Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Speedy Verdicts

Israel has finished its investigation into alleged misconduct in Gaza:
"In a press release issued Monday the army said that Brig. Gen. Avichai Mendelblit instructed the Military Police Investigation unit to close the case after a preliminary investigation into the testimonies revealed that they 'were based on hearsay and not first-hand experience.'

"'There is no other army in the world that is as introspective as the IDF, that scrutinizes its conduct in such a genuine and serious way after an operation," Barak continued. "I'm happy these as the results [of the investigation], and that once again our claim that the IDF is the most moral army in the world - top commanders and low-ranking soldiers alike - has proved truthful.'"

What self-congratulatory rubbish. There was no real investigation of the significant number of claims about what happened in Gaza, only a desire to bracket certain testimony as imperfect and a fear of following where it might lead.

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Sunday, March 29, 2009

Nayef and Talal

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah recently appointed his half brother Prince Nayef as Second Deputy Prime Minister. Another half brother, Prince Talal, wants to ensure this doesn't mean Nayef is now second in line for the throne:
"The statement, by Prince Talal Bin Abdul Aziz, came after the Saudi royal court announced on Friday the appointment of Prince Nayef Bin Abdul Aziz as second deputy prime minister, a promotion that means he will run the kingdom when the monarch and crown prince are away...

"'I call on the royal court to clarify what is meant by this nomination and that it does not mean that he [Prince Nayef] will become crown prince,' Prince Talal said in a faxed statement sent to Reuters...

"Prince Talal said the appointment of Prince Nayef as crown prince should be decided by the Allegiance Council, made up of the most prominent members of the Al Saud family who would vote to appoint future crown princes."

What are some points here? Both Nayef and Prince Sultan, the current heir, are members of the "Sudayri Six," a powerful group of full brothers within the royal family. King Abdullah may be reassuring them about their succession prospects while he pursues his own agenda, and they may be inclined to use the next succession and the Allegiance Council to promote the interests of their own sons in the next generation. If memory serves, Prince Talal led a left-wing nationalist faction back in the 1950's and 1960's, is substantially younger than the Sudayri princes, and has traditionally formed part of a block of younger sons of King 'Abd al-Aziz Ibn Said. If that is the case, his interest in the current succession battle is obvious.

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An Orchestra Disbanded

Some decisions made in the Arab-Israeli conflict aren't as important as imposing a blockade on Gaza, but are just so senseless that you want to scream. Here is an example:
"Palestinian authorities disbanded a youth orchestra from a West Bank refugee camp after it played for a group of Holocaust survivors in Israel, a local official said on Sunday.

"Adnan Hindi of the Jenin camp called the Holocaust a political issue and accused conductor Wafa Younis of unknowingly dragging the children into a political dispute...

"Hindi said Palestinians - especially in his hardscrabble cinder block refugee camp - had suffered at the hands of Israel and demanded their grievances be acknowledged first."

Let's take a look at the incident that caused this reaction:
"The choir burst into songs for peace, bringing surprised smiles from the audience. But the event had another twist: Most of the Holocaust survivors did not know the youths were Palestinians from the West Bank, a rare sight in Israel these days. And the youths had no idea they were performing for people who lived through Nazi genocide - or even what the Holocaust was.

"'I feel sympathy for them,' said Ali Zeid, an 18-year-old keyboard player, who added that he was shocked by what he learned about the Holocaust, in which the Nazis killed 6 million Jews in their campaign to wipe out European Jewry. 'Only people who have been through suffering understand each other,' said Zeid, who said his grandparents were Palestinian refugees forced to flee the northern city of Haifa during the war that followed Israel's creation in 1948."

Maybe bringing a bit of understanding would help end this conflict and all the suffering it entails more quickly than would refusing to mention the Holocaust.

