Tengri Returns

Kyrgyzstan is seeing a revival in worship of Tengri, celestial deity of the ancient Turks:

Claiming as many as 50,000 followers in Kyrgyzstan today, believers are fighting for state recognition. There is also a growing, albeit small, Tengrist movement in neighbouring Kazakhstan.

Kyrgyz authorities refuse to identify the Tengrist belief system as a religion. Though officials do not say so themselves, adherents believe that authorities worry, as the influence of Islam grows, recognition of another national religion could stoke tension and divide Kyrgyzstan’s predominantly Muslim population...

Tengrists ... pray to their ancestors, to the spirits of nature, and to Tengri, the eternal blue sky, to cleanse and empower them.

Azerbaijan in the 'Stans

Robert Cutler takes a look at the geopolitical context of Azerbaijan's new investments in Tajikistan and Kyrgyztsan:

"An agreement was signed between the companies Azeraluminum and Tajik Aluminum Co (TALCO) during a state visit to Baku by Tajikistan's President Emomalii Rahmon last week for Azeraluminum to construct an oil refinery in his country...

"Earlier this year, SOCAR agreed to construct a US$250 million oil refinery in Kyrgyzstan with a capacity of 2 million tonnes per year, equivalent to about 40,000 barrels per day. This would reduce and possibly even eliminate Kyrgyzstan's dependence on Russia, on which it relies for imports of about 1.4 million tonnes per year, representing three-quarters of its oil and oil products consumption...

"Having thus reached already westwards, now Azerbaijan and SOCAR are extending their activities and influence eastwards beyond the Caspian Sea basin proper, to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in southern and southeastern Central Asia. The projects themselves are quantitatively minor, as such things go, but the countries involved are also relatively small; and since they are near the collision points not only of geological tectonic plates (producing the Himalaya mountains) but also geopolitical tectonic plates, the moves by Azerbaijan have a much larger potential geo-economic significance.

"That is especially so because, combined with initiatives from China, the given countries may be in the process of extricating themselves from a Russian sphere of influence inherited from the Soviet, indeed pre-Soviet, era. Over the past decade and half, China has become an extremely important player in the economy of Kyrgyzstan, through which it also penetrates the market for (re-exported) consumer goods in Uzbekistan."

Ahmadiyya Suspended

Kyrgyzstan has refused to renew the Ahmadi Muslims' recognition, which will prevent them from legally operating in the country:

"He said the commission's decision violates the rights of the some 1,000 members of the Kyrgyz branch of the Ahmadiyya community, an Islamic revivalist movement founded in India in the late 1800s by Mirza Ghulam Ahmad. Some of the Ahmadiyya community's beliefs are considered controversial with mainstream Muslims.

"Yusub Baltabaev, an official with the State Commission on Religious Affairs, told RFE/RL that the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Kyrgyzstan (SAMK) proposed that the activities of Ahmadiyya in Kyrgyzstan be suspended because of its alleged 'threat to religious security' in the country."

I'm surprised that a group of Muslim religious leaders has that much influence in a post-Soviet Central Asian state, but then Kyrgyzstan is far from my forte. The Ahmadiyya differ from mainstream Islam primarily in not regarding Muhammad as a final prophet, and seeing their founder Mirza Ghulam Ahmad as a new messenger from God for a new age and society. I also dimly recall something about it's being an important movement in African-American Islam a century ago, but I don't have the resources to check on that right now.

Tales of Manas

Dina Tokbaeva reports on Kyrgyzstan's public commemorations of epic hero Manas:

"Unveiled on August 31 this year to mark the 20th anniversary of Kyrgyzstan independence, the nine metres-long bronze figure on horseback is called 'Manas the Magnanimous'.

"Manas, the central figure in a long epic poem of the same name, is regarded as a symbol of unity for bringing the various Kyrgyz tribes together in times of danger...

"The bronze horseman replaces a statue called 'Erkindik' – Liberty – a winged female figure on top of a globe, holding aloft a 'tunduk', the circular frame that forms the top of a traditional Kyrgyz yurt.

"Originally built in 1999 to celebrate independence from the Soviet Union, the winged figure moved into the square only five years ago to replace Vladimir Lenin, who had survived there until 2003...

"The idea of demolishing the statue came from a group of historians and politicians who based their argument around a legend that a woman carrying a 'tunduk' is an ill omen. They said the turbulent events of recent years – mass unrest that caused regime change in 2005 and 2010, and the ethnic violence last summer that left more than 400 dead – showed the statue must come down.

