A Few Notes

I have moved into my new apartment, and everything is good: Except the phone lines, which aren't working yet, and won't be until "sometime next week." That means in addition to no phone, I have no Internet access at home. So I still won't resume my normal blogging pace, despite all the things I have to talk about.

A couple takes, though:

This is not just an attack on "a Shi'ite mosque." It is an attack on the shrine of Imam Ali, burial place of the man whom Shi'ite believe was the successor to The Prophet as leader and guide for the Muslim community. Think of it as a Shi'ite version of the Vatican, which houses both the remains of St. Peter, believe to be the first pope, and the HQ of all world Catholicism. And the cleric killed as Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim, whom I have discussed before. This is probably the biggest blow yet to allied reconstruction efforts in Iraq, though depending on who gets the blame, it could backfire on whomever did it and put the Shi'ites more firmly in the American column politically, at least for a time. That's not definite, as we get blamed for security lapses.

There has also been heavy fighting in Zabul as American and Afghan national forces attack the Taliban in that province, both with ground forces and bombing raids. I haven't had time to figure out details.

OK...I'm going to go forage for food...

What Am I Doing?

Well, today I've been spending a lot of time on-line, though not for blogging. I'm working on my Fulbright application stuff, which has a lot of little annoying threads to pull together, like contacts in the region and everything. I have gotten advisor feedback on one of my draft essays, and my Arabic improvement remains steady, so the major albatrosses are under control.

In other news, I just finished reading Terry McGarry's Illumination, a stand-alone epic fantasy novel about a woman whose magelight is ailing seeking a renegade wordsmith. (That makes sense if you read the book.) The prose was good, the plot ok but a bit "convenient" in places if you know what I mean, and overall the author seemed to be adding a lot of philosophical depth I wasn't expecting, but that didn't interfere with the story.

Now that my grandmother's permanently living in a home, we've been working on selling her house to avoid property taxes and everything. I've also noticed some of my grandfather's old classical cassettes are now in our den, and one of them, some Bedrich Smetana pieces, has really caught my fancy. Given I'm also a big fan of Dvorak and Tchaikovsky, I seem to like Slavic composers. Or maybe its a period thing...who knows.

I guess that's all for now. Friday is moving day again, though I have the recently settled Jordan and Aisha to inspire me to whip an apartment into shape. Until I blog again!

Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani

Matthew Yglesias is watching for the emergence of an inspirational leader in Iraq. I think the closest thing we have right now is Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the most important figure in the Shi'ite clerical establishment in Najaf. Although he is a Shi'ite who favors a state governed by Islamic law, figures from across the political spectrum have gone to consult with him, and his attitude toward the provisional government is treated as important by people like Juan Cole, who have a much better sense of the ground situation than I do. True, not everyone agrees with him on social issues, but I'd venture that his current importance comes from his role as a symbol and an important voice no one can silence. Think Pope John Paul II in the fight against communism. That is the same sort of power Sistani wields in the fight to build a better Iraq, and why I think it would be smart for the U.S. to win him to our side.

Incidentally, a word about "Great Man" history: True, history is not just the record of heroic figures of the past, but nor is it the inevitable result of abstract historical forces. Leadership sometimes matters: That's why I bother to vote in elections. Ask Iraqis today if they think Gore getting another 1000 votes in Florida would have affected their history. These effects diminish over time as the "historical forces" of social and technological change are more sweeping: I doubt particular succession disputes in ancient Egypt have any impact today, but they did once.

More on Afghanistan

I just did a follow-up google news search on last week's Zabul story, and found this Sun Network story about a change in governorship. The outgoing governor claimed the Taliban insurgency news is exaggerated, but I somehow don't believe him. Even though it now seems the Karzai government retains control of the capital city, when I sit back and run everything through my mind I still think the Taliban or their sympathizers have more influence in Zabul than we do, and certainly have as much as they need to wage a guerrilla war. This dovetails with RFE-RL, which in their Weekly Afghanistan Report from last Thursday quoted the Stratfor reports as confirming Taliban control of most of the province.

I should also add here a disclaimer: News reports from most of Afghanistan do not come with 100% reliability guarantees. I post about what seems credible from reading a lot of them and having done some graduate coursework on Afghanistan, but in a sense this is like making projections on election night: Some may be retracted. And if that happens, it should not obscure the serious worsening violence in that country.

Hambali Captured

Just so people know I'm still around, I'll call attention to the capture of Hambali as a significant positive development in the War on Terror.