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Thursday, March 26, 2009

PJAK's Terrorist Designation

I missed this when it happened last month, but the Obama administration has designated PJAK, a Kurdish anti-Iranian terrorist group, a terrorist group:
"Although the Bush administration added the PKK to the list of designated terrorist organizations, it was more tolerant toward PJAK, which led to allegations that America and Israel supported PJAK as a way to destabilize Iran. [9] Shortly after coming to power, the Obama administration designated PJAK as a terrorist organization controlled by the PKK. By this decision, Washington signaled that it would adopt a more principled approach in the fight against terrorism. This development also signifies a change in the American attitude towards the intricate relationships between Turkey, Iran and the PKK. Turkey welcomed the decision and saw it as the fruit of its new policy of building international coalitions to eradicate PKK terror, particularly through closer collaboration with the United States and northern Iraqi Kurdish authorities. A statement from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs underlined Ankara’s satisfaction with the U.S. acknowledgment of PKK-PJAK ties (Anadolu Ajansi, February 6).

"The PKK, in contrast, increasingly feels that it is being encircled as a result of recent developments. PJAK officials condemned the U.S. designation and claimed that for over a year the United States already had a de facto policy of pleasing Turkey and Iran by intensifying pressure on PKK and PJAK. The organization noted that northern Iraqi authorities were also supportive of this new policy (Gundem Online, February 12; February 17). PJAK challenged the Obama administration, arguing that the terrorist designation would not deter their struggle."

The article has a lot of interesting information about the relationships among Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Syria, and Kurdish groups. What's missing is the question of whether this move might have been a quiet early step toward rapprochement with Iran.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Holiday Globalization

Am American Christmas tradition hits Tajikistan:
"Tajiks added a new element to the traditional Nouruz celebrations this year -- a slightly modified version of Santa Claus.

"'Nouruz Santa's' long white beard and sack bear a striking resemblance to Santa Claus, but his robe and walking stick are more colorful and wrapped with flowers."

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Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Red Tide

Parts of Ras al-Khaimah are without their normal water supply due to a "red tide" algal bloom:
"Ghaleelah Desalination Plant has been sealed off following the spread of "red tide" on the coast in the emirate's northern areas, but mostly in Ghaleelah.

"The northern regional office of the Federal Electricity and Water Authority (Fewa) announced the official, temporary closure of the plant until the phenomenon is over.

"Sources in the department said that work in the plant will be resumed once the red tide is no longer in the area, adding that Fewa is working hard to provide residents with suitable alternatives to meet their daily water needs. The sources added that local need in the Ghaleelah area and other affected areas would be met by sending water containers and pumping water from nearby wells."

I'm just starting to look into the details of Gulf environmental issues, but this type of phenomenon has lots of human causes, and it wouldn't surprise me if the UAE were once again causing its own problem.

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Monday, March 23, 2009

Lieberman and American Jews

Matthew Yglesias notes American Jews' reactions to Avigdor Lieberman:
"In J Street’s new poll of American Jewish opinion, they found that 'When told about Lieberman’s campaign slogan requiring Arab citizens of Israel to sign loyalty oaths and his threats against Arab Members of Knesset, American Jews opposed these positions by a 69 to 31 margin. One in three believe their own connection to Israel will be diminished, if Lieberman assumes a senior position in the Israeli cabinet.'"

Obviously I don't have stats, but the sense I get from pro-Israel college students I know is that they consider Avigdor Lieberman an unacceptable choice for a high post in Israel's government, though it remains to be seen whether this will concretely affect their actions. I doubt people in Israel fully realize how this plays abroad. As this Imshin post suggests, lots of Israelis see him as simply a natural part of the political landscape. Israelis have lived through a slow deterioration of Jewish-Arab relations in their country, and the right-wing nationalism in the ascendant is more than likely to call attention to the internal Other as well as perceived threats from abroad. Many American Jews, however, know only approximately what hasbara types want them to know. This does not include deep and virulent internal social fissures that give rise to a political actor whose presentation goes against the ideals their American upbringing has led them to value. Many such people, and I'm thinking mainly of college students those just a little older whom I know, base their loyalty to Israel on a belief that it embodies those values, and as it strays from the path, a decline in that loyalty is inevitable.

