Iran's Fate

When all's said and done, this article about how and why the students and reformists failed to work together in the recent election crisis may contain the key explanation for the eventual fall of the Islamic Republic. For some time now, I and many other. have felt that Iran was the country to watch in terms of bringing democracy to the Middle East, and that over time the reformists backed by public opinion would weaken the power of the hardline institutions until they became more or less ceremonial. Like Jonathan Edelstein, however, I think these past few weeks were it, and change in the regime will now be revolution from without rather than reform from within. I've sort of wondered about this since at least the summer, when I read of the formation of regional versions of the Council of Guardians to supervise local governments, long a key reformist bastion. Had the reformists and the student protestors worked together, they might have been able to win meaningful concessions, as the reformists I believe were close to mainstream opinion and the students had the power to apply real pressures. As it stands now, all we can probably do is determine which forces are most likely to consolidate the anti-Khomeinist revolutionary forces and seek to strengthen their hand for the eventual confrontation.