Iraqi Break-Up

I have to date been quite vehement in my opposition to the idea that Iraq will break up after the fashion of Yugoslavia, though I do feel a civil war is possible. However, this al-Jazeera article raises some interesting spectres as it goes into plans to have elections for Shi'ite areas only while leaving the Sunni center under occupation. This could lead to a situation where you have three independent governments in Iraq, or rather independent governments for Kurdish and Shi'ite areas and puppet occupation control of the Sunni center. If the center remains turbulent, it becomes more plausible that other areas of the country may simply decide to strike out on their own, though at present there is no internal constituency advocating that. A lot would depend on whether the Shi'ite and Kurdish leaders cooperated with the occupation authorities or sought to advance the interests of Sunni insurgents.