Monday, September 26, 2011

Demography and the Jewish State

Matthew Yglesias argues that population statistics will not compel Israel to adopt any particular policy toward the Palestinians. Here's what he foresees:
"The Israeli government will disavow any claim to sovereignty over the Gaza Strip. They’ll count on public opinion in Egypt to ensure some level of integration across the Gaza-Egypt land border, and then they’ll wash their hands of the whole thing. Nobody’s going to give West Bank Palestinians the vote (if anything, the trends in Israeli politics point toward diminished civil rights for the Palestinians who already have Israeli citizenship) but this will solve the Jewish majority problem. That, however, is just a reminder that there really is no Jewish majority problem. The problem is that the Israeli government wants to exercise sovereignty over the West Bank without granting citizenship to its Arab residents."

The idea of Palestinian cantonments in the West Bank can also be seen as an avenue by which Israel can functionally be a Jewish state while still retaining control of the Occupied Territories. Along these general lines, though, I remember that when I lived in Jerusalem from 2006-2008, I often heard assertions that the demographic argument was cooked up by Palestinians and leftists based on false premises to weaken Israeli resolve, and this was apparently a common argument in the right-wing nationalist media. I doubt this line of thinking has gone away in the past three years, and even though Prime Minister Netanyahu presumably understands the situation, a lot of Israeli public opinion will clearly never buy demography-based arguments.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

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Sunday, September 25, 2011

Women in the Shura

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah has announced that women will start having a formal voice in Saudi Arabia's government:
"Saudi King Abdullah announced Sunday that the nation's women will gain the right to vote and run as candidates in local elections to be held in 2015 in a major advancement for the rights of women in the deeply conservative Muslim kingdom.

"In an annual speech before his advisory assembly, or Shura Council, the Saudi monarch said he ordered the step after consulting with the nation's top religious clerics, whose advice carries great weight in the kingdom...

"Abdullah said the changes announced Sunday would also allow women to be appointed to the Shura Council, the advisory body selected by the king that is currently all-male.

"The council, established in 1993, offers opinions on general policies in the kingdom and debates economic and social development plans and agreements signed between the kingdom and other nations."

I wonder how those discussions between the king and the religious establishment went? That this is going through suggests that the king has the upper hand in the ongoing struggle between the two poles of Saudi Arabian society. Although the shura council is powerless and local government in the kingdom isn't all it's cracked up to be, this remains an important step forward, one which might enable women to start raising issues like the driving ban in high circles.

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Saturday, September 24, 2011

Yachimovich and Labor Revitalization

Shelly Yachimovich is the new leader of Israel's Labor Party:
"Shelly Yachimovich, 51, a former journalist and a Labor member of Parliament since 2006, defeated Amir Peretz, a former leader of the center-left Labor Party and a former union leader, in a runoff ballot on Wednesday by 54 percent to 45 percent. Ms. Yachimovich is the seventh leader of Labor in a decade...

"Ms. Yachimovich, a staunch social democrat who has long campaigned against privatization and for socioeconomic change, captured the public mood. But few believed that her victory would be enough to propel Labor back to power."

The fact that the only security experience between the top two candidates for Labor leadership is Amir Peretz's tragicomic tenure as defense minister shows just how far the once-hegemonic party has fallen in the decade since the last Labor-led government fell in a landslide election to Ariel Sharon's Likud. I think, however, that especially in an environment of widespread social protest over economic conditions, Yachimovich could be the leader to revitalize them. Consider this endorsement:
"The summer of 2011 was also the summer of the Labor Party. The divorce from former Labor chairman Ehud Barak was good for Labor. The social agenda was also good for Labor. So was the late awakening by opposition leader MK Tzipi Livni. The party that was considered dead has been resurrected. It held a membership drive, renewed its institutions and conducted an impressive internal election campaign. It conjured up five worthy candidates to lead it. The party brought itself to a point in which it can be a counterweight to Kadima and a long term alternative to Likud. Shelly Yachimovich has many drawbacks, but only she can realize this potential. Only she can bring home hundreds of thousands who have abandoned Labor. Only she can bring hundreds of thousands of young people to Labor."

