Swine Flu in Central New York

Swine flu has arrived in the Syracuse area:

"The Fabius-Pompey Central School District is closing Thursday and Friday as a precaution after a female high school student who recently traveled to Mexico tested positive for swine flu.

"The student lives in Cortland County and is one of three possible human swine flu cases reported earlier this week by the Cortland Health Department...

"The student did not need to be hospitalized and is recovering, said Dr. Cynthia Morrow, Onondaga County health commissioner. No other Fabius-Pompey students have gotten sick.

"Morrow urged people not to panic. The decision to close the school reflects CDC guidelines. 'We are being extra cautious,' Morrow said."

First off, it must be very strange to have your flu make the local, if not national, news.

Second, I suspect the precautions being taken will succeed in limiting the outbreak. We simply know more about epidemiology than we did decades ago. As some have pointed out, the biggest problem is our inadequate health care policies, which leave many workers without paid sick days and people without health insurance who may try to tough the illness out on their own.

Gulen and Kurdish Hizbullah

I won't pretend to understand all the ramifications of this piece on new developments in the Gulen Movement's relations with the government and Kurdish Hizbullah, and those interested should just click through and read it. Here's one point:

"KH's concerns over the Gulen movement are not a new phenomenon. Since the launch of its new strategy in 2005 to reach out to the Kurdish region, KH has considered the Gulen movement to be a threat to its existence. As the dominant Kurdish Islamist organization, the KH wants to maintain its position. However, the Gulen movement, which is a predominantly Turkish organization, has extended its influence into the Kurdish region by opening new reading rooms, private schools and business organizations. It has consequently become a serious actor in shaping Kurdish political identity within the region, which is precisely what the KH wants to prevent. In its recent press release, the KH leadership expressed its dissatisfaction over the Gulen movements' recent activities in the Kurdish region (www.yesrip.com, April 22)."

Bahrain Worker Transportation

Bahrain deserves praise for sticking to its guns on a workers' rights issue:

"Bahrain's traffic authorities on Tuesday pledged not to compromise on the ban to carry labourers in open trucks, saying that the grace period would not be extended.

"'The ban will be fully implemented starting May 1 as agreed. The companies concerned with the matter have been given ample time to adjust their situation and there will be no reprieve,' Khalid Al Dossari, from the Traffic Directorate, said. 'The ban was decided after exhaustive studies indicated a rise in the number of fatal and dangerous accidents in the last three years.'

"Several workers have been hurled to their deaths from the backs of open vehicles...

"Several contractors complained that the ban would mean the purchase of new vehicles would make heavy financial demands on their budgets, and lobbied for its postponement. Some contractors also argued that the addition of new vehicles would mean heavy traffic congestions and woes.

"However, the authorities are now determined not to extend the grace period and want all companies and contractors to comply with the ban."

Gulen Schools Watched

I've occasionally raised the Gulen Movement as an example of an Islamic activist group that hasn't had its due impact in the scholarly literature because it does not operate in the Arab world, nor is Arabic one of its more important languages. Much of its influence comes from its extensive network of schools around the world, especially in Turkic countries. Central Asian governments, however, are starting to look at them with suspicion:

"In Turkmenistan, education authorities have ordered Turkish lyceums to scrap the history of religion from curriculums.

"In the only Persian-speaking country in the region, Tajikstan, the government, as well as academics, are wary of the possible spread of pan-Turkic ideas. They fear that these schools promote Turkish influence and the Turkish language in their country.

"However, it is Uzbekistan that has taken the toughest stance toward Turkish schools. In 1999, Tashkent closed all Turkish lyceums after its relationship with Ankara turned sour.

"This year, the authoritarian Uzbek government headed by President Islam Karimov took things a step further by arresting at least eight journalists who were graduates of Turkish schools. The journalists were found guilty of setting up an illegal religious group and of involvement in an extremist organization...

"Uzbek officials have expressed suspicions that Turkish-school graduates in government offices and other key institutions use their positions to weaken the secular government. They charge that graduates of Turkish schools promote an aggressive form of Islam and even a role for Islam in political life."

