Quick Iran Takes
1.) Yesterday the livebloggers flagged a list of demands being circulated at the Tehran protest. This list should not be taken as a unifying agenda behind the protests, but rather an agenda which some, probably frequent anti-regime activists, wanted to get others to sign on to.
2.) I remain skeptical that there are Lebanese Hizbullah working with the government in Iran. As you can see from this handy chart, the regime has plenty of foot soldiers at its disposal. Arabic speech, which I saw mentioned on a couple of tweets, isn't that important, as there are Arabic-speaking Iranians, and perhaps Iraqis in Iran for IRGC training.
3.) Juan Cole is right about the potential for protests connected to the mourning cycle for those slain. Such protests formed an organizational backbone in the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
4.) The offer by the Council of Guardians for a recount, as well as the expulsion of foreign media, both fit the pattern I suggested yesterday, in which the government is not so much backing down as trying to control it's image while offering minor concessions they hope will sap the protests of some of their energy. In this light, however, the recount offer, while it will undoubtedly lead to nothing, is a step beyond simply offering to hear complaints, and may keep protesters emboldened.
(Crossposted to American Footprints)
2.) I remain skeptical that there are Lebanese Hizbullah working with the government in Iran. As you can see from this handy chart, the regime has plenty of foot soldiers at its disposal. Arabic speech, which I saw mentioned on a couple of tweets, isn't that important, as there are Arabic-speaking Iranians, and perhaps Iraqis in Iran for IRGC training.
3.) Juan Cole is right about the potential for protests connected to the mourning cycle for those slain. Such protests formed an organizational backbone in the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
4.) The offer by the Council of Guardians for a recount, as well as the expulsion of foreign media, both fit the pattern I suggested yesterday, in which the government is not so much backing down as trying to control it's image while offering minor concessions they hope will sap the protests of some of their energy. In this light, however, the recount offer, while it will undoubtedly lead to nothing, is a step beyond simply offering to hear complaints, and may keep protesters emboldened.
(Crossposted to American Footprints)
Labels: Iran
posted by Brian Ulrich at
6:58 PM
2 Comments:
I've gathered as much information as I could regarding the ongoing stand off with the regime through my dad who talks to multiple sources, including my cousin who has been attending many of these demonstrations. I made sure that any information extracted from the relatives and acquaintances are accurate as possible, hence the reason for barraging him not to come short when it comes to proper inquisition and acquisition of definite answer on certain matters.
From what I have gathered, these stories about Lebanese Hizbullah thugs taking to the streets to crack down on the protesters is largely unfounded. My cousin and several other old friends also had heard such accusations but the veracity of them could not be verified. Allow me to elaborate on the origin of such rumor.
Although such stories are not seminal, as in the past number of foreign elements in the process of training, indeed, have been used to subdue certain oppositions, there presence are usually exaggerated. Many of such accusations have been purported by the oppositions from the places outside of the country, either through organizational institutions or elderly expatriates (older generations).
The whole resentment of Arabs in the Persian culture is nothing new. Since the invasion of Persian empire by the Muslim Arabs, the contentious tension between the cultures has been palatable. Naturally such deep seated antagonism usually manifests itself in falsified and concocted rumors that might have some truth to them but generally have been blown out of proportion. In my own family, even though the snide comments hurled at Arabs are usually mixed with sarcasm and lacks any blatant intended racist tone, there is a inherit antipathy toward Arabs which cannot escape the outsiders.
Nonetheless, you might be persuaded by a sophistry of the fact that a foreign agent would have no sympathy for the Iranian people, therefore, is far more capable to inflect a horrendous atrocity to the race that he has no congenital and cultural ties to. Bottom line is that the regime has plenty of these thugs and hooligans to command and crush any rebellion at will. Trust me when I say they operate like a bunch of rabid dogs, just flailing away at anything that moves -- I've seen what these goons are capable of in action and frankly a 300 lb, well-built police officer doesn't look as intimidating as these pigs do. They are indeed a especial breed.
In 1996 when I was doing my mandatory military service in Iran, I came to know that one of my friends was serving in Sepah, IRGC , as a doctor, in a military compound in Garmsar, about 100 miles southeast of Tehran. He noticed that most of the military personnel there were non-Iranian, they were from many parts of the world including Chechnya, Bosnia, Kosovo, Libya, Lebanon, Afghanistan. They were being trained in assymetric warfare. Later on, we figured that these people were part of the Quds force, the extrateritorial branch of Sepah that now is blamed for Iran interference in Iraq. As a matter of fact Sepah has been doing this for years, they fought along with Talebani forces, in Iraqi Kurdestan, against rivaling Kurd factions, as well as in Bosnia, and Lebanon. These non-Iranian forces, according to my friend, are something of a pillaging mercenary type. They have seen war, and they are cruel and ruthless. It seems logical to me that at some point the regime, IRGC specifically, will resort to use these people. Once the Iranian military and law enforcement personnel, who are afterall Iranian, become averse to violent suppression and killing of their fellow Iranian, the regime will have no choice. As a matter of fact, something similar happened in 1979. The Shah's forces started to show reluctance in killing the fellow Iranians and eventually they gave up arms and people took over the military barracks around the country and the regime collapsed. I think the IRGC knows this part of the history very well and is intent in preventing it from happening again.
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