The phrasing "a counterweight to Kadima and a long term alternative to Likud" shows that even supporters recognize that Yachimovich is probably not a viable prime minister in security-conscious Israel, but would mostly likely serve in a coalition with Kadima, at which point some leaders could augment their foreign policy chops for a return to the top position after that. Kadima leader Tzipi Livni appears to recognize her own opening in calling Labor Kadima's "natural partner for a Zionist path to a future of peace and fair society," essentially co-opting a popular Labor social message into an image of what a Kadima-led government might look like.

Labor is in the dumps now, and outside of Israel, no one has heard of Shelly Yachimovich. However, parties have come back from the dumps before.

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Friday, September 23, 2011

Saleh Returns

Ali Abdullah Saleh has returned to Yemen:
"President Ali Abdullah Saleh returned Friday to the Yemeni capital after more than three months of medical treatment in Saudi Arabia in a surprise move that could further enflame violence between forces loyal to him and his opponents.

"Saleh left Yemen for Saudi Arabia in June after he was seriously injured in an attack on his presidential compound in the capital Sanaa. During his absence, the country further slipped into chaos after the protests that erupted in February demanding an end to his 33-year old rule.

"But the violence took a serious turn this week after a regionally-sponsored, U.S.-backed deal to transfer power hit a new snag.

"Saleh had repeatedly refused to sign the deal, and has recently delegated his deputy to restart negotiations with opponents on the deal. It was considered another stalling tactic by Saleh that was followed by a violent crackdown on protesters and the most violent bout of fighting between Saleh loyalists and his armed opponents.

"Sanaa has been gripped by street battles and exchanges of shelling between the elite Republican Guards, led by Saleh's son, and tribesmen opposing Saleh as well as military units who had defected."

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Libya's Demonstration Effect: Armed Revolt Works

Nir Rosen spends several weeks in Syria and finds a growing belief in the need to take up arms among the opposition:
"Abu Omar was a senior coordinator in the country's six-month-old uprising and was involved in opposition activities since 2007. He lamented that to date, the revolution had only succeeded in costing the lives of three thousand people.

"'After Libya, many people said it was a mistake to have a peaceful revolution and if they had done it like the Libyans they would be free by now,' he said.

"As I spent more time in Syria, I could see a clear theme developing in the discourse of the opposition: A call for an organised armed response to the government crackdown, mainly from the opposition within Syria. Demonstrators had hoped the holy month of Ramadan would be the turning point in their revolution, but as it came to an end - six months into the Syrian uprising - many realised the regime was too powerful to be overthrown peacefully.

"Previously, on August 25, I met with a senior opposition leader in Damascus' large suburb of Harasta, an anti-regime stronghold. The government had cracked down harshly on demonstrations there, though the armed opposition had been able to kill many members of the security forces.

"'In the end we cannot be free without weapons,' the leader said. 'It's necessary, but not by the people, by the army; we need defections.'

"A few days later, on August 28, I attended an anti-regime demonstration in the Bab Assiba neighbourhood of Homs. Demonstrators there were calling for a no-fly zone, much like the one imposed over Libya. Many of them hoped for international intervention."

Rosen goes on to argue that opposition cannot simplistically adopt the Libya model to change their regime. Part of the problem is a simple lack of weapons and training, which leaves them hoping for more significant military defections. He also doesn't see how Syria's geography would allow for the creation of a resistance enclave which could be protected from the air. The second point seems debatable, but I definitely don't see Assad's rule collapsing unless the resistance is able to win more support, including broad support in at least some regions. I'll be looking in further dispatches to see whether Rosen sees that as possible.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

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Monday, September 19, 2011

Tales of Manas

Dina Tokbaeva reports on Kyrgyzstan's public commemorations of epic hero Manas:
"Unveiled on August 31 this year to mark the 20th anniversary of Kyrgyzstan independence, the nine metres-long bronze figure on horseback is called 'Manas the Magnanimous'.