In other news, I just got back from my cousin's wedding. After the weddings of so many Catholic friends, I'd forgotten how short Baptist ones are. Today is also my mother's birthday. Perhaps I'll have more to say tomorrow.

Moving

In the future, I have decided to avoid moving unless I have someplace to move into as I'm moving out. Alas, the future is not yet here: My lease expires Thursday, and my new one starts August 29, so I'm off to Illinois to visit my parents and brother for a couple of weeks. My Internet access in Quincy is relatively spotty, both because the computer is located in my brother's room (he has a tendency to not want me in there 24 hours a day), and because it is through Quincy University, which can at times be unreliable. However, I've realized I'm a blogging addict, so expect at least some action...

Uhh...

I believe I now have a candidate for the strangest news story ever to come out of Israel. Female snails in Haifa have begun developing male sex organs.

There's really nothing sage I can say about that...

(Meant to type "safe," but found typo funny)

Taliban Open New Front

Radio Free Europe - Radio Liberty is now reporting the confirmation that the "neo-Taliban" have control of Zabul, basically quoting the same sources I did yesterday. In addition, they have announced that Muhammad Assim Muttaqi has taken command of a new northern front and will be directing attacks against warlords affiliated with the Karzai government, most notably Abd ar-Rahman Dostum. These are the people administration spokespeople like to characterize as remnants on the run. The Taliban are clearly back and confident, playing at least the nationalism card and benefitting from the Pashtuns' concerns with the former Northern Alliance and disaffection with the pace of reconstruction. This war isn't over, and at least on the surface, it looks like the people who attacked us on September 11 have the initiative.

Taliban Retake Province

According to the Indian newspaper The Hindu, the Afghan province of Zabul is now under Taliban control. Instapundit mentioned this a few days ago, but I didn't trust his sources; the confirmation now comes from Stratfor and while I haven't seen it yet on RFE-RL, major papers are starting to pick it up. From Zabul, the Taliban can threaten American positions around the old Taliban spiritual capital of Qandahar. Sify News, an Indian business site I'm not familiar with, claims this is a sign that Taliban plans to regroup while the U.S. was committed in Iraq may be working.

Jordanian Embassy Blast

Just to provide an update on the Jordanian embassy bombing, Abu Musab az-Zarqawi has emerged as the chief suspect, according to both American and Jordanian officials.

Central Asia

Matthew Yglesias has a lengthy post about the developing U.S. relationship with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and why it might not be such a good idea. It's definitely worth checking out. I feel like we're repeating in Central Asia some of the same sorts of mistakes we made in the Middle East: Supporting dictators whose foreign policy we like, allowing them to crush mainstream dissent, and ultimately pushing the population toward anti-American Islamism.

Saudi Money and Middle East Studies

Given all the coverage the classified 28 pages from the 9/11 report is getting, it makes sense we'll start hearing more about the corruption of Middle East Studies by Saudi funding. Martin Kramer once wrote about this here. The basic argument is that scholars of the Middle East avoid studying Saudi Arabia in the hopes that some Saudi royal will give money to your institution.

To be honest, there is a dearth of scholarship about Saudi Arabia, but I don't think that's the explanation. What is? In order to do serious research about a country, you have to go there armed with access and research clearance. It is very difficult to get into Saudi Arabia: When I was in Jordan, one guy wanted to go there for religious reasons, and had to jump through all sorts of hoops to get his visa. In addition, Saudi Arabia is not notoriously open to outside scrutiny. As a grad student with no agenda other than my own academic interests and career, I wouldn't want to gamble my future on a dissertation proposal that required Saudi approval before I could proceed.

Academic departments aren't like corporations. Especially once you have tenure, you can go research whatever you want, and I just can't picture department meetings where everyone agrees not to look to closely at Saudi Arabia, especially given the potential book sales and speaking fees you could get personally if you do a good job at it. Maybe there's something somewhere in all these charges, but I can think of many other explanations which make sense based on my experiences.

Musings

So another summer has all but ended...in a few days I will be off to visit family, and then back to the grind of the academic year. My brief time in this apartment is also coming to an end, and I've already moved some things into my office for storage until I get back.

