Afghan Ethnic Politics

Some may remember that when the current Afghan administration was set up, the powers-that-be picked Hamid Karzai to lead Afghanistan partly becase he was a Pashtun, Afghan's majority community and the Taliban's base of support. Now, Radio Free Europe - Radio Liberty keeps going back and forth on whether the Karzai administration is reaching/has reached an agreement with former Taliban Foreign Minister Mawlawi Wakil Ahmad Muttawakil. At the same time, Pak Tribune is reporting on efforts made by Tajiks such as those in the Northern Alliance to counter their declining influence in Kabul. The Tajiks have historically been the most influential group in Afghan national politics, and Karzai's policies to reach out to the Pashtuns have begun chipping away at that influence.

What's the upshot of all this? Just as I pointed out over the summer that issues between Iran, Pakistan, and India had begun to seriously muddy the landscape of Afghan politics, so now Afghan's ethnic mix is coming to the fore as a key element shaping people's behavior and opinions. The worst case scenario is a resumption of widespread civil war following the 2004 elections if both underlying political issues and the ambitious warlords who manipulate them are not somehow contained.

DISCLAIMER: I hate the term "ethnic" here, which calls to mind an European cultural situation that doesn't apply. But I couldn't think of anything better.

UPDATE: For an well-written on-the-ground description of Kabul, try this post on Oxblog. I love this stuff.