"Manas, the central figure in a long epic poem of the same name, is regarded as a symbol of unity for bringing the various Kyrgyz tribes together in times of danger...

"The bronze horseman replaces a statue called 'Erkindik' – Liberty – a winged female figure on top of a globe, holding aloft a 'tunduk', the circular frame that forms the top of a traditional Kyrgyz yurt.

"Originally built in 1999 to celebrate independence from the Soviet Union, the winged figure moved into the square only five years ago to replace Vladimir Lenin, who had survived there until 2003...

"The idea of demolishing the statue came from a group of historians and politicians who based their argument around a legend that a woman carrying a 'tunduk' is an ill omen. They said the turbulent events of recent years – mass unrest that caused regime change in 2005 and 2010, and the ethnic violence last summer that left more than 400 dead – showed the statue must come down.

"As an alternative, the idea of a Manas statue came up. The authorities lent their weight to the campaign and appealed for public donations.

"It is in fact only the latest in a long list of monuments and places named after Manas – the latter including the country’s main airport. Schools in Kyrgyzstan are to start teaching the Manas epic as a separate subject."

Tokbaeva is cynical about the statue change, noting that it won't help solve Kyrgyzztan's problems. My interest is in the commemoration of the past in new nations, and the use of history, literature, and folklore to forge a new identity. You can read basics about the Epic of Manas here, and in more depth here.

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Violence in Yemen

Yemen's regime, which many hoped would collapse when President Ali Abdullah Saleh went to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment, has begun a violent crackdown on protestors, to which opposition military forces have responded:
"Violence convulsed the streets of Yemen’s capital for a second day on Monday as government security forces battled soldiers who have joined antigovernment protesters in their movement to force President Ali Abdullah Saleh to resign. It was the worst violence since March in Yemen, the Arab world’s most impoverished country and a haven for Islamic militants.

"Medical officials in the capital said at least 28 people were killed on Monday, pushing the death toll from two days of fighting in Sana, the capital, to more than 50 — most of them unarmed protesters — and raising fears here that the escalation of deadly mayhem is hurtling Yemen toward a civil war...

"After sporadic gunfire overnight, fighting intensified as rocket-propelled grenades fell near the protesters, and forces loyal to Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsin al-Ahmar, who has aligned himself with the protesters, fired artillery at positions held by government forces nearby. At least one residential building near the protest was in flames. Later Monday, witnesses said snipers were firing at protesters from rooftops.

"Soldiers from the First Armored Division, commanded by General Ahmar, had taken over the area Sunday evening after clashing with security forces. Protesters set up tents in the major intersection, improbably known as Kentucky Square because of a restaurant resembling a KFC outlet that used to be there. The intersection has become the new frontline of fighting."

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

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Saturday, September 17, 2011

Tunisia's Suicide Option

Several disappointed job seekers tried to commit suicide in southern Tunisia:
"Five Tunisians have tried to hang themselves after failing a competition to become teachers in the impoverished western Kasserine region, witnesses and media reports said.

"The men climbed an improvised scaffold outside a branch of the education ministry and tied rope nooses around their necks, witness Rachid Jabbari told the AFP news agency.

"One of the men, aged 43 - the age limit for entering Tunisian civil service - sustained a head wound before the group were rescued by a crowd of bystanders on Friday. They were taken to hospital, where the governor of Kasserine visited them, the official TAP news agency reported.

"The other four were later released from hospital, reported Radio Mosaique FM."

We don't know what was on the minds of these five, but it worries me. Tunisia's revolution began with the public self-immolation of Muhammad Bouazizi, an economically frustrated young man who has since been lionized. My fear is that this is making suicide, especially public suicide, a trendy option in Tunisia and elsewhere in the Arab world. Admittedly this is the first real possible copycat case I've run across.

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Friday, September 16, 2011

Bomb Removal in Lebanon

Five years after Israel's war with Hizbullah, Lebanon is still dealing with the problem of cluster bombs:
"The terrain in south Lebanon that Lamis Zein scours every day should be open fields where farmers can grow food and graze their livestock. Instead, the land is littered with cluster bombs.