I always hate this time of year, when people move on, even though new ones come in. I always hate the feeling, too, of time passing too quickly, and me not taking enough advantage of it. I meant to spend a lot more time outside than I did this summer, meant to try out several eateries I didn't, meant to go places I never got around to going, all crunched out by the day-to-day living which, such as it is, characterizes my life. I guess I should be used to that by now, but I'm not. Sometimes I feel utterly happy and content, as if nothing could be better than the simple, prosaic moments of my existence, while other times I feel like there must be so much more that could be in my life but simply isn't.

For some reason, the song in my head is from Les Miserables:

"Turning, turning, turning through the years.
Minutes into hours and the hours into years.
Nothing changes. Nothing ever can.
Round about the roundabout, and back where you began."

But that seems too pessimistic, somehow. So I will instead leave you with Eliot's "Little Gidding":

"The moment of the rose and the moment of the yew-tree
Are of equal duration. A people without history
Is not redeemed from time, for history is a pattern
Of timeless moments. So, while the light fails
On a winter's afternoon, in a secluded chapel
History is now and England."

Who Are the Sadriyun?

The Middle East Intelligence Bulletin has published the first solid, authoritative study of the Sadriyun I've seen since the fall of Saddam Hussein. Its worth reading in full, and delves into the movement's origins under the Ba'ath and subsequent emergence as the leading anti-American political force during the occupation.

According to the piece, written by Mahan Abedin, the movement's strength is in urban Shi'ite tribesmen, particularly in Sadr City (East Baghdad), and it is tribal connections which spread its influence to other areas. They are not taken ideologically seriously by the mainstream clerics and Najaf and Karbala. I also noticed they've been making a lot of ideological compromises in their quest for power, such as working with Iran (they were originally anti-Iranian). There was also the suggestion that Muqtada Sadr is mostly a figurehead, and that with no one clearly holding the reins, the U.S. might attempt a divide and conquer strategy among their followers.

I still think Muqtada Sadr does not pose a serious threat to the coalition occupation. His views are too extreme for most people to follow. However, he might serve the same function Eugene McCarthy served in the 1968 Democratic primaries in highlighting and consolidating a base of discontent that "the next anti-occupation leader" can step into. Hence, I would say the coalition shouldn't waste time trying to marginalize Sadr, and instead focus on rebuilding the country to ensure that such a new leader doesn't emerge.

Two Links

Yesterday I said that personal experience was more important to predicting the success of relationships that intellectual analysis. Ed Cohn has found evidence that I'm wrong, as a group of scientists claims to have discovered an equation predicting the fate of marriages. It is w(t+1)=a+r1*w(t)+ihw[h(t)].

Meanwhile, Joe Gratz has found a haiku version of this fall's political news. Apparently "bring 'em on" is the season-word for nuclear winter.

Israeli-Palestinian Affairs

According to Muhammad Dahlan, it will take 3 years and $250 million to rebuild the Palestinian police outposts destroyed by Israel during the Intifada. Allowing for the extent to which this is a negotiating position ("Scotty, I need the warp engines back on-line" - "It'll take around 6 hours, Captain!" - "I need them in four!"), that's still quite a bit of time. Until the PA does something to assure the Israeli street it is serious about peace, Sharon won't feel the need to take political risks on issues like the security fence and settlements unless Washington pressures him into it, and the important sign from the PA people are watching for is action against terrorist groups by rebuilt PA security. Meanwhile, in the absence of serious concessions or moves by either side, we have a nice period in which fewer people are dying, which is definitely a good thing.

Meanwhile, a few days ago Jonathan Edelstein blogged about the opening of a Western-style shopping mall in Ramallah. I found this interesting mostly because of all it said about the unspoken importance of economic links between Israel and not only the Palestinians, but the Arab world more generally. Driving across Israel and the West Bank combined is the same as driving from Madison to Milwaukee, except for the military checkpoints and fences and warnings about violence and stuff. Many Palestinians work in Israel, doing the low-wage labor most Israelis refuse to do. I strongly suspect Israel has one of the largest consumer economies in the region, so if the Arab states ever want a market for exports, there's one that's pretty convenient. I've been meaning to write a major post just about these economics for ages and ages, but it's not going to happen anytime soon. I did want to call it to people's attention, and suggest it as a possible realm for others to explore.

Iran-Contra II: Wrath of the Neocons

Gulf News today reports a meeting between Pentagon employees working for Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith and an Iranian arms dealer named Manucher Ghorbanifar, who was the middleman from the arms-for-hostages scandal under President Reagan. The context is that the Bush administration was involved in secret negotiations with Iran, a policy opposed by Pentagon hawks who want to depose the Iranian government. According to U.S. government officials, the was a deliberate ploy by the DoD to undercut those negotiations in the hopes that Iran would retaliate somehow and bring the rest of the administration in line with their views. The CIA, State Department, and White House then learned of it, and the meetings ceased quickly.