The charges in the last quoted paragraph are ridiculous. These governments are worried about religious organizations they can't control, and will toss out the standard charges to justify their crackdown.

UPDATE: IWPR is also reporting on this.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Rezai in the Ring

A new candidate has entered Iran's presidential election:

"A hard-line politician and former head of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohsen Rezai, announced Wednesday that he would enter the presidential race, indicating additional splintering among the country’s conservatives.

"Mr. Rezai, who oversaw the Revolutionary Guards from 1981 to 1997, had been seeking to unite conservative politicians behind another candidate to compete against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But he decided instead to become a candidate himself in the presidential election, to be held June 12, Iranian news media reported.

"Mr. Rezai, who has accused Mr. Ahmadinejad of mismanaging the economy, will run as an independent candidate, the ISNA news agency reported.

"His candidacy underscores the political fragmenting of a conservative faction known as the Principlists, which threw its support behind Mr. Ahmadinejad when he ran for president in 2004. Some leading figures who supported Mr. Ahmadinejad then have not publicly backed him this time."

I've mentioned before that a simple conservative/reformist split is an inadequate lens for understanding Iranian politics. The principlists, however, do form a recognizable faction the potential division of which is noteworthy.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Turkey-Armenia Framework

Shortly after Turkey tried to assuage Azerbaijan's concerns that it's concerns were being left out of the Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, the latter two states announced agreement on a framework for normalizing relations. They haven't, however, said what it contains, perhaps indicating a desire to try and appease nationalists on both sides who won't know what to be upset about. Richard Giragosian of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies had this to say:

"Giragosian says that if Turkey and Armenia normalize relations, the deal would come in several steps.

"There would be an agreement to open the border, followed by an agreement to move toward diplomatic relations, with the Turkish ambassador in Georgia most likely assuming the portfolio of representing Turkey in Armenia.

"He says there also would be an agreement to form a large, all-encompassing governmental commission to resolve several issues, most importantly including the 'Armenian genocide' issue.

"He says there are also signs that Turkey would unveil a new document or road map on Nagorno-Karabakh committing all sides to work within the OSCE Minsk Group mediation process and committing all sides to working hard to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

"It is exactly the question of what form this commitment over Nagorno-Karabakh would take that is now becoming the potential deal-spoiler for the rapprochement process. This week’s road map may be as much a measure of the level of worry over that possibility as it is a progress report that all is going well on the road to a deal."

As he indicates, we're still back at Karabakh. However, active Turkish involvement in the negotiating process could help introduce new elements which break the logjam, and the AKP could tout more useful regional diplomacy.

Yemeni Jews

Increasing tensions in the Arab-Israeli conflict are bringing some Yemenis to scapegoat and attack that country's Jewish community:

"Yemen is in danger of losing what's left of its Jewish community, which has called the country home for more than 2,500 years and provided its kings for a century.

"Growing intimidation and violence are pushing the 300 Jews left in the Arabian Peninsula country to flee to Israel or the US. Four months ago, a gunman shot dead Jewish studies teacher Moshe Yaish Nahari, a father of nine, in the town of Raida, north of the capital of Sana'a...

"'Because of the deteriorating security situation, the Yemeni Jewish community as opposed to others in the Arab world is in need of making very serious decisions regarding their future,' said Yehudit Barsky, a Middle East expert at the American Jewish Committee, a New York-based advocate for Jewish rights. 'From a historical perspective, it's a sad situation. They have lived there for so long.'

"Yemeni Jews say they fear more violence after a Raida court in February ordered Nahari's convicted killer to pay blood money of 5.5 million riyals (Dh100,975), sparing him the death sentence."

I wish I knew more about the socio-political landscape in rural Yemen where these events are taking place. Traditionally, Jews were considered "weak," and attacking them was dishonorable. What is the interplay of the current situation with tribal morals and nationalist ideas?

