Problems in Kirkuk

Back in June, I noted that deals reached in Kirkuk were good for about a year only, with the implication that complications lay in the future for this city where Saddam Hussein booted out Kurds and brought in Arab families as part of an "Arabization" program. Now before there is an agreement on the social situation, we have to deal with the issue of the oil-rich area's political future as Kurds clamor for greater autonomy ahead of the planned June 30 handover. Unfortunately, this makes recent outbreaks of violence somewhat predictable. The Iraqi nationalism which means Arab Sunnis and Shi'ites will likely hold together in a single state could mean trouble on the question of the Kurds, who as non-Arabs are left out of the Iraqi discourse as traditionally conceived. Arabs and Turkmen living in the north oppose any Kurdish autonomy, as do neighboring Syria and Turkey who have large Kurdish minorities of their own. Kirkuk is a sub-issue of this, and no decision has been made on whether it will be included in any established Kurdish region. There are no easy answers here, and unfortunately the signs are that the Bush administration will base its decisions on what looks best for the fall elections rather than long-term stability.