I think that when we have a President, and he decides on a foreign policy to pursue on important matters like fighting terrorists who threaten the U.S. and nuclear proliferation, then his administration should oppose it only in the political realm. When the Secretary of Defense deliberately tries to defeat American foreign policy objectives by trying to get a foreign country to stop negotiation with us, that is a bad thing. When he and his staff continue in office after doing it, that is an even worse thing, and highlights one of the main flaws I see in the Bush administration.

UPDATE: One of the people who met with Ghorbanifar was Harold Rhode. Josh Marshall thinks he might be important.

Welcome Peruvians!

Yesterday I got a hit from Peru, meaning I've now had traffic from every continent which has a permanent population. This was part of a day in which I got 89 total hits, the second-most ever. (The record, 198, is out of sight.) Of these, just over half were first-timers, at least since I replace my counter a little over a week ago, while the rest would be my "regulars" are repeat traffic during the day.

Meanwhile, I've been blogging more than I thought I would in recent days, but I haven't been getting as much work done as I wanted. That kind of has to change. Right now, I'm disappointed that The Matrix Reloaded still hasn't gotten to the budget theater here, which I was thinking of seeing this weekend. All well...if any of my friends are looking for something to do tonight, drop me a line.

Personality Test

Taking this personality test led me to result interpretations here and here. The results seemed to me rather accurate, except for the ESP part =) However, I wonder if people who know me would agree with the answers I put down - this test wouldn't catch any delusions I have about myself, and hence could always lead to an answer which pleases me.

I do find accurate the parts about appearing to be open, but really close to only a few, and surprising even long-time friends with parts of my personality. Last year I did something on Quiz Your Friends, and was surprised at how no one scored above 50%, except one guy who admits he kept guessing.

Crimes of Dissent

DAWN is reporting that the Afghan Supreme Court has upheld the death sentence on two journalists who criticized the country's leadership. This is something to keep in mind when you hear the Bush administration discussing their success in Afghanistan.

At the same time, Iranian Faqih Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i has asked the courts to show leniency to students arrested during the recent demonstrations. Most students have been released, but some remain in prison. This suggests that the Iranian government's strategy remains to disrupt the opposition rather than crush it.

Voting

Calpundit has some thoughts about deciding whom to vote for which I largely agree with. They key graft:

"Detailed policy proposals from candidates are close to useless, I think. After all, circumstances change, brilliant policies get turned to mush as they pass through Congress, and — let's be honest here — plenty of policy proposals from candidates are just sops to interest groups. It's hard to tell which ones are really priorities and which ones are just being served up pro forma ... As long as a candidate's heart is roughly in the right place, what I really want is someone who I trust to do the right thing when the unexpected happens, someone who demonstrates good judgment when the pressure is on, and someone with the political skills to push his agenda through Congress. "

This is pretty much the way I look at things. I despise the way Dick Gephardt is running his campaign and find some of his policy proposals simply amusing, but consider him a strong possibility to get my vote because I trust him on the above reasons. By the same token, Howard Dean, another possibility, talks a much better line, but I'm still judging what I think of him, a process which might continue right up until February.

This is, incidentally, an even bigger deal to me in Presidential elections, where you have to remember that the area Presidents influence most strongly is foreign policy. And foreign policy is a field which I don't think you can boil down to position papers and general political philosophy: Personal touch, experience, and execution are far more important. If President Bush had planned out a careful aftermath to the Iraq war or handled the diplomacy differently, our chances for succeeding in rebuilding Iraq would be much better, while if a President Dean had not attacked Iraq, it still could have eventually become a crisis depending on what Iraq policy he did follow and how effective he was at following it.

As I've said before, the broad question of foreign policy is in my book the major mark against Dean right now. Conventional wisdom holds that people elect governors to the White House, and judging by the constant first-term learning process, I'm not sure it's that good an idea. Jimmy Carter had the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Iranian Revolution. Reagan had the Lebanon fiasco, which could have been avoided with a more nuanced understanding of the situation there. Clinton had the Blackhawk Down affair and non-policies in Bosnia and Rwanda. President Bush's administration has produced such wonders as invading a large Middle Eastern country and alienating many allies without bothering to figure out what would happen next. All of these Presidents also had successes, but when the U.S. is by far the most powerful nation in the world, that's expected.