Back to Karabakh

After an uproar from Azerbaijan and Turkish nationalists, Turkey's government has promised not to normalize relations with Armenia in a way that damaged Azerbaijan's negotiating position regarding Karabakh:

"Concerned that it might lose its leverage on Armenia as a result of any thaw in Ankara-Yerevan relations, Baku raised objections. Moreover, the prospects that Turkey might "betray" Azerbaijan generated domestic uproar against the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, with opposition parties and civil society organizations organizing activities to demonstrate support with their Azeri brethren (EDM, April 9). As a result, Ankara took steps to reassure Baku that any Turkish-Armenian normalization would not come at the expense of Azerbaijan (EDM, April 10). After fast-tracking the negotiations with Armenia over the past year, the process has now stalled...

"Babacan told reporters on his way to Yerevan, that Turkey was seeking a comprehensive solution to regional problems. He said that efforts to normalize relations must connect the process between Turkey and Armenia with Yerevan's ties with Baku. "We do not say, let's first solve one problem and solve the other later," Babacan added (Today's Zaman, April 17).

"Babacan's remarks served to reiterate Turkey's position that the re-opening of the border with Armenia must be linked to the resolution of Armenian-Azerbaijani territorial issues, which he also repeated during his meetings in Yerevan."

Amending Bahrain's Constitution

This month's Arab Reform Bulletin has an overview of attempts to amend the Bahraini consitution to give Parliament more power. The key point, however, seems buried at the bottom:

"Thus far negotiations between the blocs of the lower house are moving slowly. The blocs will meet again in April but are unlikely to reach a workable agreement despite their statements to the contrary. And the fact remains that even if they do agree on a proposed set of amendments, they would need to gain the support of 27 of the appointed Shura members, nearly an impossible task.

"Al-Wefaq’s MPs will get one thing, however, out of all these tedious and probably fruitless negotiations. They will be able to go back to their constituents and prove that they tried hard to change parts of the constitution, as promised during their election campaigns. It remains to be seen how well that will work to shore up public support for al-Wefaq in view of constant campaigns from other opposition movements (such as Haqq) that eschew participation in a system they view as fundamentally unfair."

In other words, different parliamentary factions are trying to reach an agreement on some amendments, and if they do, it won't matter anyway since they have to get 27 of the 40 members of a different chamber hand-picked by the regime to go along with them. Al-Wefaq is going to claim that they tried hard, and hope that persuades people to stay with them rather than support an opposition group that boycotts the system. Isn't this course of events more likely to make the system rejectionists' case for them?

Kuwaiti Red Lines

Kuwait's royal family reinforces that Kuwaiti democracy has limits:

"Kuwaiti state security police on Sunday arrested a candidate standing in next month’s parliamentary election after he publicly criticised the ruling family, an AFP photographer said.

"A group of police took municipal council member Khalifa al-Khorafi for questioning from his home in a suburb of Kuwait City in the third such arrest reported ahead of the May election, the photographer said.

"Khorafi, a member of one of Kuwait’s wealthiest families, and a relative of former speaker Jassem al-Khorafi, had told a private television station last week that the ruling Sabah family was incapable of running the Gulf state...

"Police on Thursday arrested former MP Daifallah Buramia for allegedly saying that Defence Minister Sheikh Jaber al-Mubarak al-Sabah, a senior member of the ruling family, was ‘not fit’ to become prime minister.

"He faces charges of degrading the powers of the emir and violating the press and publications law."

Child Marriage in Arabia

After public outcry over the marriage of an 8-year-old to a 50-year-old, Saudi Arabia's Minister of Justice has vowed action:

"The justice ministry aims to put an end to arbitrariness by parents and guardians in marrying off minor girls', Justice Minister Mohammad Al Eisa told Al Watan newspaper, partially owned by members of the royal family...

"The minister's comments suggested the practice of marrying off young girls would not be abolished. The regulations will seek to 'preserve the rights, fending off blights to end the negative aspects of underage girls' marriage', he said.

"A court in the Saudi town of Onaiza upheld for the second time last week the marriage of the Saudi girl to a man who is about 50 years her senior, on condition he does not have sex with her until she reaches puberty."

If it continues to allow this practice, then what on earth is a reform supposed to consist of? Simply banning pedophile acts?

See also these statistics out of Yemen:

"Some 24.6 per cent of females get married when they are 10-14 years old, while 56 per cent of them get married when they are 15-19 years old, the report said...

"Some 48 per cent of females under 15 years old get married early, and about 45 per cent of males and females get married when they are about 10 years, the report said."