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Egyptian Labor Unrest

Eman AbdElRahman rounds up some coverage of labor unrest in Egypt. This story is worth more attention than its getting and his post is worth reading in full.

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Sunday, March 22, 2009

Barak's Ambition

I haven't commented on Israel's coalition negotiations, though I will once its finalized. However, is there any doubt left that Ehud Barak cares almost entirely about his own career ambitions?
"Labor and Likud negotiators were expected to hold their first meeting on Sunday, but the talks were postponed until the following morning. The Labor representatives comprise Histadrut labor federation chairman Ofer Eini, Agriculture Minister Shalom Simhon and attorney Alon Gelhart.

"Barak said Sunday morning that Israel needed unity in place of a narrow rightist government. He urged the centrist Kadima party to launch talks with Likud, as well.

"Earlier, the Labor leader had refused to make the same pledge, leading to speculation that he could resign from the faction if his stance was not adopted by party members."

Joining a government dominated by Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu would be the end of Labor, which depends for a comeback on a dramatic political rejection of the Israeli right. Nobody wants to be led by a party of institutions and personal ambition without a vision for the future, and I see no vision Labor advances by serving as a fig leaf for what's to come.

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Women in Saudi Intelligence

A Saudi royal speaks:
"Female members of Saudi Arabia's General Intelligence Directorate have won plaudits from the agency's chief, Prince Muqrin Bin Abdul Aziz.

"'Every Saudi woman can be proud of the excellent performance of their fellow members in the General Intelligence Directorate... Their reports, analysis and proposals are 10 times better than their male counterparts,' he said.

"Prince Muqrin made the remarks extolling female employees of the agency during a press conference in Riyadh on Saturday evening during a visit to King Saud University."

This is probably meant to play into the larger debate within Saudi society over women's proper professional roles.

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Saturday, March 21, 2009

IDF T-Shirts

It's starting to look like those warning of a culture of dehumanization of Arabs in the IDF have a point:
"The office at the Adiv fabric-printing shop in south Tel Aviv handles a constant stream of customers, many of them soldiers in uniform, who come to order custom clothing featuring their unit's insignia, usually accompanied by a slogan and drawing of their choosing. Elsewhere on the premises, the sketches are turned into plates used for imprinting the ordered items, mainly T-shirts and baseball caps, but also hoodies, fleece jackets and pants. A young Arab man from Jaffa supervises the workers who imprint the words and pictures, and afterward hands over the finished product.

"Dead babies, mothers weeping on their children's graves, a gun aimed at a child and bombed-out mosques - these are a few examples of the images Israel Defense Forces soldiers design these days to print on shirts they order to mark the end of training, or of field duty. The slogans accompanying the drawings are not exactly anemic either: A T-shirt for infantry snipers bears the inscription 'Better use Durex,' next to a picture of a dead Palestinian baby, with his weeping mother and a teddy bear beside him. A sharpshooter's T-shirt from the Givati Brigade's Shaked battalion shows a pregnant Palestinian woman with a bull's-eye superimposed on her belly, with the slogan, in English, '1 shot, 2 kills.' A 'graduation' shirt for those who have completed another snipers course depicts a Palestinian baby, who grows into a combative boy and then an armed adult, with the inscription, 'No matter how it begins, we'll put an end to it.'

"There are also plenty of shirts with blatant sexual messages. For example, the Lavi battalion produced a shirt featuring a drawing of a soldier next to a young woman with bruises, and the slogan, 'Bet you got raped!' A few of the images underscore actions whose existence the army officially denies - such as "confirming the kill" (shooting a bullet into an enemy victim's head from close range, to ensure he is dead), or harming religious sites, or female or child non-combatants."

