MLB 2015 Predictions

Here are my predictions for the upcoming major league baseball season, which is also the post which I hope marks my long-delayed return to regular blogging.

NL East

Washington
New York
Miami
Atlanta
Philadelphia

Forget the injury questions on offense, because the Nationals certainly have enough to win the division given their pitching staff.  On the next two teams, my head says Miami has the more reliable and balanced offense, but I have a feeling about the Mets this year, and think they will compete for a wild card.  Philadelphia's best players will be gone by August, putting them well behind a Braves team whose starters will be the reason to watch them this year.

NL Central

St. Louis
Pittsburgh (Wild Card)
Chicago
Milwaukee
Cincinnati

St. Louis and Pittsburgh are clearly a cut above everyone else here, and I'm picking the Cardinals because I think they can beat the Pirates at the trade deadline.  Chicago will be improved, but the back of their rotation still has problems.  That is also the problem with Milwaukee and Cincinnati.  The latter's window has closed, and will probably sink into last after being a seller at the trade deadline.

NL West

Los Angeles
San Diego (Wild Card)
San Francisco
Colorado
Arizona

Everyone knows the reasons Los Angeles is the best here.  I've wondered if San Diego might actually be the Marlins of a few years ago, when a big off-season turned into a fire sale which led to their current strengths.  However, I do like the Padres more than the rest of the division, and in fact find the division as a whole so weak that I'm picking said Padres to rack up the wins to earn the second wild card.  The Giants can get quality from Matt Cain, but apart from that have too many weaknesses compared to last year's second wild card team to get back this year.Colorado and Arizona both have good offenses, but the pitching is to terrible they will rank among the bottom teams in the league.

AL East

Toronto
New York (Wild Card)
Baltimore
Boston
Tampa Bay

This was my toughest call, but people forget the Blue Jays were first for much of last summer, and I see their offseason as providing necessary fortification.  If Tanaka and Pineda can combine for 350 innings and someone else in the rotation steps up to replace Hiroki Kuroda, then the Yankees will be better, but that's a lot of ifs.  Still, there's at least wild card talent there.  Baltimore's success has depended in part on winning one-run games, which will be much harder with a weaker bullpen.  Boston's problem isn't just the lack of an ace, but the fact that the starters they did pick up shouldn't be better than #4's on an elite team, and several will have to perform above expectations.  Tampa Bay's offense will be depressing.

AL Central

Cleveland
Detroit
Chicago
Kansas City
Minnesota

I'm picking a changing of the guard in this division.  Cleveland needs another starter, but has enough on the field to contend.  Detroit's pitching staff could easily implode, but should hold together well enough given their offense.  Chicago seems very hit-and-miss to me, sporting some very good additions but with deep question marks, as well.  Everyone worries about Bumgarner's innings from last year, but not those of the Kansas City bullpen that was a key to their success.  Minnesota still has lots of rebuilding in progress.

AL West

Seattle
Los Angeles (Wild Card)
Texas
Oakland
Houston

Although Nelson Cruz will have to conquer Safeco Field, Seattle is a solid team, with such veteran additions complementing what I predict will be breakout years by young players like James Paxton and Mike Zunino.  I'm less sold on Los Angeles, which last year ran away from the division when the rest of the teams simple collapsed.  People forget how good Texas can be, and even though Houston will be a better team than a year ago, they may not win more games given others' improvements, and so finish behind Oakland.

MLB 2014 Predictions

NL East

Washington
Atlanta
Miami
New York
Philadelphia

Washington may be healthier this year, but beyond that they also have more depth to make up for injuries which do arise.  I had them ahead of Atlanta even before the Braves lost two of their key starters for the year.  Miami will surprise some people with respectability, while New York sorts out the offense while waiting for pitching to arrive.  The Phillies will be the league's shopping center before the trade deadline.

NL Central

St. Louis
Cincinnati (Wild Card)
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Chicago

This Cardinals team has no weaknesses.  Cincinnati's pitching staff should be among the best in baseball, though Billy Hamilton will have to get on base before he can run.  Pittsburgh is taking a step back, though not a large or permanent one.  Milwaukee is interesting, and their number of quality starters should keep them in plenty of games, and perhaps even as trade deadline buyers.    Only the Cubs are sure to have a losing record in this division.