"Ms Zein and her team search for these unexploded devices, painstakingly combing land in a part of Lebanon where residents are all too familiar with the devastating impact of cluster munitions...

"Over the past four decades the cluster bombs left primarily by multiple Israeli military operations in Lebanon have killed hundreds and left many more maimed. Attention was once again focused on the weapons this week, when campaigners and officials from more than 120 countries gathered in Beirut for the second international conference on the Convention on Cluster Munitions, which was signed in 2008...

"National efforts to remove the bombs are led by the Lebanese army's Lebanon Mine Action Centre. The hope is that through the work of teams such as Ms Zein's, the country will be free of cluster bombs by 2016. However, Lebanese campaigners say US$75 million (Dh275.25m) is still needed to clear all areas."

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Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Drone Downed Over Karabakh

Karabakh's military says they shot down an Azerbaijani spy drone:
"Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that broke away from Azerbaijan after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, said it shot down an unmanned Azeri drone over its territory on Sept. 12.

"The unmanned aircraft was downed to prevent similar reconnaissance flights over the disputed area, which have become more frequent along the border in recent days, the Karabakh Defense Army said in a statement on its website today...

"Oil-exporting Azerbaijan is using energy income to acquire modern weaponry, including unmanned planes from Israel, with whom the Caspian Sea nation started joint production of drones, President Ilham Aliyev said in April. Today’s incident marks the first time an Azeri spy plane has ever been shot down over the majority-Armenian populated region.

"The Azeri Defense Ministry has previously not denied Armenian media reports that some of the drones produced with Israel are being used to monitor Nagorno-Karabakh."

According to RFE-RL, this is the first such aerial target shot down since the end of the Karabakh War in 1994. However, if these unmanned spy drones have only been in service since April, this might not represent as much of an escalation as some fear.

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Monday, September 12, 2011

Religious Minority Property

Turkey's ruling party is moving decisively to return property to religious minorities:
"The new mentality to which Karakose is referring is the nine years of rule under the Islamic-rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has introduced a number of legal reforms aimed at resolving the seizure of hundreds of properties and lands by the Turkish state. Since 1936 strict controls had been enforced on the ownership of property by foundations belonging to non-Muslims. Churches, cemeteries, and schools were also among the seizures. But last month, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, while attending a meal with leading figures of the non-Muslim community, promised closure on the controversy with a legal commitment to return all properties.

"'The days when a citizen of ours would be oppressed due to his religious or ethnic origin, or different way of life are over,' Erdogan vowed. 'This is not about doing a favor; this is about rectifying an injustice.'"

The decline of Christianity in 20th-century Turkey has not occurred under Islamists, but under militantly secular Turkish nationalists who feared that difference could lead the state to fracture under local nationalisms. It's under the Islamist AKP that conditions are improving:
"The return of properties is part of wider process of improving the environment for the non-Muslim minorities under the AKP government.

"Earlier this year for the first time, Istanbul's Greek minority, or Rum, as they are called here, held an exhibition celebrating their heritage. Once the community numbered in the millions, now it is down to a few thousand -- the result of discrimination and historical tensions with Greece. This month is the 56th anniversary of a pogrom against Istanbul's Rum population."

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Sunday, September 11, 2011

Why Study History?

Historiann asks, "What is the point of learning history?" I like the answer of Abu al-Hasan Ali ibn al-Husayn ibn Ali al-Mas'udi, called the "Imam of Historians" in premodern Muslim civilization:
"For any branch of knowledge to exist, it must be derived from history. From it all wisdom is deduced, all jurisprudence is elicited, all eloquence is learnt. Those who reason by analogy build upon it. Those who have opinions to expound use it for argument. Popular knowledge is derived from it and the precepts of the wise are found in it. Noble and lofty morality is acquired from it and the rules of royal government and war are sought in it. All manner of strange events are found in it; in it, too, all kinds of entertaining stories may be enjoyed. It is a science which can be appreciated by both the educated and the ignorant, savoured by both fool and sage, and much desired comfort to elites and commoners. The superiority of history over all other branches of learning is obvious. The loftiness of its status is recognized by any person of intelligence."