I would have liked to see numbers with this story to assess just how widespread this kind of thing is, but unfortunately they weren't there. The article include's soldiers' fear of social disapproval, which is a hopeful sign. Some will shrug and say that there is similar dehumanization of Jewish Israelis in Arab countries, but that doesn't excuse this, even if both forms of bigotry contribute to a culture of mutual dehumanization that gives rise to cycles of this sort of thing.

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Thursday, March 19, 2009

Aliyev's Amendments

Opposition leaders and the Council of Europe are upset over a probably fraudulent referendum which scrapped term limits for the country's presidency. This referendum was a ploy by the regime of current president Ilham Aliyev to keep legal democratic trappings around his increasing dictatorship. While I agree that the international community shouldn't play along with this, I see little chance of the fundamentals of the situation changing in the near future. Aliyev rule remains popular, as the father ended the Karabakh War, while the son has benefited from the country's natural gas wealth, and I see little grassroots support for shaking up the system.

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More Gaza Allegations

I was notoriously ambivalent toward Israel's decision to engage in military operations in Gaza, but more and more accounts are emerging suggesting that IDF soldiers committed war crimes while there:
"During Operation Cast Lead, Israeli forces killed Palestinian civilians under permissive rules of engagement and intentionally destroyed their property, say soldiers who fought in the offensive.

"The soldiers are graduates of the Yitzhak Rabin pre-military preparatory course at Oranim Academic College in Tivon. Some of their statements made on Feb. 13 will appear Thursday and Friday in Haaretz. Dozens of graduates of the course who took part in the discussion fought in the Gaza operation.

"The speakers included combat pilots and infantry soldiers. Their testimony runs counter to the Israel Defense Forces' claims that Israeli troops observed a high level of moral behavior during the operation. The session's transcript was published this week in the newsletter for the course's graduates."

Underlying the alleged actions seems to be the sharp anti-Arab bigotry which is spreading in Israeli society:
"The squad leader said he argued with his commander over the permissive rules of engagement that allowed the clearing out of houses by shooting without warning the residents beforehand. After the orders were changed, the squad leader's soldiers complained that 'we should kill everyone there [in the center of Gaza]. Everyone there is a terrorist.'

"The squad leader said: 'You do not get the impression from the officers that there is any logic to it, but they won't say anything. To write 'death to the Arabs' on the walls, to take family pictures and spit on them, just because you can. I think this is the main thing: To understand how much the IDF has fallen in the realm of ethics, really. It's what I'll remember the most.'"

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

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Wednesday, March 18, 2009

New Name

I've now changed the blog's name as well as its appearance. The idea of "study breaks" was a bit out of date.

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Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Kuwait's Parliamentary Circus

In the latest political crisis in Kuwait, the Cabinet has resigned and Parliament could be suspended for up to two years. The latest flare-up began when Islamist MP's in Parliament insisted on trying to question the prime minister. Trey provides some analysis:
"The idea that Islamists are abusing their right to question ministers has been frequently charged both inside and outside Kuwait. This is not totally off the mark, as the case of Education Minister Nouriya al-Sabeeh, but it is not always the case either. Corruption is a problem – it comes from recycling the same characters over and over. The cabinet room is filled with musical chairs."

Corruption may be a problem, but as much as I'd like to stand on the rights of elected bodies, these MP's were ill-advised to push red lines at a time when there is apparently little popular support for doing so.

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Monday, March 16, 2009

Egyptian Strikes

Hard economic times are causing labor unrest in Egypt:
"In mid-February, lorry drivers declared a five-day strike over provisions in a new traffic law banning articulated trailers. Days later, more than 40,000 privately owned pharmacies also staged a strike for several days to protest a government decision to apply taxes to pharmacies retroactively.

"Late February and early March saw more workers' actions. Lawyers called a strike protesting proposed legislation in parliament that called for increased court fees, while administrators employed by the ministry of education also declared a strike over unpaid bonuses. Most recently, on Mar. 5, employees at a newly privatised textile factory announced a strike after a dispute over profit-sharing. Education ministry administrators are still awaiting an official response to their demands.