"As an alternative, the idea of a Manas statue came up. The authorities lent their weight to the campaign and appealed for public donations.

"It is in fact only the latest in a long list of monuments and places named after Manas – the latter including the country’s main airport. Schools in Kyrgyzstan are to start teaching the Manas epic as a separate subject."

Tokbaeva is cynical about the statue change, noting that it won't help solve Kyrgyzztan's problems. My interest is in the commemoration of the past in new nations, and the use of history, literature, and folklore to forge a new identity. You can read basics about the Epic of Manas here, and in more depth here.

Tulip Revolution Redux

I don't follow Kyrgyz politics nearly as closely as I did several years ago, but this week's developments need acknowledging:

"April 7 became yet another day of momentous change in Kyrgyzstan. More than 70 people died during clashes with police, and roughly 1,000 were injured in anti-government protests across the country (www.diesel.elcat.kg, April 8). The scope of causalities is unprecedented in Kyrgyzstan. Spontaneous protests erupted across the country demanding the resignation of President, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who has become infamous for his corruption and authoritarianism. Opposition leaders, in turn, declared that they have formed a provisional government after seizing the government headquarters.

Bakiyev sought refuge in the southern town of Osh, after anti-government crowds flooded onto the streets in Bishkek. Through state-controlled mass media, the politician tried to spread the message that he was in full control of the government (www.akipress.kg, www.24.kg, April 7)...

"It is crucial to examine the balance of military power between the opposition and Bakiyev supporters in order to assess the possibility of repeated violent clashes and a possible eruption of civil war in the country. Bakiyev has shown that he is not intending to leave his post without trying to suppress the opposition and the crowds by force. The country’s armed forces were structured in a way to protect the regime from possible challenges."

Kyrgyz Censorship

President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has increased censorship throughout Kyrgyzstan:

"In the past few weeks the Kyrgyz government has been blocking transmission of Radio Free Europe (Azattyk) and BBC radio, both of which have a broadcast range covering the entire country. The ban comes at a time of a worsening energy crisis, rampant inflation, mobilization by opposition movements, and general public disaffection with President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s government. Today, all broadcasts throughout the country must go through the government-controlled Kyrgyz TV and Radio Corporation (KTR).

"A Kyrgyz NGO, the Coalition for Democracy and a Civil Society, has expressed its concern over the government’s censorship, arguing that this is an attempt to cut the Kyrgyz public off from independent media (www.akipress.kg, December 9). According to the NGO, after censoring local media, the government moved to shut off access to international news outlets, which has a great impact on mostly rural inhabitants."

Voices of Power

President Kurmanbek Bakiyev continues to slowly stifle potential opposition voices in Kyrgystan:

"The proportional method was applied in the December election, in which the pro-presidential Ak Jol party won an outright majority, despite being set up only two months beforehand.

"The new regulations contain a controversial stipulation that the number of members of parliament allowed to speak in any legislative debate is predetermined by the amount of seats each party holds.

"The parliamentary leader of each of the three parties represented will get to address the chamber on new pieces of legislation, and then Ak Jol will be able to field a further nine speakers, as it holds 71 seats. However, the Social Democrats, who have 11 seats, will only be able to put forward three speakers, and the Communists just two, on behalf of their eight seats.

"In previous incarnations of the Kyrgyz parliament, all members had the right to make their views felt when bills were under discussion."

The New Parliament

I really didn't pay much attention to last month's parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan, which were won decisively by the party of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev. Predictably, there are nor fears that the body will simply become a rubber stamp to a strong executive. I'm sure it will. Next question?

Radioactive Dust

This news from Central Asia is rather troubling:

"On January 9, Kyrgyz officials announced that they had taken possession of a small load of radioactive substance discovered aboard a train bound for Iran. The material has been placed in a special area in Kyrgyzstan, but questions are being raised about the nature and quantity of the substance, who was behind its transport, and how the train carrying it crossed three border checkpoints before being detected...

"Kubanych Noruzbaev, an official from the Kyrgyz Ecology and Environmental Protection Ministry, said on January 10 that the material was Cesium-137, a product of nuclear reactors and weapons testing that is often used in medical devices and gauges. But it could also be used in a crude radioactive explosive device -- a 'dirty bomb' -- and underscores the fact that despite some progress since 1991, parts of the former Soviet Union are still littered with sites where lethal radioactive materials remain largely unsecured...