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Community in an Age of Hatred

Osama bin Laden will go down in history as a religious fanatic twisted by virulent anti-Semitism, conspiracy theories, and messianic self-righteousness. It is striking that his objective of a global terrorist campaign against all American and allied citizens and interests was so extreme and so repulsive to human decency that it was long concealed, with relevant religious arguments initially revealed to only a few of his committed followers and a fundraising campaign which was openly misleading even to those religiously puritanical and anti-Western backers who were its most natural consistency. Even if one were to accept his diagnosis of global problems and theological vision, one would have to say that his violent and messianic recklessness and desire to see himself as a military hero much like those he read about in his youth has led to nothing but the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Muslims, in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other places where innocents have been caught in the crossfire of that war he sought to provoke.

And he did believe he would provoke a war on September 11, 2001. Osama bin Laden believed that the United States lay at the root of much of the world's evil, and that inflicting casualties on it would cause it to retreat in those arenas he most cared about. But he believed the United States would strike at Afghanistan, at least with cruise missiles and probably with more, which is why two days before those attacks he sought to ingratiate himself with the Taliban by sacrificing some of his followers in the suicide attack which killed Northern Alliance leader Ahmad Shah Massoud. He saw himself as someone who could wear down a second superpower in Afghanistan, and took upon himself the decision to sacrifice the blood and treasure that such a war would entail.

Bin Laden and his inner circle were not, however, enough to undertake this project on their own. They required at least a small army of foot soldiers to sustain the early stages of the struggle, and found it in the recruits who came to the training camps they set up in Afghanistan under Taliban protection. The last book I read dealing with al-Qaeda was Thomas Hegghammer's Jihad in Saudi Arabia, which looks at hundreds of reconstructed biographies of al-Qaeda recruits from that country since the 1990's. This was also, I should note, the homeland of the 15 "muscle hijackers" of the 9/11 attacks. What he found was that, overwhelmingly, their motives for traveling to Afghanistan were rooted in sympathy with and anger for the suffering of their fellow Muslims, a community with which they strongly identified.

All of our communities are based on communication, though rather embarrassingly I only just now noted that those two words are etymologically related. It is only through communication that the abstract can become real. Once upon a time most people were limited to oral communication and those they regularly interacted with locally. Over time, improved communication led to broader bonds that connected them to such wider circles as nation and ethnicity. Today, when a college student at Shippensburg University can watch live streaming video of a protest in Cairo, there is no spatial limit on the size of our communities, and even the bonds of language can start to slip away in an increasingly polyglot world.

For those Muslims inclined to care for the sufferings of their co-religionists, the 1990's offered no shortage of moving images. Today we forget that for 12 years, Iraq was under crippling sanctions that, more due to Ba'athist manipulation for propaganda purposes than their actual construction, led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, including children. In the summer of 2001, I made my first trip to the Middle East, and while lunching across from a mosque in Irbid, Jordan heard a Friday sermon that listed a series of names: Bosnia, Palestine, Kosovo, Iraq, and others. My deficient Arabic comprehension skills were not needed to see that that was a list of countries where Muslims were under pressure, albeit for very different reasons, and that the United States could be implicated in each, if sometimes only for indifference. Bosnia, Palestine, and Iraq were all prominent causes throughout the Muslim world, and if I've never read that Kosovo was in the same league, it might just be because it lasted for a shorter time. In 1999, Russia launched an assault on the Muslim republic of Chechnya, and it was here, according to Hegghammer, that many of those who went to Afghanistan to train in the camps of a hero of the anti-Soviet struggle expected to ultimately fight. It was in Afghanistan, under the spell of the charismatic war hero and intensive exposure to his propaganda, that many began to share in his agenda. Thus did a globalized love develop a dark twin in a globalized hatred.