"The other workers' actions, however, have succeeded in prising some limited gains from the government. After intervention by President Hosni Mubrak, truck drivers were given a longer grace period to comply with required safety standards. Pharmacists received promises from the state that the offensive tax regime would be reconsidered.

"Lawyers, too, received government assurances that the new draft law on court fees would be subject to re-evaluation. Textile workers have kept up their strike, although they received a degree of satisfaction after the new owner of the formerly state-owned company, citing financial losses, offered to return the firm to Egyptian public ownership."

Will all this affect the regime's stability? Probably not, as the government usually knows how much and when to give, and there is no credible alternative that could serve as a unifying anti-regime banner.

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Khatami Out

As I predicted last week, former Iranian president Muhammad Khatami is withdrawing from the presidential race:
"Iran's moderate former president Mohammad Khatami on March 16 withdrew his candidacy from the country's June presidential election, a close ally told Reuters.

"'He has decided to withdraw...but he will back another moderate candidate who will be announced shortly in a statement by Khatami,' the ally, who declined to be named, said.

"The ally did not give a reason for the withdrawal nor did he name the politician who Khatami would back but the former president had a meeting with another moderate candidate, former prime minister Mirhossein Mousavi, on March 15."

Expect Khatami to support Mousavi.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

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Sunday, March 15, 2009

Resurrection

"The resurrection, in the full Jewish and early Christian sense, is the ultimate affirmation that creation matters, that embodied human beings matter."

"And the creator, according to some of the most ancient Jewish beliefs, grieved so much over creation gone wrong, over humankind in rebellion, over thorns and thistles and dust and death, that he planned from the beginning the way by which he would rescue his world, his creation, his history, from its tragic corruption and decay; the way, therefore, by which he would rescue his image-bearing creatures, the muddled and rebellious human beings, from their doubly tragic fate; the way, therefore, by which he would be most truly himself, would become most truly himself. The story of Jesus of Nazareth which we find in the New Testament offers itself, as Jesus himself had offered his public work and words, his body and blood, as the answer to this multiple problem: the arrival of God's kingdom precisely in the world of space, time, and matter, the world of injustice and tyranny, of empire and crucifixions. This world is where the kingdom must come, on earth as it is in heaven."

"It is the real world that, in the earliest stories of Jesus' resurrection, was decisively and for ever reclaimed by that event, an event which demanded to be understood, not as a bizarre miracle, but as the beginning of the new creation."

-N.T. Wright (The Resurrection of the Son of God)

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Saturday, March 14, 2009

Pi Day

Steve Benen notes Rachel Maddow asking, "Who votes no on Pi Day?" As it turns out, my future congressman Bill Shuster does.

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Friday, March 13, 2009

Reading Khan al-Khalili

Chris Zambelis has some thoughts on the recent spate of violence in Egypt:
"There are no indications that the bombing at Khan al-Khalili and the subsequent attacks in the market and subway station are in any way connected. However, the timing of the attacks, coming so soon after Israel’s December invasion of Gaza, may be telling. Egypt was widely seen across the Middle East as having actively conspired with the Israelis against the Palestinians of Gaza. This wave of attacks may therefore represent the first round in a looming campaign of violence led by a new generation of Islamic militants with no formal ties to established terrorist organizations, but who are nonetheless driven to retaliate against the Mubarak regime for its perceived complicity in Israel’s attack against Gaza."

There's a possible deeper point here than just whether these attacks were motivated by Israel's assault on the Gaza Strip. Attacks such as these in Egypt are happening at the same time attacks by individuals with bulldozers are becoming the new security threat in Jerusalem. Up until now, attempts to fight terrorism have been based on either alleged state support for terrorist organizations and networks or the disruption and dismantling of such organizations themselves. What we're starting to see more of, however, is a form of terrorism most similar to the apolitical random shooting which occasionally plague American society. How one combats these is an open question.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

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al-Qaeda-Israel Axis (Not!)