There is significant support in Yemen for raising the minimum marriage age to 17.

LeVine on Tel Aviv

Mark LeVine, the premier historian of Tel Aviv, reflects on 100 years of the city's history.

Student Quality

Dr. Crazy defends students at regional comprehensive universities such as Shippensburg:

"I'm so proud of them all. They are all so freaking awesome. And the fact of the matter is, these students are as awesome as any student at an elite slac or at a fancy R1. They just don't have the histories that would have gotten them there. And no, I don't believe that choosing a CC for the first two years and then transferring to a fancy place would have insured some sort of brighter future for them. So when people talk about how institutions like mine are "doomed," well, I say to those people, you don't know what an institution like mine can do for students who would do just as well at fancier establishments, but who didn't have the guidance, support, or money to get there. My students rock, y'all. Maybe not all of them, but having taught at an R1 as a grad student, I can say with all confidence that not all of them rocked either."

Do students at R1 universities really have a reputation as rocking? Even if they do, I doubt the overall quality of education you get sitting in lecture halls can really compare with that in any smaller environment.

Hanger Segregation

Silly Bahraini Girl tells us that in Saudi Arabia, men and women even have to use separate hangers.

Bleeding Blue

After an amazing run, the St. Louis Blues are back in the playoffs:

"Chris Mason made 28 saves for his sixth shutout of the season, helping the St. Louis Blues take the sixth playoff spot in the Western Conference with a 1-0 win over the Colorado Avalanche on Sunday in the regular-season finale.

"The Blues, in the playoffs for the first time in five years, will face Vancouver in the opening round.

"St. Louis enters the postseason on quite a roll, going 9-1-1 down the stretch...

"St. Louis made up a lot of ground just to climb into the playoffs. The team was at the bottom of the conference in mid-February, then finished an NHL-best 25-9-7 in the second half to earn a spot."

I hate to say it, but when you're on that kind of roll, anything can happen.

Damascus Spring Redux?

Joshua Landis says there's a new tone in Damascus:

"The winds of change coming out of Washington have rekindled talk of liberalization and reform in Damascus. The Obama administration’s abandonment of a regime change approach to Syria has emboldened officials in Damascus to speak out about economic vulnerabilities—and the impact of U.S. sanctions—with refreshing candor. Long delayed economic reforms, particularly the launching of Damascus’s stock exchange, have been pushed through. President Assad has also promised to put political liberalization back on his agenda because he no longer believes Western powers seek to destabilize Syria.

"Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Dardari, who coordinates economic planning in Syria, broke with the government’s party line on the economy in a recent interview with Reuters. Rather than repeating bromides about how Syria’s economy would not be affected by the world downturn, he warned Syrians that they would indeed face tough times. He explained that 'Syria’s foreign trade makes up 70 per cent of GDP and this means that the country’s dependence on external factors is very large.' Mohammed al-Hussein, Syria’s finance minister, took Dardari’s warnings one step further, saying that 2009 would be a 'difficult' year. The country’s banks were secure, but the industrial, transport and tourism sectors would suffer, he predicted...

"President Bashar al-Assad assured Syrians in March that the pace of reform would pick up now that Syria is 'less affected by difficult international circumstances.' What is more, he suggested that reforms would not only be economic, but also political. When asked to elaborate, Assad responded: 'For example by expanding political participation, creating another chamber in addition to the parliament, such as a freely elected senate with a legislative role to give more space to the opposition, by further liberalizing the political media and the Internet to promote dialogue, and finally by enacting a law regulating political parties. But all that will come about gradually, at our own pace.' Most Syrians may not hold their breath for political change, but they are gratified by the new climate of engagement with the United States, hoping that it will have important economic repercussions and perhaps bring some relaxation of the political atmosphere."

What You Call "Settlements"

Stephen Walt, in a post about ways the U.S. could pressure Israel, suggests the following:

"While reaffirming America’s commitment to Israel’s existence as a Jewish-majority state, it could stop referring to settlement construction as 'unhelpful,' a word that makes U.S. diplomats sound timid and mealy-mouthed. Instead, we could start describing the settlements as 'illegal' or as 'violations of international law.' The UN Charter forbids acquisition of territory by force and the Fourth Geneva Convention bars states from transfering their populations (even if voluntarily) to areas under belligerent occupation. This is why earlier U.S. administrations described the settlements as illegal, and why the rest of the world has long regarded them in the same way."

