Allawi's Outreach

Matthew Yglesias's remark that Iyad Allawi isn't really trying to weaken the insurgency by bringing in new elements isn't entirely correct. In both Falluja and Najaf, Allawi has used development aid as a lure to local notables who currently oppose him, which I have interpreted as essentially a bribe to make them the chief dispensers of patronage in their area, but dependent on his government for that source of influence. Earlier this week, I talked to someone who knows much more about these things than I do, and he felt my interpretation was spot on. However, he wasn't optimistic it would work as well as it has in Afghanistan because he said Iraq and Afghanistan don't have the same sort of political culture. I'm guessing the differences stem largely from the fact that Iraq has a highly educated urban class of professionals for whom issues like policy and ideology matter a great deal, whereas in Afghanistan you see more emphasis on decentralized personal ties regardless of ideology. In any case, it seems clear that Falluja is still far from under Allawi's control.