In a strange twist on the conspiracy theory that holds Israel responsible for the September 11 attacks, some Islamic militants allege significant operational ties between Israel and al-Qaeda:
"Since Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh announced the arrest of an al-Qaeda cell connected with Israel on October 6, 2008, many Islamist forum members have continued to speculate on al-Qaeda’s possible links to Israel (Al-Arabiya, October 6, 2008; AFP, October 7, 2008). Moderate Islamists questioned al-Qaeda’s ability to perpetrate massive attacks such as 9/11 without the help of a powerful country such as Israel or the United States. Others believe al-Qaeda is being manipulated by these countries, which also explains why al-Qaeda is incapable of attacking Israel (al-yemen.org, January 10). Pro-al-Qaeda jihadi internet forums responded to these speculations by posting instances of al-Qaeda generated attacks on Israeli targets (muslm.net, February 14).

"Those speculating on al-Qaeda’s possible links to Israel question the chances of a group of Islamists being able to penetrate US defenses, especially those of the U.S. Department of Defense (as in the Pentagon attack), unless they have inside collaborators. A forum member, nicknamed Sarhan, points to the Islamic terrorist cell arrested in Yemen in 2008 as proof of al-Qaeda’s ties to Israel. Sarhan alleges that Israel, in an attempt to divert attention from its secret links with al-Qaeda on the eve of the arrest of the Yemeni terror cell, sowed confusion in Yemen’s international waters by encouraging simple Somalis to disrupt international maritime traffic in the narrow strait between Somalia and Yemen. As evidence, Sarhan cites the use of high tech weapons and equipment that Somalis do not usually possess nor could operate unless trained by a highly capable country. The other diversion Israel tried to create, Sarhan alleges, involved accusing Yemen of supplying Hamas with Chinese-made rockets. Another forum member agreed with Sarhan’s hypothesis: 'You said the right thing. Al-Qaeda is simply a Zionist organization set up to dismantle Islam and invade the Arab world. All the sectarian violence we are witnessing today is the work of the Jewish lobby' (al-yemen.org, January 10)."

Needless to say, I don't actually believe this.

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Wednesday, March 11, 2009

New Look

After six years, my template was really creaking, so I've adopted a new look. This was just brought in from the set blogger templates and updated with my particular content. This summer I may get exceptionally wild and migrate to a new URL.

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The Mousavi Candidacy

After previously indicating he would not, Mir Husayn Mousavi, Iran's prime minister during the 1980's, has announced his presidential campaign. This is being reported in American media primarily as dividing the reformist camp. His candidacy, however, actually shows the limits of the reformist/conservative divide for understanding Iranian politics.

As much as Iranians like philosopher-presidents, the most important issue for most Iranians this summer will be the economy. Of the other two "reformist" candidates, former President Muhammad Khatami has not, to my knowledge, substantially addressed it, while Mehdi Karrubi, who finished third in the first round of voting in 2005, has campaigned on cutting checks directly to Iranians from the country's oil wealth. Mousavi, who opened the door for Khatami in 1997 by declining attempts by the reformist to recruit him as their candidate, is best known for keeping the economy strong during the Iran-Iraq War, and will be seen as a credible figure as he wages a campaign this time combining reformist ideals with the economic populism that served as Ahmadinejad's meal ticket to office.

In any case, Mousavi's entry may lead Khatami to simply withdraw from the race. He first entered on the understanding Musavi would not run, and because of his failures promoting the reformist agenda during his 1997-2005 presidency, some reformist leaders are looking to other candidates.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

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Monday, March 09, 2009

Tajik Laicism

Two bits of news reported recently by RFE-RL suggest that the major goals of Tajikistan's religious policy is and perhaps has been for some time to consolidate the state's control over religion. One is a draft bill giving priority to Hanafi Sunni Islam and banning the proselytizing of other religions. That law would also increase regulation of religious schools even as the government introduces a standardized Hanafism into its curriculum, without consulting religious leaders who may be sympathetic to the opposition Islamic Renaissance Party.