Since in the Arab-Israeli conflict legality is a concept both sides manipulate to get what they want, I doubt it's that helpful or meaningful in this context. I'd actually go a step further and abandon the innocuous term "settlements" altogether. "Colonies," the most common translation of the Arabic term for them, is one possibility, though for diplomacy's sake I might stick with "outposts of expansion." This targets overtly those settlements most controversial within Israel itself, and could raise the issue in the Israeli domestic context while also leaving open the possibility that we mean places like Ariel and Har Homa. More importantly, it calls attention to the real damage Israel is doing to the prospects for a two-state solution, thus shifting the perception of the conflict.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Egypt and Hizbullah

The Arabist has expressed skepticism over Egyptian allegations that Hizbullah wanted to carry out terrorist acts inside Egypt:

"Culled from various sources, a list of what the “Hizbullah cell” was trying to achieve:

- Carry out terrorist attacks on the Shia holiday Ashura
- Rent housing near the Suez Canal to monitor the passage of ships
- Surveillance of tourist resorts in Sinai
- Procurement of explosives to manufacture bombs
- Renting housing in luxury areas to serve as safe houses
- Recruitment of Egyptians to their cause, with the aim of sending them abroad for paramilitary training
- Using businesses to fund and provide cover for their activities
- Spread Shiism in Egypt

"All that seems like a tall order… While I won’t dismiss it entirely as many who have heard Egyptian security cry wolf too many times — after all there is a rich history of Arab states and non-state actors operating in each other’s turf, even if it died down in the post-Cold War world — the idea of Hizbullah suddenly deciding to implant itself in Egypt, where it has no natural constituency, is rather weird."

Today Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah spoke:

"Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on Friday said Egypt was holding a member of the Lebanese Shi'ite militia who was in Egypt 'working to help the resistance of Palestine'.

"Nasrallah said the Hezbollah member had been working 'to move military equipment and members to help the resistance' in Gaza.

"During the live television address, Nasrallah denied accusations that Hezbollah is trying to destabilize Egypt or is planning attacks on Egyptian targets, saying such claims 'are meant to sully the image of Hezbollah among the Egyptian people.'

"Nasrallah portrayed Hezbollah's actions as meant solely to aid the Palestinian people, saying 'if helping our occupied, battered, and hungry Palestinian brothers is a crime, than I confess to this crime.'"

I agree with Nasrallah here. The Egyptian government is helping enforce the siege of Gaza. To say that this is deeply unpopular among Egyptians would be an understatement. Accusing a member of the rejectionist Arab camp of plotting an attack against Egypt is aimed at the domestic audience. I expect it won't catch on.

Israeli Arabs and al-Jazeera

Right now I'm getting ready to teach a class tomorrow on the Arab media, with readings from Hugh Miles's Al-Jazeera, introducing that station's popular shows and public and government reactions, and Charles Hirschkind's The Ethical Soundscape, about the circulation of cassette sermons in the Arab world. In another part of Miles's book, I just ran across this paragraph:

"Its (al-Jazeera's) truthful reports from the West Bank and Gaza have probably made peace and reconciliation between Palestinians and Israelis more elusive too. By graphically showing Palestinian suffering, Al-Jazeera may well have contributed to a hardening of the Arab position against Israel, not least among the Israeli Arab community. The difference in scale between Arab responses to the first and second intifadas, which came before and after the advent of satellite news, is evidence for this."

I don't buy the first part of this argument, as the only Arab country where popular opinion exercises a significant influence over national diplomacy is among the Palestinians, and they don't need al-Jazeera to tell them about the occupation. The role the network may have played in linking Israeli Arabs together with a broader Arab public and its grievances, however, is interesting. Something definitely shifted during the 1990's.

