Iraqi Resistance

According to Hiwa Osman of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, the recent spate of car bombings has turned Iraqis against the resistance, which they believe to be composed of foreign Islamists and former Ba'athists. With all their focus on religion as a key factor in the Iraqi worldview, the mainstream media seems to keep missing the importance of Iraqi nationalism. Since at least the early twentieth century some Iraqis have opposed the influence of ethnic Persians in the shrine cities, and Muqtada Sadr tapped into that back in April in his rhetoric against Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani.

Ironically, it is Muqtada Sadr himself who has the foreign connections, as his movement has received the backing of Iran's hard-liners. David Ignatius in the Washington Post claims that the U.S. is preparing a crackdown on Sadr, partly because they feel he has crossed a line they can't ignore and partly because they wish to defend the traditional religious authorities with their more moderate stance toward the occupation. Juan Cole mentions evidence that Sadr's popularity is just because he is the most outspoken resistance leader, but still he's gained his influence through the Sadr network which has been in development since the late 1990's.

I should mention here that there seems to be little public evidence to connect the Sadriyun to the bombings Iraqis oppose, though the U.S. has tried to link them. Nonetheless, if the U.S. can portray Sadr as one of the foriegn troublemakers, they might have the clout to move against him and prevail, even at the risk of a short-term increase in violence. Furthermore, the IWPR story also made explicit that Iraqis remain unhappy with the Americans, as well, for the usual reasons. Still, if the U.S. can begin chipping away at resistance elements with increased popular support, it will gradually improve security, and if undertaken with sincere and solid political progress, could lead to a relatively happy ending in Iraq yet.