Tajikistan is not a Turkic nation, but its moves may be related to increasing Turkish influence in Central Asia as a model of Islamic modernity. Turkey is famous for its public secularism, but at the same time the government controls religious knowledge in the country, imposing Sunni teachings on the Alevi minority. I suspect the origins of this lie in efforts to break the power of the ulama and homogenize a Turkish nation. Similar issues are at play in Tajikistan, which is in the midst of a post-Soviet nation-building project, has a strong Islamist movement, and includes a substantial religious minority, in this case Isma'ili. It may also stem from an official nationalism seen when President Emamoli Rahmon dropped the "ov" from his name and urged Tajiks to return to their cultural roots in the post-Soviet era.

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Sunday, March 08, 2009

Defining Public Sex

A man from Myanmar has a practical take on what defines "public sex":
"A salesman has denied committing public indecency and claimed in court that no one was watching him when he had consensual sex with his female partner on Jumeirah beach.

"Records said the 26-year-old salesman, from Myanmar, was caught having sex with his 20-year-old compatriot saleswoman on the open beach...

"'I did consume liquor and had consensual sex with my partner, but I didn't commit any indecency in public... there was no one watching when we were on the beach,' argued the salesman, L.Z."

I'm not buying it. There seems to be a bit of this going around Emirati beaches.

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Saturday, March 07, 2009

Turkey and Darfur

I'm used to Arab regimes not exactly covering themselves in glory when it comes to Darfur, but had expected better of Turkey. Emrullah Uslu takes a look at the reasons for Turkey's resistance to the ICC's indictment of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir:
"It seems that Turkey does not want al-Bashir to leave his post, because Ankara hopes to keep Sudan a unified country. More importantly, the al-Bashir government supports Turkey's dispute with Cyprus. In addition, al-Bashir's government wants to see the Turkish military deployed in Darfur to control the territory (Aksiyon, January 1, 2008).

"Knowing that Ankara's main foreign policy objective in the region is to support the integrity of existing countries, one could expect Ankara to support al-Bashir for the sake of Sudanese unity. Even more, Ankara may hope to benefit from Sudan's recently discovered oil fields. These two possible motives have not been widely discussed in the media, perhaps because of a lack of knowledge about the region and perhaps even because Turkish diplomats are unsure about al-Bashir's future. Ankara's wholehearted support of al-Bashir would seem to indicate that Turkey considers Sudan to be an important country in its Africa strategy in the near future."

There's also a belief in much of the Islamic world that the international community's concern with Darfur displays a double standard that targets Muslims while letting others go, especially Israel. I'd argue instead that, after Rwanda, people are sensitized to genocide in Africa in a way they aren't to generalized human rights violations wherever they occur.

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Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Israelis' Strategic Worldview

Matthew Yglesias is on to something here:
"Something that hasn’t quite gotten the square focus that I think it deserves is that Israelis (almost universally across the spectrum) and non-Israelis have started to see the greater Middle East through wildly different lenses. To the vast majority of external observers, the primary issue facing Israel is the Palestinian issue. The continued growth of settlements, the growing strength of Palestinian radicals, and the dramatic rightward shift of Israeli politics all point toward a closing window of opportunity for a two-state solution. To the vast majority of Israeli observers, the primary issue facing Israel is Iran and there’s a powerful, if somewhat odd, desire to believe that the Palestinian problem is basically an epiphenomenon of the conflict with Iran."