NL West

Los Angeles
San Diego (Wild Card)
San Francisco
Arizona
Colorado

Los Angeles has the best team money can buy, though they remind me a bit of the Cubs of a few years ago in perhaps not having the right make-up to win in October.  Lots of people are picking San Francisco to rebound, but I'm going to be daring and pick the Padres to keep climbing the standings.  Arizona's desperation to win now will bite them, while Colorado is still developing and may contend in 2015.

AL East

Tampa Bay
New York (Wild Card)
Boston
Baltimore
Toronto

This is the best Rays team ever, and doesn't really have any weaknesses.  Pineda will be an underrated cog in the Yankees rotation, but their infield and bullpen depth will keep them in second in what I expect to be a great race.  Boston will have trouble repeating from the starters and outfield, while Baltimore needs all their starters to be atypically in form to compete for the wild card.  Toronto needs an ace or two.

AL Central

Kansas City
Detroit (Wild Card)
Cleveland
Chicago
Minnesota

Detroit is the best team on paper, but as they always underachieve, I'm going to go ahead and pick Kansas City to win the division with steady starting pitching, a breakout offense, and lights-out bullpen.  Cleveland will miss Jimenez and Kazmir, while Chicago and Minnesota are still in rebuilding mode.

AL West

Oakland
Texas
Los Angeles
Seattle
Houston

This was the toughest division for me to conjure, but I'm saying Oakland has the depth to sort out their rotation before Texas does.  Texas can finish second, though for the start of the season it may be like the bashing Texas teams of my early graduate school years.  Los Angeles's rotation could be much better than everyone expects, and Pujols at least will be back in star form, though I still have questions about the offense.  Seattle needs another bat or two in the line-up, and Houston is Houston.

Field Hockey Champions

Congratulations to Shippensburg University's field hockey team, which tonight brought home the schools first NCAA national championship trophy in any sport:

The fate of the 2013 NCAA Division II Field Hockey Championship rested Sunday afternoon on the stick of Shippensburg University All-American senior forward Bre White.

Convert a penalty stroke – five minutes into sudden-death overtime – and win a national championship...

White converted right side through a small window between the outstretched left arm and left leg of the LIU Post goalkeeper as SU knocked off the previously-unbeaten Pioneers, 2-1, on a chilly, windy afternoon at the L.R. Hill Sports Complex on the campus of Old Dominion University.

Shippensburg's nine-member senior class – White, Katie Shoop, Carenna Neely, Taylor Bender, Lauren Taylor, Danielle Proctor, Brynn Seidenstricker, Megan Jett and Brittany Jett – conclude an historic four-year run with a 75-10 record, three appearances in the NCAA Semifinals, two appearances in the NCAA Championship Game and one NCAA Championship.

The team's final record on the year is 20-1.

MLB 2013 Predictions

NL East

Washington
Atlanta (Wild Card)
Philadelphia
New York
Miami

Everyone seems to agree on the order of finish in this division.  Last year Washington won 98 games despite a line-up hammered by injuries during the first half of the season.  Atlanta will be good, but they lost about as much as they gained in the offseason.  The Phillies won't have last year's horrible start, but lack the depth to make up for injuries, and the second half of their line-up really drops off unless Domonic Brown finally breaks out.  The Mets are rebuilding, but will still finish ahead of the Marlins.

NL Central

Cincinnati
St. Louis
Milwaukee
Pittsburgh
Chicago

Cincinnati will again make a legitimate run at the World Series, and the Cardinals will find ways to win with their homegrown talent.  Milwaukee's starting pitching looks better with Lohse, though he'll find Miller Park a different environment from Busch Stadium.  Pittsburgh has lots of above-average players, but especially on the pitching staff, they'll need more than that to contend in a division where everyone else has improved.  Chicago has a long-term plan, but will be last this year.

NL West

San Francisco
Arizona (Wild Card)
Los Angeles
San Diego
Colorado

San Francisco will do just what they did last year and what they probably would have done the year before if Posey hadn't been injured.  Arizona's pitching staff will come together and grab a wild card with their solid but unspectacular offense.  The Dodgers I'm just not buying, as there are reasons these players they've acquired were available.  San Diego's offense will keep improving and a couple of their starters will have solid years, but I can't see them approaching the top two.  Colorado still has things to figure out.

