Tuesday, April 13, 2004

Najaf

I am unsure exactly what is happening in Najaf. The BBC reports that Sadr's forces have withdrawn, and Iraqi police are again patrolling the streets. This came about through diplomacy. I wonder, however: Are these Iraqi police loyal to Sadr, the coalition, or neither? The U.S. is building up forces outside the city, allegedly preparing to go in after Muqtada Sadr. Sadr claims he is willing to die to free Iraq, but I don't think we know if he really means that. At the same time, some sources suggest Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani may call for an uprising if the U.S. moves into Najaf. That would be disastrous, and I hope we realize that Sadr isn't worth it, especially if he's as marginalized as we claim.

As things stand, the situation in the south isn't really that bad, though as usual things are fluid. Non-Sadrist Shi'ites are taking the lead in negotiations, perhaps playing a good cop/bad cop routine to bring things to an end with minimal bloodshed. The U.S. has enough issues to settle in the ongoing Falluja crisis without unnecessarily provoking a broad-based Shi'ite resistance movement.

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