Saturday, January 24, 2015

Sudairis Ascendant

With the accession of King Salman in Saudi Arabia, former Deputy Crown Prince Muqrin has been confirmed as moving up to crown prince.  King Salman has also appointed a new deputy crown prince, Muhammad b. Nayef.  Middle East Eye sees this as part of a generalized enhancement of the power of the Sudairi Seven princely lines:
"King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud is now the ruler of Saudi Arabia, and has moved swiftly to appoint his son, 34-year-old Mohammed bin Salman, as Defence Minister and head of the Royal Court.

The newly-anointed monarch promoted Muqrin bin Abdulaziz to Crown Prince, now first in line to the throne, from being deputy, and appointed 55-year-old Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayef as the second heir.

The new appointments herald a new era in Saudi monarchical politics, marked by the resurgence of the “Sudairi Seven,” a powerful alliance of sons of King Abdulaziz named after their mother Hassa bint Ahmad al-Sudairi.

The late Abdullah – whose mother was from the Shammar Bedouin tribe – was not one of the seven Sudairi brothers, and the first indications suggest that his men are being pushed out of power.

Abdullah’s son Mutaib – who is minister of the National Guard – has been overlooked to become deputy Crown Prince in favour of Mohammed bin Nayef.

His former head of the Royal Court, Khalid al-Tuwijri, has been replaced by the young Mohammed bin Salman.

This has been reported as having immediately undermined Abdullah’s legacy and affirmed the renewed power of the Sudairi alliance."
Muqrin's position of deputy crown prince existed at least in part as a safety net due to the poor health of the crown prince candidates.  There was no guarantee that it would continue into the new reign. That it has suggests that Muhammad b. Nayef really is the preferred heir, and Salman and his allies want to make sure want to make sure he is in line and can start accumulating the tools of informal power.

At the same time, however, Muqrin is crown prince, and not one of the Sudairi Seven.  As Salman's reign unfolds, we could see him removed as crown prince in favor of Muhammad.  Alternately, he could reign, but leave Muhammad in place as his own heir.  Muqrin being able to replace Muhammad as heir with one of his own sons seems less likely.  The longer Salman reigns, the more probable the first option becomes.
King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud is now the ruler of Saudi Arabia, and has moved swiftly to appoint his son, 34-year-old Mohammed bin Salman, as Defence Minister and head of the Royal Court. - See more at: http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/mohammed-bin-nayef-kingpin-new-saudi-arabia-country-experts-1500997678#sthash.BY64I7yZ.C3DwDjXg.dpuf
King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud is now the ruler of Saudi Arabia, and has moved swiftly to appoint his son, 34-year-old Mohammed bin Salman, as Defence Minister and head of the Royal Court. - See more at: http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/mohammed-bin-nayef-kingpin-new-saudi-arabia-country-experts-1500997678#sthash.BY64I7yZ.C3DwDjXg.dpuf
King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud is now the ruler of Saudi Arabia, and has moved swiftly to appoint his son, 34-year-old Mohammed bin Salman, as Defence Minister and head of the Royal Court. - See more at: http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/mohammed-bin-nayef-kingpin-new-saudi-arabia-country-experts-1500997678#sthash.BY64I7yZ.C3DwDjXg.dpuf
King Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud is now the ruler of Saudi Arabia, and has moved swiftly to appoint his son, 34-year-old Mohammed bin Salman, as Defence Minister and head of the Royal Court. - See more at: http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/mohammed-bin-nayef-kingpin-new-saudi-arabia-country-experts-1500997678#sthash.BY64I7yZ.C3DwDjXg.dpuf

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