"The Kyrgyz news agency 24.kg reported on January 9 that the levels of radiation being emitted from the train car were so high that Emergency Situations Ministry asked for volunteers to go and unload the cargo. Four people wearing special protective clothing volunteered to venture into the wagon where they discovered the source of the radiation: dust and waste material on the floor, which they swept up and deposited in a bucket. The bucket was then sealed in concrete and stored in a special facility...

"Kubat Osmonbetov, a geologist, told RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service that Cesium-137 and Cesium-140 are definitely lethal in large doses. Osmonbetov also noted that there is a uranium-processing plant in northern Tajikistan, raising the possibility that the Tajik train in question may have been used in the past to transport radioactive material and that remains of that material had somehow been left in the wagon."

The article addresses the fact this train was bound for Iran, but I really see no plausible connection with the Iran's nuclear program. An additional possibility is that terrorists could be involved in some sort of trafficking hoping to make a dirty bomb. Occham's Razor, however, suggests the train previously carried some radioactive cargo in the past, either from the Tajik nuclear plant or for something related to those medical devices. The troubling aspect is that Central Asian states apparently don't have appropriate safety or security protocols in place. This train made it through three previous checkpoints! We can only hope Kyrgyz crime lords didn't just bribe security officials to look the other way.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Hizb ut-Tahrir in Kyrgyzstan

IWPR reports that Hizb ut-Tahrir is quietly gaining support in southern Kyrgyzstan. Here's an example of what's been happening:

"The group’s role in this event (Eid al-Fitr celebrations in a town called Nookat), and the response of local government, provide an object lesson in how the authorities struggle to find an adequate response – they do not want to allow Hizb-ut-Tahrir free rein, but using tough tactics to stop it can prove counterproductive...

"He (government official) said the trouble began on October 12, when about 300 party supporters turned up on the main square in Nookat along with ordinary Muslims keen to mark the end of the fasting period with a traditional feast.

"'At first, we welcomed the initiative to hold a big celebration of the Muslim feast,' said Aliev. 'But Hizb-ut-Tahrir activists started using this event for their own ends.'

"Before the Eid festival, about 1,000 people signed a petition calling on the government to fund the celebrations, and also to pay for a new state school for girls who want to follow the Muslim dress code.

"Hizb-ut-Tahrir members told IWPR they helped with logistical arrangements for the party.

"'When we announced the holiday, ordinary Muslims responded, with some giving rice and others [cooking] equipment,' said one of the organisers, 66-year old Jibek Asanova from the village of Kara-Oy...

"However, police stepped on and blocked the street celebrations. 'The police wouldn’t let the tightrope perform do their act, and made us cook the pilaf at home and bring it to the square.'

"Aliev confirmed that police stepped in but said they only did what was necessary and acted 'within the bounds of the law'.

"Hizb-ut-Tahrir says the authorities’ actions caused widespread discontent among Nookat residents, and the event transformed into a demonstration involving some 15,000 people...

"Activists say that having lost control, the local officials had to call in a different kind of authority – known Hizb-ut-Tahrir members – to pacify the crowd."

My read on this is that Hizb ut-Tahrir, a group dedicated to the peaceful promotion of often fundamentalist Islam, saw supporting local Eid celebrations as a chance to connect with religious villagers in the south. This is what the state feared. This kind of subtle mixture of religious observance with political goals is common, especially in Islam, but undoubtedly new in the formerly repressive environment of post-Soviet Central Asia, where governments are used to controlling a formal religious establishment and not having to deal with these sorts of popular movements.

Kyrgyz Constitution

IWPR goes over the new constituion for Kyrgyzstan proposed by President Kurmanbek Bakiev, which will probably soon be the law of the land. Unsurprisingly, the document creates a very strong presidency, and in some ways reminds me of the system by which Husni Mubarak has maintained power in Egypt. A key is the centralization of opposition forces into national political parties, achieved in this instance by institution a party list system similar to that in Iraq and Israel. This will make it much easier for Bakiev to co-opt parties individually, as well as neutralizing deputies by freezing the parties to which they belong. I suspect one target of such manipulation will be ensuring no non-Presidential party is able to gain a majority of the seats. That, in turn, will leave it up to the President to nominate the prime minister and government.