The events of September 11 came as a shock to the American people, and the world. I remember well shying away from contemplation of the enormity of it, and also the fear of what was to come. I remember a girl on a street corner by the University of Wisconsin who was moved to just stand there and wave a flag at passersby. I remember the sense of national togetherness, as people of all stations and walks of life were visibly moved and trying to deal with the tragedy. I remember rallying with my fellow Americans around a president whom many saw as illegitimate, and craving justice upon the perpetrators. I remember also a quiet effect it had in many areas of the world. On that day, one of my professors was in Istanbul. When he returned, he told us that one thing he had noticed there was that people who had always seen the U.S. through a lens of flashy Hollywood movies and newscasts saw this country in a way they never had before, as for the first time the politicians and action heroes were displaced by police and firemen and medical workers. Friends I had just met in the Middle East e-mailed with sympathy and concern.

As the war in Afghanistan became imminent, the concern of my Middle East-based friends became opposition to the idea of a military response, as with the community solidarities they had developed, they felt kinship with the inevitable innocent victims and a suspicion stitched together of disparate cases mentioned above that Muslims everywhere were under a sustained assault by Western powers that hated and feared their religion. I expressed my support for the war in Afghanistan and gave my reasons, reasons I still believe in. But I don't think I really appreciated then what I understand more fully now: That having to fight that war was in itself a defeat. For even a battle won has costs, and even a war of necessity can lay seeds for future violence.

Military theorists tell us that one goal of terrorism is to force people to pick sides in an ensuing community struggle. President George W. Bush understood this, and emphasized on many occasions that the United States did not see Islam as responsible for terrorism. Al-Qaeda leaders believed that an open American attack on a Muslim country would rally the entire Muslim world behind them. It is of great frustration to them that this plan failed miserably. Some did join them, however, especially after the 2003 invasion of Iraq proved even more radicalizing than the sanctions. Within Iraq, Christians have become the most vulnerable of populations. There is evidence that religious hostilities are rising around the world, and some say 75% of religious persecution is now directed at Christians, with attacks on churches in Iraq and Egypt simply the highest-profile incidents.

Much as many Muslims perceive a Christian onslaught against Islam, so today many Christians and others in Christian-majority societies see a Muslim onslaught on the Christian world. In recent years, every American Muslim I have met feels a constant buzz of Islamophobic harassment. The Republican presidential race has seen bursts of sharp anti-Islamic rhetoric. Mosque construction is resisted by activists around the country. Last Christmas Eve, the Roman Catholic Bishop of Springfield even raised the specter of Muslim immigrants imposing shari'a in a homily motivated by his concern for Middle Eastern Christians as fellow members of a worldwide Christian community.

In this there are uncomfortable parallels with the radicalization of al-Qaeda recruits that led ultimately to September 11. I do not say that those who have the opinions mentioned in the above paragraph are in any way on the same moral plane as terrorists, for those who pass from thoughts to acts of mass violence cross a significant barrier indeed. But as we recently saw in Norway, it is easy to unthinkingly create an environment in which some will make that crossing, and still easier, when under the influence of hate or fear, to allow those who are themselves lost in darkness to lead us onto evil paths.

Today we have more knowledge of the world than ever before, but it is still incomplete, shaped by our sources, our interests, and our communities. What we must learn is to be humble with all our knowledge, and to retain in the face of wrong those values which make us right. The greatest challenge of modernity is to expand our sense of community to encompass all humanity, speaking to one another across the lines that divide us to gain an understanding of different experiences and perspectives, as well as the root commonalities we all share. For only then can we see the grievances and pains of others as clearly as our own, only then can we draw from the full well of human experience and understanding, and only then can we see most clearly those who are the common enemies of all.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

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Friday, September 09, 2011

Cairo Embassy Protests

Today a protest against the anti-democratic policies of Egypt's SCAF also encompassed the Israeli embassy:
"Organizers of Friday’s demonstrations had said they would call for a list of familiar liberal goals, like retribution against former President Hosni Mubarak and an end to military trials of civilians. But thousands of people marched off from the square to express their anger over disparate recent events, including a recent border incident with Israel and a brawl between soccer fans and the police at a recent match.

