The Syria Incursion
Israel attacking an arms shipment bound for Hizbullah sounds far more likely than any other possibility. You might say it simply fits the feel of the situation. Charles Levinson points out that both sides seem to be minimizing the incident. In addition to the evidence he cites, we've seen an Israeli pullback from the Golan Heights. The message from Israel seems to be clear: "We don't want a war, but we will act to protect our northern border." Syria, it appears, will not respond militarily, and is probably calling it an "ammo drop" because they don't want a war, either, and are not keen on admitting they let an attack pass in their territory. The most likely consequence for Israel is a growing wedge between it and Turkey.
(Crossposted to American Footprints)