Optimism for Tunisia

Fouad Hamdan is optimistic for Tunisia:

"The explosion of newfound freedoms since President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia on January 14 after a three-week uprising is something no one can ever take away from Tunisians. If there is any consensus, it is that the hard-won freedom of expression is inviolable...

"Despite continuing protests and efforts by Ben Ali loyalists to disrupt the democratic process, it is nevertheless possible to be optimistic. In principle, everything is still on track.

"The roadmap for moving towards a truly open and democratic system is sound. El-Sebsi and the political reform commission have gained widespread acceptance, and army generals with no political ambitions are guaranteeing overall security and keeping a close eye on the feared police and intelligence agencies.

"Tunisians are rapidly developing a democratic culture that will enable them to tackle four major challenges after the October 23 election for a constitutional assembly – forging a coalition of several parties to form Tunisia’s first truly legitimate government, reforming the police and judiciary, creating jobs for young people and reducing the economic inequalities between different regions; and launching a process of transitional justice that will see human rights abusers and corrupt individuals prosecuted.

"The revolution in Tunisia did not end when Ben Ali fled. It has been continuing slowly since then, and will receive a boost after October 23."

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

A Death in Sitra

I've mentioned before that Bahrain's protest movement remains alive outside Manama. The New York Times reports the latest:

"A 14-year-old boy was killed as security forces in Bahrain violently broke up a small protest in a town south of the capital on Wednesday. Witnesses said the boy was struck in the head by a tear-gas canister that the security forces fired directly at the crowd at close range, and died shortly afterward at a hospital.

"The Bahrain Youth Society for Human Rights published photos of the dead boy, whose name was given as Ali Jawad Ahmad, and of the blood-stained sidewalk in Sitra where the incident took place...

"Sitra, an oil hub six miles south of Manama, the capital, is known for its activist Shiite population. It was a stronghold of antigovernment activists at the height of demonstrations earlier this year. The government of Bahrain, with help from Saudi Arabia, violently put down the country’s peaceful protest movement in March...

"Nabeel Rajab, the president of the Bahrain Center for Human Rights, wrote on his Twitter account in Arabic that video of the boy’s dead body was 'a gift to the people' from the government during Id al-Fitr, the festival celebrating the end of Muslim holy month of Ramadan."

Rajab's statement definitely seems tone deaf. Even if the martyrdom does rejuvenate the protest movement, you don't announce it that way. Sitra is an old center of Shi'ite religious learning on Bahrain's main island, much like Bani Jamra.

Syria's Military Cracking?

As the Syrian regime continues its violent crackdown on demonstrators, there are reports of dissension in the ranks:

"Syrian security forces have killed at least six people and wounded dozens in raids across the country, as tanks and armoured vehicles rolled into various flashpoint areas, according to human rights groups...

"There have been consistent reports of some units refusing to fire on protesters, but the crackdown has continued...

"Opposition activists say security forces have also surrounded the central town of Rastan after reports of 'widespread defections' by soldiers there.

"A video posted on video-sharing website YouTube, which Al Jazeera cannot independently verify, appears to show 12 army officers switching sides...

"Activists and residents have been reporting increasing defections in the Syrian army since the demise of Muammar Gaddafi's rule over Libya, Reuters reported.

"They claim there have been desertions in the eastern Deir ez-Zor province, the northwestern Idlib province, the Homs countryside and at the outskirts of Damascus.

"A statement published on the internet by the Free Officers, a group that says it represents defectors, also said 'large defections' had occurred in Harasta; the first reported defections around the capital, where President Bashar al-Assad's core forces are based...

"This came as Syrian opposition leaders formed a National Transitional Council in Turkey. It included 42 members who are currently in Syria, and will be led by a prominent opposition figure based in Paris."

When I noted the possible effects of Qadhafi's fall on other Arab countries, I thought of the protestors, but had not considered that it could inspire defections in the armed forces. Incidentally, is "National Transitional Council" going to be the Revolutionary Command Council of the 21st century?

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

The NTC's Tripoli

John Thorne reports on the NTC's challenges in Tripoli:

"Mustafa Abdel Jalil, the National Transitional Council chief, speaking in Benghazi where the rebellion began in February, called for emergency humanitarian aid for the capital, particularly medical supplies...

"He blamed 'sabotage by Qaddafi's forces' for shortages of water and electricity in Tripoli, and said: 'We are working on resolving these problems.'