Uzbekistan Route

It looks like the U.S. and Uzbekistan are getting along better these days:

"On April 3, after protracted negotiations, the U.S. and Uzbekistan finally signed a crucial agreement on the transit of non-military cargo to Afghanistan. This allows the U.S. to ship supplies including food, building and medical materials through Uzbek territory by rail, road and air. Agreed in the context of President Obama's the new strategy for Afghanistan, and ongoing efforts to secure additional support for the mission from amongst European NATO allies and a more 'international' approach towards the issue of Afghanistan, while Washington responded to the announced closure of the U.S. base at Manas. Tashkent, evaluating these developments, has now moved center stage in Central Asia's efforts to contribute to the stabilization of Afghanistan, completing its rapprochement with Washington (RIA Novosti, April 3)."

The right between Washington and Tashkent was not, incidentally, the result of Bush-era unilateralism so much as the general Western criticism of the 2005 Andijon Massacre.

Nayef as Security Czar

Some analysts are suggesting that Prince Nayef's recent appointment is because King Abdullah was worried about potential threats from Iran:

"Saudi Arabia's appointment of its top security official as a deputy to the king should address concerns over Iranian influence, after tensions with its Shiite minority escalated to a rare threat of secession, analysts say...

"'This was a careful arrangement among top royals. Prince Sultan's absence left a big void and raised many questions over the efficiency of decision-making system. This appointment solves this big issue,' a senior Saudi official said on condition of anonymity."

I guess the thinking behind this is that bumping up the long-time Interior Minister also bumps up the portfolio with which he deals? A deeper issue here is the apparent Saudi belief that Iran is behind recent restiveness among the country's Shi'ites. Repression under the anti-Shi'ite Wahhabi regime probably has far more to do with it.

Syrian Brides

IWPR reports on rural Syria as a source of brides for the Gulf:

"Abu Jamal, 40, who declined to give his real name, operates an unlicensed business which facilitates marriages between young Syrian women and much older men who travel from the Gulf states in search of foreign brides.

He said that the first marriage he helped to arrange was between Samira, a 22-year-old woman from the Damascus countryside, and a Saudi Arabian man almost 50 years her senior...

"Faris Suleiman al-Miqdad, who has a reputation as one of Syria’s leading matchmakers, said that every year, he marries about 50 Syrian women to Gulf men, mainly Saudis. He takes a commission from the groom of about 1,500 to 5,000 Saudi riyals or about 300 to 1,300 US dollars.

"Al-Miqdad, from the Dara province in southern Syria, said he receives calls from Gulf men and notes down their description and qualifications. He then provides them with the details of some young women, although without showing them pictures, in order to 'protect the honour of these girls'...

"Wisal, a 29-year-old dentist in Damascus, said she married a Saudi doctor whom she met through a matchmaker to avoid this stigma.

"'I am past the normal marrying age in my country,' she said.

"She said matchmaking offices provided a valuable service for women.

"'I think they make things easier for girls in Syria. They discourage them from having irreligious relationships,' said Wisal.

"Like Abu Jamal, Ahmed al-Barqawi, a philosophy and sociology professor at Damascus university, said poverty was another factor motivating families who agree to find foreign grooms for their daughters.

"'With our economy the way it is now, I think many young women are looking for a way to leave the country and find financial security elsewhere.

"'Marrying a Gulf man and moving to his country is an easy way to make this happen,” he said."

Globalized communications has created a minor industry in which men from wealthy countries seek out women from poorer ones as a way of hitting "out of their league." I wish there were more studies on this phenomenon, both in terms of how such marriages worked out and the impact on different communities.

The U.S. and Netanyahu

I second what Matthew Yglesias says:

"A government headed by a Prime Minister who wants to bomb Iran, who thinks he can dictate regional strategy to the President of the United States, and who opposes the creation of an independent Palestinian state backed up by a main coalition partner who rejects the concept of land-of-peace and the basic precepts of liberal democracy is just not a government you can work with as an ally. People keep saying that Netanyahu is more pragmatic than his rhetoric but if so he needs to demonstrate that pragmatism fast, or else the world will just have to hope his coalition collapse sooner rather than later."

The only quibble is that I don't think Lieberman has rejected "land for peace" as a concept, just its application in practical terms. That, of course, doesn't make the situation any better.