Just some thoughts...

Dating

Many of the blogs I read often discuss the topic of dating, most recently in Patrick Belton's lunchtime question to Will Baude: "Has the culture of dating really disappeared from college campuses or is this a myth caused by all the usual psychological fallacies?" The theory goes that young people today are simply not interested in dating, and that the group has replaced the couple as the primary unit of social intercourse. This Weekly Standard article linked to a couple of weeks ago by Daniel Drezner gives a fairly mainstream rundown: "One night at dinner a student from the South mentioned that at her state university, where some of her friends go, they still have date nights on Friday nights. The men ask the women out and they go as couples. The other students at the dinner table were amazed. For many young people these days, the only time they've ever gone out on a formal date was their high school senior prom. You might as well have told them that in some parts of the country there are knights on horseback jousting with lances." Susan Ferrari describes the different situation at the University of Chicago.

Were I still at QU, I would have definitely agreed with Susan's depiction. At QU, people would not "date" someone except in the expectation that it would become a serious pre-marital relationship. (I hate saying just "serious," which I don't think differentiates pre-marital from serial monogamy well enough.) Here at UW, however, things seem much more relaxed, at least in the circles in which I run, and while many couples do wind up marrying, there's also a strong undercurrent that marrying is something usually done in the mid-to-late-20's. (Perhaps it's accurate to say that at UW, the QU dating mindset coexists with a somewhat more traditional one.)

I really have nothing on which to base this, having yet to master the fine art of romance, but if I might play the role of anthropologist, the second mentality seems healthier, and the people who follow it generally seem happier. Since I don't like posting about my own life, I probably shouldn't give specific examples by posting about other people's, but my impression is that when you keep worrying about whether he or she is your ultimate life partner and what might happen five or six years down the road, you're not enjoying the person you're with now and all they have to offer. Admittedly, though, this implicitly assumes that non-serious dating has value, which appears to be the topic under dispute. Still, my observation has been that sound relationship judgement benefits from experience more than intellectual analysis. The people who were most cautious about entering relationships fared no better than those who entered with less thought. The people who had relationships lasting all four years of college and eventually ending in marriage were people who had dated a fair amount in high shool. The self-confidence to follow what you want was also a factor: In one case the boyfriend/husband was a long-time friend whom the girl didn't start dating until late their senior year of high school, even though they were in college in different states. In another a girl met a guy at an amusement park, he proceeded to make a pass at her over e-mail, and while she didn't know him except for their park encounter, she decided she liked something about him, gave him a chance, started dating him a few weeks later, and today they are happily married with two cats.

I guess for my part I'd examine any opportunities that came along...dating experience isn't on my resume, but I think I've acquired enough life experiences to not completely ruin my life (or someone else's). There are many ways to experience romance, and I haven't really developed a preference. But that is for another time...I recently took a quiz which indicated I would find myself compatible with one in every 14,218 women, and so the odds require patience =)

Jordanian Embassy Bombing

I've been waiting for more details to emerge about the Jordanian Embassy bombing in Baghdad, but none really have. I'd been expecting some form of terrorist attack for awhile, but was a little surprised by the target. In retrospect, I no longer am: Jordan was an Arab country which supported the U.S. against Saddam, and this was pretty clearly a strike against what either a Muslim fundamentalist or Arab nationalist would see as a collaborating government. Unfortunately, this was more complex that just a grenade attack or random shooting, and probably shows that some of the resistance is becoming more organized.
UPDATE: According to this New York Times article, after the blast, Iraqis stormed the building angry over Jordan's decision to grant asylum to Saddam Hussein's daughters, fueling speculation that the bombing might have been revenge for that. The embassy had received a bomb threat, the contents of which remains unreported. All of this would, of course, put a new spin on things.

Indonesian Terrorism

Juan Cole leads today with an explanation of what al-Qaeda is doing in Indonesia. The JI terrorist group there is not actually part of al-Qaeda, but al-Qaeda is supporting their operations through connections similar to what I described here. Their eventual goal is to create an Islamic state in Southeast Asia, and they're taking advantage of Indonesia's complex internal composition and questionable economic stability to begin their campaign there. In his trial, one of the Bali bombing people said he felt that action was a success because it helped drive away "the corrupting influence of foreign tourists." Incidentally, Indonesian terror groups seem not to place much emphasis on the separatist campaign in Aceh, for reasons an Indonesianist could probably understand better than I.