"Rebels were working to restart a refinery at nearby Zawiyah that provides fuel for Tripoli's main power plant, said Mahmoud Shammam, the NTC information minister. For now, 30,000 tonnes of fuel would be distributed over the next two days, he said. He also promised a fair trial for the fugutive deposed leader Col Muammar Qaddafi and his senior aides, and to protect them from personal vendettas.

"Controlling the road from the Tunisian border to Tripoli would ease growing shortages of fuel and food, particularly in the capital, transformed from metropolis to ghost town over the past week...

"Shops in Tripoli were mostly closed yesterday and the streets nearly empty of cars, apart from the gun-mounted pickups of rebel forces cruising down avenues brilliant with revolutionary graffiti...

"Checkpoints have sprung up around the city, often staffed by armed young men and teenagers. For many, they are a poor substitute for security and sometimes cause of friction."

Theory and Practice of History

Here is my syllabus for "Theory and Practice of History," the gateway course for history majors at Shippensburg University.

HIS 203-002: Theory and Practice of History
202 Dauphin Humanities Center, TR 12:30 p.m.
Dr. Brian J. Ulrich

Office: 201 Dauphin Humanities Center, ex. 1736
Office Hours: TR 2:00-3:30; W 11:00-1:00, also by appointment
E-mail: bjulrich@ship.edu

Required Texts:

The Pursuit of History, 5th Edition, John Tosh
A Manual for Writers of Research Papers, Theses and Dissertations, 7th Edition, Kate L. Turabian, et al.

James West Davidson and Mark Hamilton Lytle, After the Fact: The Art of Historical Detection, (New York: Knopf, 1982) – on reserve in Lehman Library

Electronic reserves found on Blackboard

This course is designed to introduce you to the theory and practice of history while developing basic skills to both work as professional historians and succeed in the academic study of history. It will both introduce history as an academic discipline and provide students with hands-on research experience. The most important element will be a project of original research based on primary sources, resulting in both a high quality oral presentation and a paper suitable for publication. Assignments are designed to develop critical reading, writing, and research skills as well as analytical ability.

Grading:

Research Project – 35% (25% paper, 10% presentation)
Peer Review – 5%
Short Assignments and Quizzes – 20%
Participation – 20%
Career Development – 10%
Light Final Exam – 10%

Research Project

Students will, based on original research in primary sources, produce both a publication-quality research paper of at least eight (full) pages and give a presentation to the class of a length to be determined based on de facto class size late in the semester. Students may select their own topics subject to the approval of the professor. Finding appropriate primary sources will be the most important limiting factor in topic choices. The course D2L site includes links to in-line primary source collections and archives in the area. We will also spend a day in Lehman Library for orientation to sources available on campus. Because a key aspect of this class is to mentor students in the production of such a project, internal deadlines for specific project elements will be rigorously enforced by a penalty of 10% of the possible research project grade (or 3.5% of the possible final grade). As noted, that penalty is doubled for the rough draft of the paper.

These internal deadlines are:

1.) October 11, 11:59 p.m. – Submit via e-mail a one paragraph project proposal that includes a topic, possible research questions, primary sources and an example of how you plan to use them, and relevant secondary sources.
2.) October 18, class time – Bring two sources to class for detailed work on using sources.
3.) October 27, class time – Bring to class an introduction that sets up the historical problem, your method for solving it, and your tentative solution (thesis).
4.) November 10, 15 – Prior to an individual meeting with the professor, you must produce a two page précis, or summary of your paper.
5.) November 22 – Bring to class a rough draft for purposes of peer review. This deadline carries a double penalty of 20% off the total project grade.
6.) December 8 – Research papers are due at class time. Final submission instructions are forthcoming.

Peer Review

On November 22 in class, students will do a peer review of another students’ paper. The student will provide oral feedback in class, as well as a more formal, written version submitted to both the student and the professor on-line by class time on November 29. The peer review assignment cannot be made up without a documented university-sanctioned excuse.

Short Assignments and Quizzes

As noted on the syllabus, students will frequently be asked to do short written assignments prior to each class. The professor also reserves the right to add short assignments and to give pop quizzes. Short papers must be typed and properly cited using Turabian-style footnotes unless otherwise noted. Nothing in this category can be made up. Because of legitimate excuses for missing class, the lowest grade in this category will be dropped from the final grade calculation.