The biggest reason for this is that, for sound historical reasons, Israeli Jews fear annihilation, and Iran is seen as that kind of threat. At this point, the Palestinians are a danger to the Zionist project mainly in the demographic sense, something that hasn't yet sunk in with many in the country. Politically, it's also much easier for Israeli leaders to take a tough line on Iran than it is to deal with the divisive questions of the conflict with the Palestinians.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

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Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Armenian Currency Collapse

The collapse today of Armenia's dram may prove a blessing in disguise:
"In the space of a few hours on March 3, the dram went from 305 to the dollar to as low as 400 to the dollar, a loss of up to 30 percent of the currency's value...

"The Central Bank, which for years has relied upon remittances to fund its policy of supporting the dram against the dollar, decided it could no longer sustain that burden...

"Analysts say that the national currency has long been overvalued, drawing criticism from the IMF, among others, because it weakened prospects for developing a stronger export sector.

"Giragosian says the pressure for a strong dram came mostly from Armenia's powerful business cartels, which dominate the import of everything from gasoline via Georgia and natural gas via Russia, as well as many foods and all luxury goods...

"With the free float of the currency, Armenia now enters a period of economic change which, in the long-run, could help create a more balanced and productive economy."

In the short term, however, there could be limited internal unrest due to the sudden shock of the economic crisis, as well as more Russian leverage over the country's economy. The best economic news Armenians could get right now is a rapprochement with Turkey, and the government may take advantage of the crisis to move decisively in that direction.

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Monday, March 02, 2009

More TV Station Wars

Another Saudi religious leader is taking on the dynasty over the issue of TV programming:
"A Saudi religious scholar has issued an edict calling for the prosecution of a royal tycoon and another Saudi businessman, accusing the men of being as dangerous as drug dealers because the television channels they own broadcast movies.

"The edict issued by Yousuf Al Ahmad, a government employee, is unusual in that it publicly chastises two such prominent Saudi figures by name - Prince Al Waleed Bin Talal and Waleed Al Ebrahim, a brother-in-law of the late King Fahd and owner of the Dubai-based MBC Group media conglomerate."

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Sunday, March 01, 2009

Against Incitement

The IDF is looking to restrain its radical clerics:
"The Israel Defense Forces Personnel Directorate released a document limiting the military rabbinate's involvement in educational activities, after a Haaretz report exposed the right-wing political content mixed with religious material the rabbinate was distributing to soldiers...

"Last month the Defense Ministry criticized a controversial booklet the rabbinate distributed during Operation Cast Lead, which included articles by the respected and well-known rabbi Shlomo Aviner saying it was occasionally necessary to show cruelty during fighting and warning against giving up an inch of the Land of Israel."

"Right-wing political content" doesn't actually describe some of what was floating around:
"The IDF rabbinate, also quoting Rabbi Aviner, describes the appropriate code of conduct in the field: 'When you show mercy to a cruel enemy, you are being cruel to pure and honest soldiers. This is terribly immoral. These are not games at the amusement park where sportsmanship teaches one to make concessions. This is a war on murderers. 'A la guerre comme a la guerre.''

"This view is also echoed in publications signed by Rabbis Chen Halamish and Yuval Freund on Jewish consciousness. Freund argues that 'our enemies took advantage of the broad and merciful Israeli heart' and warns that 'we will show no mercy on the cruel.'

"In addition to the official publications, extreme right-wing groups managed to bring pamphlets with racist messages into IDF bases. One such flyer is attributed to 'the pupils of Rabbi Yitzhak Ginsburg' - the former rabbi at Joseph's Tomb and author of the article 'Baruch the Man,' which praises Baruch Goldstein, who massacred unarmed Palestinians in Hebron. It calls on 'soldiers of Israel to spare your lives and the lives of your friends and not to show concern for a population that surrounds us and harms us. We call on you ... to function according to the law 'kill the one who comes to kill you.' As for the population, it is not innocent ... We call on you to ignore any strange doctrines and orders that confuse the logical way of fighting the enemy.'"

The IDF can distance itself from this, and in so doing will represent the sense of self of the Israeli majority. However, the crazy radical nationalist strain of society from which it strings will continue to cling to the institutions of the Israeli state until it is confronted and defeated.

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