Whiplash

California politics seem more interesting than those in Wisconsin or Illinois.

UPDATE: New Link

Surfing the Net

Check out the official web site of Iraq's Coalition Provisional Authority.

The Great Game: Enter India

In yesterday's RFE-RL Daily Afghan Report, read courtesy of eurasia-geopolitics@yahoogroups.com, there was a blurb that Pakistan now accuses India of fostering border conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan out of its consulates in Jalalabad and Qandahar. Whether the accusations are credible I don't know, but the situation there remains a whole lot more complex than just hunting down Taliban-al-Qaeda "remnants" while the Karzai government triumphantly builds a stable democracy.

Kosovo and Palestine

IWPR has a report on a wave of terroristic violence which has recently swept through Kosovo. No group has claimed responsibility for the attacks, which are almost certainly a response to the start of war crimes trials for former members of the Kosovo Liberation Army. I haven't been paying much attention to the Balkans lately, but apparently there has been a lot of outcry that the government, under its UN sponsors, is "'criminalizing' the struggle against Serb rule."

What happens in Kosovo is certainly important in its own right, but when I read this I couldn't help but think of the far more inflamed situation in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Don't hold your breath waiting for the PA to put the top terrorist leaders on trial, unless it somehow becomes a totalitarian police state or something. Mainly from personal experience, I've gotten the strong impression that while Palestinians in general disapprove of terrorism, they don't see why they should act to defend Israelis without getting anything in return: Ending the occupation is a far more important goal to them than ensuring Israeli security. And this is why while an end to violence is by definition crucial to the peace process, I don't think thoroughly cracking down on terrorist networks is feasible as the very first step along the road to peace. I feel like an insensitive jerk saying this, but Israel needs to find some other concession as the PA's great sign of seriousness.

The Antisocial Test

take the antisocial test.


and go to mewing.net. because laura's feeling social.

Burqa Band

Courtesy of al-Muhajabah, I find this (Pakistan) Daily Times story about a new all-female Afghan rock group called "Burqa Band." Sample lyrics:

"You give me all your love, you give me all your kisses,
and then you touch my burqa, and don't know who it is..."

Read the whole article.

Mood

I feel happy and perky and alive!!!!!

(dances while working on dissertation)

My Life

So...

Work today has come crashing to a halt. One of our speakers announced she would be in Austria this fall instead of Rhode Island, which is not precisely what we'd budgeted for. So I wait on people to get back to me on whether we need to make a change.

Meanwhile, I bleed. My razorblades had gotten somewhat old, as I kept forgetting to buy new ones after my grocery store closed and I started going to a place where they were out of my normal shopping path. However, I finally snagged some last week, of a brand that seems, err, harsh. I've heard of cutting yourself shaving, before, but I believe I have sliced myself to ribbons. Yeesh...

And by the way, I'm really getting into the Kansas City Royals. Go, team, go!!!

Iran's Downward Slide

According to the new RFE-RL Iran Report, that nation is expanding the basiji militia which is the hardline-associated group responsible for suppressing unrest such as June's student protest movement. This is announced just a week after plans to create regional Councils of Guardians, and together these developments point strongly toward a tilt in favor of the most hard-line anti-democratic elements in Iran's government. I hope President Khatami and the Reformists will recognize this for the danger it is and respond appropriately.

The Reins of Palestinian Terrorism

For many moons now, I have been skeptical of the idea that Yasser Arafat is really behind terror attacks against Israelis. I find Arafat a corrupt strongman and highly ineffective leader, but can't firmly tie him into terrorism, despite the constant refrain "Yasser Arafat's Fatah movement" (which is also Abu Mazen's Fatah movement, actually). What's more, I have cited Israeli intelligence reports indicating that terrorist groups are taking their orders from the IRG through Hizbullah intermediaries.

So just to add another report supporting this idea, here is today's Haaretz. The key graft, citing Israeli officials discussing who is responsible for cease-fire violation:

"The armed militants who receive orders from Iran are members of local cells belonging to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, associated with PA Chairman Yasser Arafat's Fatah party, but they do not necessarily adhere to orders from the party's political leadership, and are more dependent on money and orders coming from Iran and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah organization, which is based in Lebanon."

