for state power among local politicians and business elites. Almost certainly Karimov will be returned to office for another seven years, and, at age 69, his health may enable him to hold on to power for even longer...

"A number of regional media outlets have harshly criticized Karimov’s 'agreement to remain president for yet another seven years.' However, some local and international experts agree that changing leadership in Uzbekistan this year could lead to a prolonged, severe struggle among current political elites and the secular and religious opposition. But if Karimov and his government fail to generate a solution in the next few years for a peaceful transfer of power, escalating tensions and even armed clashes are likely."

This "peaceful transfer of power" itself will, I'm sure, not be democratic. Why do people even get excited with these speculations?

Early Harvest

IWPR reports on how government regulations are forcing the premature harvesting of wheat:

"Farmers in Uzbekistan are angry that due to pressure to meet state targets, as well as a shortage of farm machinery, officials are forcing them to gather the wheat crop before it has fully ripened.

"On June 1, the wheat harvesting season began in Uzbekistan with local authorities dispatching combine harvesters to gather in the crop.

"With over 120,000 farms in the country, agriculture plays an important role in the Uzbek economy and contributes about one third of gross domestic product.

"Farmers who lease their land from the state are still subject to Soviet-style controls and production quotas for the staple wheat and the more profitable cotton...

"Local authorities are under intense pressure to meet large crop quotas, and if they fail, then they can be reprimanded by central government and governors can even lose their jobs.

"There is a shortage of both combine harvesters and the fuel to run them, so the regional authorities work to tight schedules, deciding when the crops should harvested according to which areas have the most ripened wheat at any given time...

"Agricultural scientists say the tight schedule, combined with pressure on local authorities to be the first to meet government targets for grain production, means crops are regularly harvested before they have fully ripened.

"The nature of irrigation systems in this largely arid country means that some patches of crops will get more water than others and will therefore ripen earlier."