AL East

Toronto
Baltimore (Wild Card)
Tampa Bay
New York
Boston

Toronto only needs some of their new talent to work out in order to win this division.  Baltimore will have a more stable rotation this year, which helps them stand pat.  Tampa Bay's pitching will be shakier than usual; I think Moore is ready to dominate, but others who will be needed aren't.  If the Yankees make it to June respectably they can win one last division championship with this core, but I don't see how they get to June.  Boston will have good streaks, but be in last by the season's end.

AL Central

Detroit
Kansas City
Cleveland
Chicago
Minnesota

Detroit is better than last year and will again win the division, while Kansas City finally has the pitching to get into the post-season hunt.  Cleveland, on the other hand, doesn't have such pitching.  I think Chicago's first place run for most of last year was a fluke just because the rest of the division was playing so poorly.  Minnesota has deep problems.

AL West

Los Angeles
Texas (Wild Card)
Oakland
Seattle
Houston

Baseball's best division was also my hardest call.  Los Angeles won 89 games last year despite some horrid stretches, and is even better this year.  Texas is still a strong team that is beginning to cycle in new talent, beginning with Rookie of the Year candidate Leonys Martin.  Oakland has some starters who will fall to sophomore slumps, but they'll still be a threat all season.  Seattle is better offensively than they get credit for, but this division will be too much for them this year.  Houston is Houston.

MLB 2012 Predictions

NL East

Philadelphia
Miami (Wild Card)
Washington (Wild Card)
Atlanta
New York

The Phillies are getting old, but can still get it done, with Hunter Pence ready to spark the offense the way he did for the latter part of last year. Miami's offense might be a little better, but their pitching is somewhat worse unless a lot goes right. Washington is the team I see most regularly, and their bullpen is impressive this year, as are their possibilities to start. However, they need more offense from somewhere, even if we see a reversion to form by Jayson Werth. I don't have a good read on Atlanta, and someone has to be fourth in this division where everyone can beat the Mets.

NL Central

Cincinnati
Milwaukee
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Houston

Cincinnati has the best offense and lots of good pitching pieces, even if they don't yet know how to use them. That will be enough to overcome being managed by Dusty Baker. Milwaukee won't fall back as far as everyone says, especially if Zack Greinke can win on the road. St. Louis has the best pitching staff, but I'm guessing their performance during Pujols's early 2011 slump is a reasonable proxy for how they'll do without him. Pittsburgh isn't as bad as they used to be. I had to check and make sure Chicago was actually better than Houston. Now I'm sure.

NL West

Arizona
San Francisco
Los Angeles
San Diego
Colorado

Arizona's additions will enable them not only to defend their division title, but make them a legitimate World Series contender. San Francisco will be better than last year, but it won't be enough. Los Angeles has too many holes. Some of the people San Diego picked up will be better at Petco Park. The Rockies remind me of an older version of the Brewers teams from early in my graduate school career.

AL East

New York
Tampa Bay (Wild Card)
Toronto
Boston
Baltimore

I understand the logic of those who are picking Tampa Bay in this division. I'm just not going to do it. Toronto will finally pass the slipping Red Sox and be in a wild card race. Baltimore will be in their usual basement slot.

AL Central

Detroit
Cleveland
Kansas City
Minnesota
Chicago

The Tigers simply don't have competition in this division. Cleveland is probably the best of the also-rans, if Casey Kotchman can repeat his 2011 performance. Kansas City is coming on, but Chicago is shedding rather than rebuilding. Minnesota's season will not be as disastrous as last year's.

AL West

Texas
Los Angeles (Wild Card)
Oakland
Seattle

Los Angeles's additions will nab them a wild card spot, but Texas is still the better team. Oakland's starting pitching is now a major construction site, but their offense will still score more than Seattle's.

MLB 2011 Predictions

NL East

Philadelphia
Atlanta (Wild Card)
Florida
New York
Washington

There is a case to be made for Atlanta winning this division, but the Phillies have proven they can overcome the type of adversity people are expecting, and the stamina and professionalism of their pitching staff will overcome a weaker offense. Atlanta, however, will win the wild card.

NL Central

Milwaukee
Cincinnati
Chicago
St. Louis
Houston
Pittsburgh

Milwaukee has finally put some starters alongside a great offense. I'm concerned about the bullpen, but this is a better team than won the 2008 Wild Card. I'm expecting sophomore slumps from Cincinnati's pitching staff. If everything on their own team happens like the Cubs hope it will, they will win this division as they did two years ago, but I'm guessing that won't happen until next year.