The most common type of short assignment is the article review. Each of these is to be exactly three paragraphs. In the first paragraph, you will explain the author’s argument and any historiographical context. In the second paragraph, you will summarize how the author made this point, paying attention to both argumentation and how he or she used primary sources. In the third paragraph, you will provide an overall evaluation of the article, possibly using ideas from Tosh.

Participation

This class will be conducted seminar style, which means the onus is on you to prepare and participate. This also means attendance is critical at all times. Every missed class above two will result in a penalty of 15% off the maximum total participation grade (or 3% off the maximum total grade). This does not differentiate between excused and unexcused absences. Note that perfect attendance alone will not earn an A.

Career Development

Another goal of this course is to make sure you have some clue what you want to do after graduation and how to go about giving yourself the best chance to do it. Because of this, you will complete two career development assignments. By September 13, you must complete the Focus-2 Assessment at the web site of the Shippensburg University Career Development Center. You will need to log-in to the Focus-2 site on the Career Development Center (CDC) webpage, and then work through the site’s sections. At the end, the program will summarize your results in a personal “Career Portfolio.” As the syllabus is being finalized, the professor has realized he has no clue whether there is an option to e-mail yourself the results so that you can then forward them to him to turn in.

In addition, on September 27, you will hand in a career exploration executive summary. This should be three paragraphs, including 1.) the nature of the job, including employment possibilities and salary information 2.) the training, knowledge, and experience necessary for entry-level positions in this field and 3.) what you need to do to get that training, knowledge, and skills, including the identification of specific possible intern sites or graduate programs. Be aware that especially in the third paragraph, this assignment will probably require on-line research, and even telephone calls or e-mails.

In order to get the most out of these assignments, please discuss the results with the Career Development Center, your advisor, or the History-Philosophy Department’s undergraduate internship coordinator, Dr. Allen Dietrich-Ward.

Plagiarism

Plagiarism is bad, and all work must be cited. The minimum penalty for plagiarism will be a zero on the assignment in question and, if it is a step in the research project, application of the appropriate late penalty.

Disability Accommodation

If you feel you may need an accommodation based on the impact of a disability, you should contact me privately to discuss your specific needs at least 72 hours prior to the activity which requires the accommodation. If you have not already done so, you must contact the Office of Disability Services. This office is responsible for determining reasonable and appropriate accommodations for students with disabilities on a case-by-case basis, and more generally, for ensuring that members of the community with disabilities have access to Shippensburg’s programs and services. They also assist students in identifying and managing the factors that may interfere with learning and in developing strategies to enhance learning. I cannot approve an accommodation without you registering.

Schedule of Readings and Major Assignments

August 30 – Course intro
Come to class with a 1-2 page, potentially hand-written uncited paper in which you consider how aspects of history are portrayed in at least three examples drawn from contemporary popular culture (movies, novels, that sort of thing).
September 1 – Tosh, 1-25 (historical awareness and social memory)
Hand in a 2-page, now typed and properly footnoted paper in which you identify which of the “distorting effects” discussed in the reading affect the presentation of the past in those cultural sources you chose, as well as how. (See Turabian, Chapter 17 for citation formats)

September 6 – Tosh, 29-55 (uses of history, career center speaker)
September 8 – Turabian, 3-23 (conceiving the project)

September 13 - Tosh, 58-65 (political and diplomatic history, Focus-2 assessment due)
Read also the following articles from the “Political History Today” special in the May 2011 Perspectives:

“Political History Today: Plural Perspectives on a Protean Creature,” Pillarisetti Sudhir
“The Interdisciplinarity of Political History,” Julian Zelizer
“The Business in Between: U.S. Foreign Relations and Domestic Politics,” Christopher Dietrich
“Searching out the Sacred in U.S. Political History,” Darren Dochuk
“Research Resources for Diplomatic History,” Carl Ashley
“Political Resources Waiting to be Mined,” Donald Ritchie
“Revisiting the Early American Republic: The New Nation Votes Database Enables a New Political History,” Rosemarie Zagarri
September 15 – Tosh, 65-73 (social history, history and social sciences)
Proceedings of the Old Bailey, 1674-1913 (survey “On this day in…” case on left sidebar, which will hopefully be interesting)
Rebekah Nathan, My Freshman Year, selection
Mary Beth Sievens, “Divorce, Patriarchal Authority, and Masculinity: A Case from Early National Vermont,” Journal of Social History 37 (2004), pp. 651-661.
Hand in an article review on Sievens

