Madawi al-Rasheed describes transformation in the nature of Saudi Arabia's polity, with
entrenched princes around a figurehead king:
Given the proliferation of royal positions and power holders, it is time
to think of Saudi Arabia as a kingdom with multiple heads or several
fiefdoms. In this context, the kingdom is no longer a centralized
absolute monarchy as it used to be under King Faisal (1964-1975), but a
cluster of clans under an honorary king, and over which Prince Muqrin
will preside in due course. He will have to acknowledge the interest of
each one of these clans and keep balancing the various factions in ways
that do not undermine their privileges, positions and wealth. He can
only do that by creating more positions that will absorb the growing
number of princes within each clan. He will also have to be seen as a
neutral arbiter between the various competing factions while not
undermining their inherited control over key ministries and government
arms.
The pluralism that is currently unfolding among those in power is a
mixed blessing. Internally, Saudis are trying to navigate this change
and hope to place themselves in a patron-client relationship with at
least one clan. They have been denied any say
in the way their government is run, and the only available option is to
become part of a princely circle of power. If one prince proves to be
remote and uninterested, they may seek another, one more in need of
developing his own clients to boost his popularity. The multiple
princely actors within the state offer opportunities for a population denied any political representation or pressure groups...
The multiple Saudi clans that are in control of the government and Saudi
resources offer real opportunities for their members, but undermine the
evolution of the kingdom into a state with institutions that are
durable beyond the life of the prince. The king was expected to regulate
the transfer of power to the second generation, but he can only deliver
an honorary future king to rule over flourishing multiple centers of
power, each of which thinks it has a divine right to monopolize the top
position. For the moment, the multiple clans will continue to coexist
because no one wants to rock the boat, given that the stakes are so
high. The alternative to coexistence is internal strife that will no
doubt undermine the future of the kingdom.
This transformation strikes me as already well underway. In fact, I'd say that the fact this decentralized system is already entrenched is why the family is keeping the throne in the same family for as long as possible. Also, although Saudi Arabia far away from this, I'd argue that it makes a peaceful democratization path impossible to envision for the simple reason that so many princes who have fiefdoms would have to be on board with it.
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