This is why I remain skeptical that all Israel's actions against the PA really accomplished anything other than weakening the administration everyone wants to crack down on terrorism.

Turkish Democracy (and Daniel Pipes)

As part of their bid to join the EU, Turkey has passed reforms to strengthen their democratic institutions. The most important curtail the power of the military-dominated National Security Council to influence government policy, provide for more freedom of expression, and place the military budget under Parliament's supervision. If successful, this could be a landmark in Turkey's democratic development.

As Jonathan Edelstein has discovered, Daniel Pipes is opposed to all of this. This is of course the same Pipes who has previously suggested making the U.S. the state sponsor of the Mujahadeen-e Khalq terrorist organization and whom President Bush has nominated to the U.S. Institute of Peace, though the relevant Senate committee had other ideas.

Cambridge History of Judaism

During the recent discussions of early Islamic history, some people asked about things to read to learn about the origins of monotheistic religions in general. That's a tall order, especially since it's not really what I work on, and even on Islam I need to check a book in my office to be sure I get it right.

One work I can recommend, though, and that should help out on the Judaism front: The Cambridge History of Judaism. This is a multi-volume project still being published - so far the first three are out which go up through the Roman Empire. They are fairly comprehensive - the Roman volume has over 1000 pages, but if you really want to learn the current state of research, this is the place to go. They are are little different from most Cambridge histories, though, in that their chapters are more topical than chronological. Hence, instead of something like "The Age of Simon Bar Kokhba" you have stuff like "Rabbis in the Second Century." I'll also voice my major disappointment: It starts with the Persian period, when I happen to be a fan of the kingdom period, when you had all the struggling over the pre-eminence or acceptability of different sanctuaries in conjunction to the politics of Israel and later Judah. But you can still get some of that from Britannica's entry on History of Judaism.

Sharon Said It, Not Me

At a meeting of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Ariel Sharon was asked to respond to accusations that Israel gave the Palestinians everything and got nothing in return. His reponse:

"It's possible to say that so far we haven't given them anything."

I don't want this to become a propaganda blog, so I will add that this was a sound bite without context. Still, it does support some of what I've said before, most recently here. And incidentally the AMB/ceasefire/Palestinian arrest story seems to change hourly. I'll try to update when it's stabilized.

Wausau

Well, I'm back. Wisconsin is definitely a beautiful state, and gets better as you go further north. Judging from the parts I passed through, Wausau itself is one of the nicer cities its size I've seen. I crossed what seemed to be two small rivers - one featuring a low dam that created the effect of a rather cool waterfall, the other dotted with small grassy "islands" which either indicated it is really shallow or perhaps has some sort of old levy underneath it. The city also had more variety than Quincy...just passing in I saw a Japanese place, which Quincy most certainly does not have, and the business district in general looked cultured and inviting when viewed by the standards of the urban milieu of the midwestern U.S.

The gathering was also cool, and I met a lot of interesting people there, as well as getting to see Joe, whom I played quiz bowl with for three years. Jordan's mother was the driving personality behind the evening - she had apparently spent days preparing an array of sub sandwiches, dips, cheeses, and the like, all of which were wolfed down by the assembled crowd with plenty to spare. (She actually seems to have a lot of artistic energy and talent - the entryway featured a painting she did herself, there was a fairly cool garden behind the house, and she's now playing with bonzai trees.) All in all, it was a fun way to spend the day, even if I was drawn into staying far longer than I meant to.

Blogging Forecast

If I post at all tomorrow, it will be very late in the evening, as I'm driving up to Wausau for diverse acts of socialization and the ingestion of food prepared at hands other than my own. Activity will probably be light throughout the week as I work on some things that need to be done before the academic year starts, write the first draft of my Fulbright essays, and get an encyclopedia entry on the Turks during the Crusades out of my hair. Please note that this forecast is subject to change without notice as developments warrant.

Palestinian Crisis

Yesterday I suggested that Mahmud Abbas was basicly trying to create a sort of Pan-Palestinian front until enough momentum had been built toward peace and the PA had gained enough strength that the rejectionists could be safely confronted and defeated. If that is the case, today there is a major crisis in that front. It began with the arrest of a number of militants from the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades by PA security and Yasser Arafat's personal guards. Now at least some leaders in the AMB have called an end to the ceasefire with Israel calling the Palestinian authorities "collaborators. Of course despite the subject line it could be argued that this is more a crisis for Israelis, who are now subject to being killed by AMB terrorists. Whatever the case, the fate of the peace process and Israel's long-term security ultimately depends on a PA which can control their own territory, of which this is an important and hopefully not premature test.