September 20 – Tosh, 74-9 (economic and religious history)
Patricia Lopes Don, “Franciscans, Indian Sorcerers, and the Inquisition in New Spain, 1536-1543,” Journal of World History 17 (2006), pp. 27-49.
Chris Evans, Owen Jackson, and Goran Ryden, “Baltic Iron and the British Iron Industry in the Eighteenth Century,” The Economic History Review 55 (2002), pp. 642-665.
Read and hand in an article review on either of the above articles
September 22 – Tosh, 88-93, 108-16 (sources)

September 27 – Turabian 24-35 (sources continued, meet at library)
Complete career exploration executive summary
September 29 – Tosh, 93-98 (narrative sources)
J. Michael Farmer, “The Three Chaste Ones of Ba: Local Perspectives on the Yellow Turban Rebellion on the Chengdu Plain,” Journal of the American Oriental Society 125 (2005), pp. 191-202
D.O. Morgan, “Ibn Battuta and the Mongols,” Journal of the Royal Asiatic Society 11 (2001), pp. 1-11
Hand in one page reflection on things to consider when using literary sources, based on readings

October 4 – Tosh, 98-107 (documentary sources)
Davidson and Lytle, “Declaring Independence”
October 6 – “Background on Archaeological Methods” (archaeology)
Kent R. Weeks, “Archaeology and Egyptology,” Egyptology Today, ed. Richard H. Wilkinson, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), pp. 7-22
Pam Crabtree, “The Archaeology of Medieval Europe,” History Compass 7 (2009), pp. 879-893

***Note deadline for proposed topic and sources***

October 11 – FALL BREAK
October 13 – Mary Kay Quinlan, “The Dynamics of Interviewing,” The Oxford Handbook of Oral History, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011), pp. 23-36
Davdison and Lytle, “The View from the Bottom Rail”
look at oral history interviews (oral history)

October 18 – Tosh, 119-43 (using the sources – bring to class at least two sources you plan to use for your research paper)
October 20 – Tosh, 147-71 (historical writing)

October 25 – Tosh, 175-210 (philosophy of history, historians’ roles)
October 27 – Turabian, 62-81 (planning the paper, bring paper introduction to class)

November 1 – Tosh, 214-42 (history and theory)
November 3 – Tosh, 246-71 (cultural history)

November 8 – Tosh, 274-85 (gender history)
Ann M. Little, “Gender and Sexuality in the North American Borderlands, 1492-1848,” History Compass 7 (2009), pp. 1606-15
November 10- Individual meetings on two page précis

November 15 – Individual meetings on two page précis
November 17 – Tosh, 285-99 (race and postcolonialism)
Carl H. Nightengale, “Before Race Mattered: Geographies of the Color Line in Early Colonial Madras and New York,” American Historical Review 113 (2008), pp. 48-71
Hand in article review on Nightengale

November 22 – Rough drafts due, peer review of rough drafts (double late penalty!)
November 24 – THANKSGIVING

November 29 – Turabian, 98-126 (revisions and oral presentations)
December 1 – Presentation of Student Research

December 6 – Presentation of Student Research
December 8 – Presentation of Student Research (research paper due)

Tuesday, December 13, 1 p.m. – Light final exam

Friday Protests in Bahrain

Yesterday was a day of protest in Bahrain. Part of the background to this is Shaykh Isa Qasem's warning to the royal family that they could face the same fate as Muammar Qadhafi if they fail to reform:

"The sermon by Sheik Isa Qassim was attended by thousands of worshippers, and was a show of defiance after Bahrain's justice minister accused the cleric of promoting unrest in the strategic island nation, which is home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet.

"A police helicopter hovered low over the crowds spilling from the mosque after the service. Some worshippers unfurled banners saying 'We will never submit to anyone but God' and warning that government pressure on Qassim is 'political suicide.'

"Qassim vowed he would never be silenced, and said it was his religious duty to support demands by Bahrain's majority Shiites for greater rights and a stronger voice in how the country is run...

"'Can't they learn from the fall of dictatorships and see what happens to those who denied their people basic rights?' Qassim told worshippers. 'We now see what happens to the Libyan dictator, just as what happened to Tunisian and Egyptian despots.'"

