Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Senate Predictions

I don't follow individual House races all that closely, as there are just too many of them, so anything I say about that chamber would just be derived from experts. I have, however, been keeping close track of the Senate, and with all the normal caveats about predictions, see the Democrats getting five seats. I'm picking them to knock off the GOP incumbents in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and Missouri, while retaining New Jersey and Maryland. Republicans will hold their seats in Arizona and Tennessee, and the former race will be closer than the latter. That leaves Rhode Island and Montana, which I just can't make up my mind about. I'm calling the parties to split them, with Rhode Island the more likely candidate for a Democratic pick-up.

As an added bit of intrigue, however, if the Democrats pick up five seats but lose Rhode Island, Lincoln Chafee will hold the balance of power between the parties. There's also the Lieberman factor; however, that's what I'm calling as most likely to be an upset. I won't predict a Lamont win outright, but it's definitely close than the polls indicate, and I'm saying it's too close to call.

UPDATE: Three minutes before the first polls close, I'm calling the Democrats to take 40 House seats.


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