Sunday, January 25, 2004

Saudi Peace Plan

The Saudis have offered a comprehensive peace plan for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Several things to notice:

1.) It is almost identical to Crown Prince Abdullah's Spring 2002 plan that fell by the wayside after the Seder bombing and subsequent Israeli response. (In other words, I don't think the fall of Saddam Hussein had anything to do with it.)
2.) The components of the plan may be standard, but by internationalizing the situation you change the balance involved. The Israelis may not trust the PA, but they could find a modus vivendi with the Arab states collectively. This also sweetens the deal.
3.) Given the story just out about possible plans for the U.S. to confront Hizbullah, I'm wondering how and if the pieces fit together. I've already said that on paper, confronting Hizbullah dampens militant attacks on Israel, thus creating a possible environment for peace.
4.) The Middle East players are all definitely moving, as Sharon talks about withdrawing from the Golan, Arafat warns that time may be running out on the two-state solution, and Syria also presses for negotiations. Something may actually happen within a year or two.

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