In addition, the government banned protests for Quds Day, an annual day of solidarity with Palestinians sometimes associated with Iranian revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. My sense from Twitter traffic is that the frequency of protests in Bahrain diminished after the regime crackdown began, but that they never really ceased in the rural areas, especially Bani Jamra. Yesterday's reports, however, placed demonstrations in Manama, in Shi'ite neighborhoods such as Ra's Rummaan. I don't have good, detailed sources on the scene, but I suspect two factors are converging to cause an uptick in demonstrations at this time. One is the demonstration effect of Libya, which was mentioned in Qasem's sermon. The other is the government threat against Qasem, which called to mind the government's suppression of Shaykh Abd al-Amir al-Jamri during the 1990's. Al-Jamri was and remains posthumously a popular figure in Bahrain. I don't know if Isa Qasem, who is the highest-ranking cleric associated with the al-Wifaq opposition party, is in that league yet, but he could be moving in that direction. The AP calls him the top Shi'ite leader in Bahrain, and he has clearly been making a play for ayatollah status, but he shares the limelight with Abdullah al-Ghurayfi, whom some trumpeted as a possible successor to late Lebanese Grand Ayatollah Muhammad Hussein Fadlullah.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Bahrain's Ongoing Struggle

I've been reading snippets that Bahrain's protest movement is still alive outside the capital. I'll try to blog about these more frequently, but for the moment I'm haunted by a former student's meeting with her imprisoned husband:

"I had expected that Wafi like others had been tortured, but hearing it come from his mouth really hurts much more, it makes it real." #

"Wafi told us today abt wen he was detained underground at fort. He was tortured so badly he coudnt stand for days. He had to crawl." #

"Wafi said he urinated blood for weeks, and was hospitalized for 4 days after severe torture. #

"He says those 4 days in the hospital, every night at 12 police would come in throw them of their beds and beat them badly." #

"He said he was electrocuted not only at the fort but also when he was brought to Dry Dock." #

"After saying hello Wafi gave me a heart he had made out of colored strings with our initials inside. He said "Happy Anniversary" #

"Wafi also made a little necklace out of strings for Jude, with the letter "J" and gave it to her." #

Pictures are here and here.

Qadhafi Falls

As I write, it is crystal clear that Moammar Qadhafi's 42-year rule of Libya has come to an end, and he himself will likely be captured, killed or fled before the evening is out. Yesterday I commented that the best case scenario was for an uprising against him in Tripoli itself to go with the advance of the Free Libya forces. Juan Cole recounts how just that occurred:

"The underground network of revolutionaries in the capital, who had been violently repressed by Qaddafi’s security forces last March, appear to have planned the uprising on hearing of the fall of Zawiya and Zlitan. It is Ramadan, so people in Tripoli are fasting during the day, breaking their fast at sunset. Immediately after they ate their meal, the callers to prayer or muezzins mounted the minarets of the mosques and began calling out, 'Allahu Akbar,' (God is most Great), as a signal to begin the uprising. (Intrestingly, this tactic is similar to that used by the Green movement for democracy in Iran in 2009).

"Working class districts in the east were the first to rise up. Apparently revolutionaries have been smuggling in weapons to the capital and finding a way to practice with them. Tajoura, a few kilometers from Tripoli to the east, mounted a successful attack on the Qaddafi forces in the working class suburb, driving them off. At one point the government troops fired rockets at the protesting crowds, killing 122 persons. But it was a futile piece of barbarity, followed by complete defeat of Qaddafi forces. Eyewitness Asil al-Tajuri told Aljazeera Arabic by telephone that the revolutionaries in Tajoura captured 6 government troops, and that they freed 500 prisoners from the Hamidiya penitentiary. The Tajoura popular forces also captured the Muitiqa military base in the suburb and stormed the residence of Mansur Daw, the head of security forces in Tripoli...

"At one point an Aljazeera Arabic correspondent was able to get the frequency of the security forces and we overheard them fretting that they were running low on ammunition and fuel for their riposte to the revolutionaries’ advance."

That last paragraph calls attention to the critical role of international support for the rebels, seen most dramatically in the NATO bombardment which destroyed much of Qadhafi's military might. The NATO intervention was still a gamble, in that there seemed to be no plan for what would happen if a stalemate developed, but in this case it is a gamble that has paid off.