Sinbad the (Greek?!?!?!) Sailor

Al-Muhajabah posts about the Dreamworks version of Sinbad the Sailor in which he is no longer an Arab, but a Greek. Written by Star Trek: Nemesis and Gladiator scribe John Logan, the story is no longer about a hard-working Arab merchant sailing the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean, but a Greek adventurer in the Mediterranean. All references to Arab culture have been systematically replaced with Greek mythology. I don't follow entertainment news that closely, and so had missed that little detail of production.

To me, this is kind of frustrating: I've been peddling medieval Arabic legend and culture to people for years, and now its most recognizable hero has been Hellenized. This also removes an excuse to talk about my dissertation: Sinbad was traditionally an Arab sailor of the tribe of Azd, and today there is a street named for him in the Omani city of Suhar, which in the 10th century was the largest on the Persian Gulf. I also find it simply stupid. The success of films like The Lord of the Rings shows that an audience can handle a completely new world, and an Arab Sinbad movie would just have to explain basics like "caliph" before launching into the action without the need for epic backstory and everything.

Career Plans

I've figured out what I want to be in life. A wizard, in the high epic fantasy sense. I could go around casting magic spells while sternly advising kings and presidents as to what they must do to defeat the gathering forces of evil.

It would be fun. Stressful, at times, but always rewarding.

Issues in the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict

As followers of events will know, most of the recent news from the Israeli/Palestinian front has been bad. The worst was probably Israel's decision to build 22 new housing units in the Gaza Strip. As was widely publicized, Israel did remove some illegal settlements soon after approval of the "Road Map," but since then about the same number of new ones has been built. And now the government is authorizing more settlement.

This comes right after Israel announced they would continue to build the "Security Fence" according to present plans. The problem with this isn't Israel deciding to have a strongly fortified border. They probably need one. However, this fence does not follow the Israeli border. It cuts through the Occupied Territories and in some cases even separates Palestinians from their own land. Many Palestinians see it as a land grab, arguing that Israel will insist on keeping all the area the fence encloses. I don't know if that's true or not - some in Israel probably hope it is, but my telepathy isn't that good. What this does say to the Palestinians, however, is that their current policy is largely to slow the rate at which Palestinian land is being Israelized. This is why Palestinian leaders continue to say Israel is not taking serious steps toward peace. Personally, I think it mostly shows that Israelis do not yet have faith in the peace process, and so will not take serious steps to reduce their negotiating position.

The Palestinians, of course, have their own issues. The most important is terrorism. The PA has not moved to dismantle the terrorist organizations, though the claim that they are too weak to do so is credible. Closely linked to the issue of terrorism, however, is incitement in the state media and education system. I've heard mixed reports about this, but if it is still going on, it needs to stop, and the fact it probably hasn't is the main reason I'm not laying the blame for the current impasse solely on Israel. The Palestinian negotiating position is not strong, because the peace process continuing depends on the U.S., and to the U.S. the main issue is terrorism, not settlements. Back in June, Anthony DeJesus argued that an independent Palestinian government would include former terrorists, just like the early government of Israel did. However, I think the geopolitical situation has changed a lot since then, and terrorism is now too big an issue to be overlooked. Abu Mazen may not realize this: His rhetoric has been about a united Palestinian position, ground similar to what Ben Gurion used in the Altalina incident. His great challenge, however, is not to unite all the factions, which many Israelis will find unacceptable. He needs to co-opt and condemn the rejectionists. In order to prevent his own negotiating position from being weakened, he needs to find some sort of alternative Intifada that will win sympathy rather than condemnation, like general strikes of Palestinian workers in Israel, or something.

The peace process may work, or it may not. But I'll be a lot more of a believer once the two sides stop playing business as usual. If people can't agree to stop taking their negotiating partners' land or broadcasting propaganda against them on state-run TV, they're a long way from sharing the Haram ash-Sharif.

James Traficant

Unhappy with the Democratic Presidential field? Try James Traficant. It will go well with Gary Condit's potential run for California governor.

Comments

Soon I'm going to switch the comments over to Haloscan. I'm tired of messing around with these.

Note to Bin Gregory: You can find the Schacht thesis in books by Joseph Schacht. I believe it was based off the content of the hadith themselves, and is considered credible.