Afternoon Short Takes

This should not be taken as calling some sort of final result, but signs continue to suggest that momentum may be with the pro-Mousavi crowd. As shown by their PR moves and backtracking about "divine assessments," the government is on the defensive. Tehran Bureau is one source whose sources' sources claim some IRGC officers are not embracing the crackdown, while Nico Pitney reports some IRGC foot soldiers say they will refuse orders to fire on demonstrators. He also reports on a Parliamentary scuffle over the attacks on the Tehran University dorms and the adequacy of Larijani's "investigation."

If the regime is reacting, the initiative lies with the resistance, who today held a mourning protest that drew more people than Monday's event. Juan Cole ties the Shi'ite use of mourning protests to the Ashura commemorations for Imam Husayn. It's not directly relevant to what's happening in Iran right now, but I was in Bahrain for Ashura in early 2007, and posted about it here and here. Note that Mahatma Gandhi credited Imam Husayn: "I learned from Imam Husayn how to achieve victory while being oppressed."

UPDATE: Even Ahmadinejad is trying to make nice with the protesters.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)