The history of the 2011 Arab revolutions now runs something like this: In December 2010, an uprising began in Tunisia, developing out of worker protests in the southern part of that country that may have been inspired by the culture of protest in neighboring Algeria. After a month, Ben Ali fled, and a massive uprising began in Egypt, which succeeded in ousting Mubarak just a few weeks. Tunisia's revolution had inspired protest movements elsewhere in the Arab world, and after Mubarak fell, these became much larger, as such a development in 1.) a second country and 2.) a larger, more culturally central country led people to see themselves as living in a possible age of revolution. However, other governments succeeded is using loyal security forces to crack down on their protest movements, and there have been no major developments since.

Until now. Does the success of the Libyan Revolution presage similar developments elsewhere, especially in Syria and Yemen? Not necessarily. Libya had a well-armed insurrection which succeeded with the aid of a significant foreign military operation. It is not clear that those conditions will exist elsewhere, and so the "Libya model," which as Robert Farley notes is really the Afghanistan model, does not seem a likely prototype for other countries. On the other hand, the fall of Qadhafi could inspire people elsewhere to resist their regimes to a greater extent than they otherwise might, against especially in Syria, and this in turn could ultimately lead to fractures in national security forces or between regimes and their security forces, and this could enable those revolts to succeed.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

SUTV Emmy Nomination

Congratulations to Shippensburg University's student-run TV station's newscast for receiving an Emmy nomination:

"SUTV was nominated in the College Production — Newscast category. Also nominated in that category was Temple University. According to the NATAS website, this category is for outstanding achievement in a regularly scheduled newscast with entries to be judged on such areas as overall content, presentation, enterprise, writing and format.

"The program entered was broadcast March 31. According to the program description: 'SUTV’s Bubba Smith reports from Harrisburg on students' rally protesting the governor's proposed education cuts, an SUTV News/The Slate Newspaper exclusive with President William Ruud about the imminent tuition increases, Lucas Martin reports from the bus taking students to the rally in Harrisburg, and Rachel Snody explains how Facebook was a valuble resource in organizing the rally. Also, Casey Piell's forecast, Steph Horvat reports on professor's involvement with Peace Corps and the stories they share, Mariana Boguski's and Jim Gallagher's sports, how fake $10 bills have been found around town, and Anna Kerstetter takes us behind the scenes of Shippensburg's latest theatrical production.'"

What's funny about this is that I'm pretty sure that was the newscast for which they interviewed me on Libya, though I got bumped from the actual broadcast.

Libya's Nearing Climax

The civil war in Libya may be nearing its climax as rebels draw their tightest circle yet around the capital of Tripoli:

"Rebels encircled the beleaguered Libyan capital on Saturday, claiming to have taken major towns to its east, west and south, leaving only the NATO-patrolled sea to the north...

"By Saturday afternoon, the rebels had driven Colonel Qaddafi’s forces out of the strategic oil refinery town of Zawiyah, 30 miles west of Tripoli. After a week of heavy fighting there, residents began to celebrate in the main square.

"The Arab news network Al Jazeera reported that Zlitan, a crucial Qaddafi barracks town east of Tripoli, also had fallen to the rebels. They captured Gharyan, the gateway to the south, last week.

"Farther east, the rebels claimed to have seized the residential areas of the oil port of Brega, a prize that had changed hands many times since the uprising began."

The Free Libya forces have often lost territory after gaining it, but the advances of the past few days have been greater than previously, Qaddafi is preparing for street fighting in the capital, and the pace of defections seems to have increased, signalling that regime figures are losing faith in its survival. What's really needed, though, is a major uprising in Tripoli itself to avoid the need for urban warfare that could ground on for quite a while.

Karabakh Military Build-Up

In recent months, observers of the south Caucasus have been concerned about rising tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan as negotiations over the status of the latter's breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh go nowhere. Most recently, Karabakh's top military commander has been advertising a build-up:

"The commander of Armenian-backed forces in the breakaway Azerbaijani region of Nagorno-Karabakh has said his military acquired significant amounts of new weapons this year and will continue its buildup, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reports.

"Lieutenant-General Movses Hakobian estimated that the 'military potential' of his troops grew by 20 percent in the first half of 2011...

"Armenia, whose armed forces are closely connected with the Karabakh military, is likely to be the main source of the arms acquisitions Hakobian reported."