NL West

San Francisco
Colorado
San Diego
Los Angeles
Arizona

The Giants are developing a strong young offense to produce runs for a pitching staff that equals or surpasses the Phillies'. Given that, I can see them not just winning the division, but am picking them to return to the World Series as NL champions.

AL East

Boston
Tampa Bay
New York
Toronto
Baltimore

Even if Boston were to suffer the same level of injury horror they did last year, Crawford and Gonzalez will make up for it. This team will win the World Series. The Rays still have parts to plug in, which will keep them ahead of the aging but still dangerous Yankees.

AL Central

Chicago
Minnesota (Wild Card)
Detroit
Kansas City
Cleveland

The White Sox have put together complete packages on both offense and at the plate, and represent Boston's biggest competition for the pennant. Minnesota is, as usual, stronger than people think. What pushes me into picking them for the Wild Card is that with the unbalanced schedule, improvements in Toronto and Baltimore will hold back Tampa Bay and potentially the Yankees.

AL West

Texas
Oakland
Los Angeles
Seattle

Oakland is following the San Francisco blueprint, but isn't quite there yet. I'm not fully sold on Texas's pitching staff, but it got them by last year, and they can prop it up through trades.

Qatar 2022

Qatar will host the 2022 World Cup:

"Qatar was awarded the 2022 World Cup in a vote by the Fifa executive committee today. It beat competition from the United States, Australia, South Korea and Japan.

"The Gulf country presented the most technically ambitious plans for a World Cup, using its 30-minute presentation to underline how the tournament could unify a region ravaged by conflict.

"Qatar brings the World Cup to the smallest host ever but one which has unparalleled financial clout to stage the world's biggest single-sport event. It overcame objections about holding the games in desert heat and asked Fifa to take a 'bold gamble...'

"Qatar will stage a World Cup in and around Doha in a desert summer but promises state-of-the-art technology to cool fans and players alike.

"After the elimination of Australia, Japan and South Korea, it came down to a duel between the United States, promising huge commercial spoils in a key growth market, and the new territory of the Gulf region, still flush with riches despite the global financial crisis."

October Baseball

This is Doubleday Field in Cooperstown, New York, the traditional site of baseball's invention. Time for some October baseball!

Winning 300

Tom Singer says outright something I've noticed lately, that some have predicted each of the last few 300-game winners would be the last. I disagree, however, with the tone of his article, that Randy Johnson really is the last. What's happening is that, while pitchers are getting fewer wins in a season, they're also having longer careers. As one of the commenters notes, it's not unthinkable that Andy Pettitte will still be playing in his early 40's, and that many of the young arms out there today, such as C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, and Carlos Zambrano don't have many great seasons ahead of them in which to approach the milestone.

Bleeding Blue

After an amazing run, the St. Louis Blues are back in the playoffs:

"Chris Mason made 28 saves for his sixth shutout of the season, helping the St. Louis Blues take the sixth playoff spot in the Western Conference with a 1-0 win over the Colorado Avalanche on Sunday in the regular-season finale.

"The Blues, in the playoffs for the first time in five years, will face Vancouver in the opening round.

"St. Louis enters the postseason on quite a roll, going 9-1-1 down the stretch...

"St. Louis made up a lot of ground just to climb into the playoffs. The team was at the bottom of the conference in mid-February, then finished an NHL-best 25-9-7 in the second half to earn a spot."

I hate to say it, but when you're on that kind of roll, anything can happen.

Palin and the Blues

As a St. Louis Blues fan, I now have yet another reason for disliking Sarah Palin:

"When you roll out a blue carpet for a Republican vice presidential nominee, bad things are bound to happen. Sure enough, while Sarah Palin worked the runway without incident – and to only a light smattering of boos – to drop the ceremonial first puck for Friday's Kings-Blues tilt, the carpet tripped up St. Louis goalie Manny Legace, who toughed it out for a period before taking the rest of the night off to nurse an injured hip flexor."

Blue Sox Win!

As a diehard fan of the Bet Shemesh Blue Sox, I want to congratulate them on winning the championship in the Israel Baseball League's first season.

Granted, I didn't notice this until today, four days after it happened, but by the IBL's standards, that still allows me to claim diehard fan status.

Israeli Baseball Begins

This coming Sunday, Israel's first professional baseball league will begin play. This is pretty cool, even though the quality of play will undoubtedly be low. One team drafted Sandy Koufax. The official web site is here, though it isn't working very well for me at the moment.