Where Kulov Comes From

Erica Marat provides more on Feliks Kulov's sudden ideas about a confederation between Russia and Kyrgyzstan:

"Although many in Kyrgyzstan find Kulov’s idea absurd, most Kyrgyz citizens agree that today Russia is the country’s key strategic partner. Support for greater integration with Russia is noticeable across all generations and occupations. “The mentality is the same,” says a 35-year old Kyrgyz entrepreneur whose business is connected to China. Some believe that while the U.S. presence in Kyrgyzstan is temporary, links with Russia are historical and therefore more stable. 'Russia is the only force to prevent the total absorption of Kyrgyzstan by China in the future,' commented a university professor from Bishkek...

"Kulov chose such a pro-Russian line primarily to increase his own political standing. Along among the Central Asian states, Kyrgyz political officials seek power by subordinating their country to Russia rather than promoting national sovereignty. For example, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, both with strong Russian political and economic influence, maintain a fundamentally different approach toward Russia. While acknowledging the importance of links with Russia, the governments of both states emphasize their country’s ethnic identity and sovereignty.

"Kulov appeals to patriotic feelings to promote his idea. He suggests that Kyrgyzstan would solve its most pressing problems by joining Russia, including the north-south divide and economic underdevelopment. Kulov also brings in historical arguments of Kyrgyz-Russian 150-years of diplomatic relations. Other politicians used similar techniques to campaign against the World Bank’s Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative and to provoke public anger against the shooting of a Kyrgyz citizen by a U.S. airman in December 2006."

Back to Russia

I didn't see this coming:

"Former Prime Minister Feliks Kulov, the leader of For a Worthy Future, told reporters, 'A union with Russia will preserve the unity of Kyrgyzstan and its people, who have been split by the government's silly steps into the north and the south.' Kulov said that if parliament does not take up the plan for a confederation with Russia, activists will work for a referendum to dissolve the legislature, news agency 24.kg reported. 'We give the country's leadership until autumn. By that time, the collection of signatures in support of a confederation with Russia will be completed, and we will wait for the authorities' reaction,' Kulov said. 'And following the collection of 300,000 signatures, we will put three questions to a referendum, specifically the creation of a union with Russia; an early presidential election; and the parliament's dissolution and a new parliamentary election.'"

Protests Broken

The anti-Bakiyev protests in Kyrgyzstan have come to an end, apparently through the use of government-hired thugs who provoked violence which was then blamed on the opposition.

Akiyev and Bakiyev

According to Erica Marat, Kurmanbek Bakiyev's supporters in Parliament are all followers of ousted President Askar Akiyev:

"More than one-third of the parliament is supporting the president and prefers to postpone any constitutional reform. They refuse to consider restructuring as long as the opposition demonstrations last. The increasing divides between pro-presidential and opposition MPs led to a fistfight among some legislators on April 16. Most pro-presidential MPs are opportunists who have demonstrated that they are concerned more with their mandates than with political principles. In the contentious February-March 2005 parliamentary elections, they won their seats thanks to their membership in the Alga Kyrgyzstan political party led by Bermet Akayeva, daughter of former president Askar Akayev. In effect, these parliamentarians are the core political force that still openly supports Bakiyev. According to Bely parohod, some of the pro-presidential MPs have already lost the support of their constituents."

In other words, the people who followed the guy who got turned out in the Tulip Revolution are the main support for the current regime. I do wonder if there's a bit more to it, as I thought most of the Parliament was elected in March 2005, and that Akiyev's block got a majority at that time, though I could be wrong. In either case, this is clearly a situation in which democratic reform is (hopefully) produced through self-interested manipulations of the system by competing factions rather than a broad idealism among the country's most influential figures.

Kulov's Brigades

In Kyrgyzstan, an opposition front founded by former Prime Minister Feliks Kulov has brought thousands of protestors out to demand the resignation of President Kurmanbek Bakiev:

"A crowd estimated to number more than 10,000 people is rallying on Bishkek's central Alatoo Square to demand the resignation of Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev.

"Other protesters are marching toward the square from various parts of the city. Organizers of the protest say Bakiev has not fulfilled promises he made when campaigning for the presidency two years ago and that he appears unwilling or unable to make good on his pledges.

"The opposition United Front For A Worthy Future For Kyrgyzstan and the For Reforms movement says 50,000 people will take to the streets of the Kyrgyz capital.

"Protesters started their march from Jengish (Victory) Square toward Alatoo (Freedom) Square chanting as they walked, 'Bakiev Go! Bakiev Must Go!'"

This follows Bakiev's successful thwarting of last fall's constitutional reform and the continued centralization of power in his own hands. A cynic, of course, might suggest that Kulov's love for democratic reforms manifests itself mainly when he is out of power. You can follow these developments through a correspondent on the ground in Bishkek over at Registan.