"Thousands of hardcore soccer fans — known here as ultras — were for the first time a conspicuous if not dominant force in the protests. They led the attacks on the Interior Ministry and the security building near the Israeli embassy. At the Interior Ministry, groups of political activists were seen attempting to form human barriers to protect the building, urging protesters to retreat to the square and chanting, 'peacefully, peacefully.'

"The Israeli embassy, which has been the site of several previous demonstrations after Israeli armed forces accidentally killed five Egyptian officers while chasing Palestinian militants near the border last month, was an early target on Friday. In response to almost daily protests since the border episode, the Egyptian authorities had built a concrete wall surrounding the embassy, and by early afternoon thousands of protesters — some equipped with hammers — were marching toward the building to try to tear down the wall."

The example of Turkey's forceful anti-Israeli diplomacy certainly increases popular frustration with the SCAF, but I'm wondering about the future. The big issue in the Arab-Israeli conflict right now is the Palestinian statehood bid at the United Nations. What happens if violence develops in the Palestinian Territories during this period? Will this have any impact on domestic developments in Egypt in particular?

UPDATE: Steve Negus has a great post on these events.

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The Importance of Training Camps

Over the past couple of years, I've noticed a trend of people pointing to terrorist plots hatched in, for example, Europe as evidence that "safe havens" for terrorist groups do not matter. In his monograph Jihad in Saudi Arabia, Thomas Hegghammer comes to a different conclusion:
"The arguably most important lesson from the history of al-Qaida is that unhampered access to territory can dramatically increase a terrorist group's military capability. For a start, the safe haven allowed al-Qaida to quietly plan operations on its own schedule with virtually no outside interference. Moreover, it allowed Bin Laden to build a core organisation with a relatively high degree of bureaucratisation and functional task division, which in turn improved organisational efficiency. Most important of all, territorial access enabled Bin Laden to set up an elaborate military educational system, the like of which has never been seen in the hands of a transnational terrorist organisation with such a radical agenda. This infrastructure - or "University of Global Jihadism" - greatly improved al-Qaida's ability to operationalise recruits. The training camps are also key to understanding the characteristic organisational unity of al-Qaida, namely the simultaneous existence of a hierarchical and bureaucratic core and a much larger and looser network of camp alumni.

"Beyond increasing the recruits' paramilitary expertise, the camps constituted an arena for social processes that improved al-Qaida's operational capability. Many of these processes imitated those cultivated by professional military organisations. Instructors first of all sought to desensitise the recruits through intensive weapons practice and through the promotion of an ultra-masculine and weapons-fixated camp culture. Moreover, the hardship of camp life made recruits forge strong personal relationships, thus building the deep internal loyalty and trust needed for long-winded operations such as the 9/11 attacks. Finally the 'graduates' of these camps were imbued with self-confidence and a sense of being part of a vanguard, which turned many into leading or entrepreneurial figures in the militant communities in their home countries. In addition to these social processes came the ideological indoctrination into global jihadism. Recruits were exposed to lectures and writings of global jihadi ideologues. Instructors also encouraged anti-American statements within the camps, leading recruits to try to rhetorically outdo one another. On the whole, the alumni from these training camps were more brutal, more bound together and more anti-Western than most of their peers."

Some context for the second paragraph is provided by Hegghammer's prosopographical study of 197 al-Qaida recruits from Saudi Arabia. Almost all of them travelled to Afghanistan intending to fight in prominent limited conflicts such as that in Chechnya and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Only in the training camps in Afghanistan did some start becoming committed to the al-Qaida vision of a global campaign against the United States or socially recruited into other agendas. The fact that deception about al-Qaida's actual agenda was involved, not only in fundraising, but recruitment, leads me to hate al-Qaida even more now than I did this morning.

I suspect suspicion about the "safe haven" idea results from skepticism about American policy into Afghanistan bleeding over into one of the primary rationales for our involvement there. I do not, however, draw from the work of Hegghammer and others whom I have read any especially militant conclusions. Specifically, it seems clear that al-Qaida and the Taliban themselves had different agendas, and that many within the Taliban were not keen on harboring Bin Laden's state within a state. This is, in fact, why he ordered the assassination of the Taliban's arch-rival Ahmad Shah Massoud ten years ago today. In addition, while it seems common sense that trained terrorists are more capable of inflicting harm than untrained ones, the point about drawing recruits into Bin Ladenism seems irrelevant now that everyone can clearly see what it is. I haven't closely followed the war in Afghanistan for several years, but given my sense of the situation on the ground, I would not be averse to a withdrawal that involved some elements of the Taliban gaining some measure of political power in the country, along with a sufficient intelligence presence to be aware of and a willingness to act against any new "training camps" that were sufficiently threatening to U.S.'s national interests.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

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Monday, September 05, 2011

Berdymuhammedov Replaces Niyazov

Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov has obviously been President of Turkmenistan for several years, but is now taking more visible steps to develop a personality cult similar to, though hopefully not as extreme as, his predecessor, Saparmurat Niyazov. Last week came news that the Council of Elders, a government advisory body, was planning to declare him "Arkadag," meaning "Protector," and also suggest that as the name of a new capital city. Now RFE-RL reports that he is producing a replacement for the Rukhnama:
"Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov will soon release a new 'spiritual guidebook' for the country that will replace the long-used 'Rukhnama' (Book of the Soul) of his predecessor, RFE/RL's Turkmen Service reports.

"Well-placed sources in the Turkmen intelligentsia told RFE/RL on condition of anonymity that the book will either be called 'Turkmennama' (Book for Turkmen) or 'Adamnama' (Book for Humanity)...

"Gutliyev had written about the need for a new guidebook that will be essential for a 'new period in Turkmen history' -- since Berdymukhammedov came to power -- which state ideology describes as 'an era of Great Renaissance...'

"Meanwhile, Berdymukhammedov has ordered his cabinet to mark the 10th anniversary of 'Rukhnama' on September 12, the day it was launched in 2001.

"The guidebook was made a compulsory part of the curriculum at all levels of the country's educational system and it was expected to be prominently displayed in public places and kept in every home."

Again, we have to hope that Berdymuhammadov will be content with a more limited role for his own book.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

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Black Africans in Tripoli

It's not clear where Qadhafi actually used mercenaries from sub-Saharan Africa in his losing battle for Libya, but a belief that he did is already putting Black migrant workers in an untenable position:
"As rebel leaders pleaded with their fighters to avoid taking revenge against 'brother Libyans,' many rebels were turning their wrath against migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, imprisoning hundreds for the crime of fighting as 'mercenaries' for Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi without any evidence except the color of their skin...

"Many Tripoli residents — including some local rebel leaders — now often use the Arabic word for 'mercenaries' or 'foreign fighters' as a catchall term to refer to any member of the city’s large underclass of African migrant workers. Makeshift rebel jails around the city have been holding African migrants segregated in fetid, sweltering pens for as long as two weeks on charges that their captors often acknowledge to be little more than suspicion. The migrants far outnumber Libyan prisoners, in part because rebels say they have allowed many Libyan Qaddafi supporters to return to their homes if they are willing to surrender their weapons."

From the article as a whole, it sounds like the upper levels of the rebel command structure are trying to get control of this situation, but in the meantime popular prejudice is running rampant. Western journalists found no evidence in Tripoli that the supposed mercenaries ever existed, but I expect a belief that there were to provide support to Libyan racism for years to come. Such prejudice exists already partly due to the idea that migrants are taking jobs from unemployed Libyans.

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Saturday, September 03, 2011

Israel's Protest Movement

Over 450,000 people attended economic-themed protests in Israel this evening:
"Over 450,000 protesters attended rallies across the country (Saturday) night calling for social justice in what was the largest demonstration in Israeli history.

"The main protest took place in Tel Aviv's Kikar Hamedina, where some 300,000 people gathered after marching from Habima Square about two kilometers away. Protest leader Yonatan Levy said the atmosphere was like 'a second Independence Day.'"

To understand the scale of this movement, consider that Israel's population is 7.7 million, meaning that 1 out of every 17 Israelis was out on the streets protesting. Israel has such huge protests on occasion, but the last one on this scale was during the 1982 Lebanon War.

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