The context is this:

"Azerbaijani leaders regularly threaten forcibly to take back Karabakh and Armenian-controlled territories surrounding the disputed enclave if the long-running Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks yield no results acceptable to Baku. The Azerbaijani government plans to boost military spending to $3.3 billion this year, up from $2.15 billion a year ago and just $160 million in 2003."

Azerbaijan has become flush with energy wealth since its loss in the Karabakh War of the early 1990's, and throughout negotiations has seen time as on its side given that such wealth could be invested in its military. Karabakh represents about 15% of Azerbaijan's territory, and hundreds of thousands of refugees have been displaced from the region into the rest of Azerbaijan. It is a festering sore for Azerbaijan, but also a point of nationalist pride for Armenia, for Karabakh was, in fact, Armenian before the Soviets sought to suppress Armenian nationalism by giving some Armenian territory to Azerbaijan in the early days of the U.S.S.R. If Azerbaijan concludes that it can defeat Armenia in a rematch and that Armenia will not allow Karabakh to revert to Azerbaijani's sovereignty as part of a peace process, then there will eventually be war.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Al-Qaeda and the Arab Spring

Mariann Ormholt looks at al-Qaeda and the Arab Spring:

"A study on al-Qaeda in the Arab Spring by Juan Zarate and David Gordon of Washington’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies, CSIS, suggests a number of other reasons why al-Qaeda has been sidelined in the uprisings...

"Nonetheless, al-Qaeda leaders have quickly sought to try and position their movement as having a role to play in the revolutions.

"Abu Yahya al-Libi, a leading al-Qaeda figure, even linked the rebellions with its efforts to challenge the United States. He said this had inspired the Arab world to demand change.

"Other prominent al-Qaeda figures such as current head Ayman al-Zawahiri and Anwar al-Awlaki, a Yemeni-American cleric, have also attempted to claim credit for the revolutions...

"At the same time, Benotman said that it was difficult for al-Qaeda to find a role in the revolutions. While the militants blame western powers for the hardships faced by Muslims, the popular protests addressed ineffective governance and local grievances, such as unemployment and corruption.

"In addition, while the protesters are mostly driven by temporal concerns, al-Qaeda continues to be driven by religious imperatives."

I'm dubious of the distinction between temporal and religious concerns in that last paragraph, as al-Qaeda has always articulated temporal concerns through a religious lens. This, however, does not detract from the fact that al-Qaeda has become even more marginal to Arab political developments than they were before. At the same time, I think we should take seriously the concern that their brand of transnational salafi jihadism could attract more of a following if the Arab world reverts to the status quo of 2010, much as it has gained supporters in the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip and in some Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Patronage and Iraqi Politics

Maria Fantappie looks at the relationship between Nouri al-Maliki and the Sadr movement in Iraq:

"In 2007, Maliki’s forces drove the Sadrists’ Mehdi army out of Basra. Although allied in the central government, Maliki and the Sadrists are once again competing, but this time through political rather than military means...

"The Sadrists rely on a fluid chain of decision-making that issues policies at the top levels of government and implements projects through local committees in the provinces they run. In just a few months, their ministries have begun to build housing complexes in Maysan, implement infrastructure projects in Muthanna, improve the provision of electricity in Dhi-Qar, and improve access to water in Najaf. Starting with Maysan, Maliki has spared no time in disrupting this flow by limiting government funding, delaying approval for implementation, and hampering foreign investments.

"The rush to outperform each other is most evident in the provinces of Basra and Baghdad. Maliki has hastened the allocation of funds and approved projects, but often the Sadrists have capitalized on Maliki’s efforts by taking credit for implementing projects through local committees and the ministries they run. In Baghdad, when the government began providing free fuel to supply electric generators, Sadrist committees organized distribution to each home in Sadr City and Shula. As the Shatt al-Arab irrigation project began in Basra, Maliki was compelled to create the National Council for Water under his chairmanship, undermining the Ministry of Water in the process.

"If Maliki governs Iraq as its patron –– through a pyramidal hierarchy of command emanating from Baghdad –– the Sadrists deploy a strongly connected network between their representatives in parliament, the Al Ahrar Bloc, and their political bureaus in the provinces. While the prime minister receives local officials in his office in Baghdad, Sadrist members of parliament travel to all of the southern provinces to listen to constituent demands and congratulate local bureaus on their achievements. Competition is high over tribal support. While the Maliki-sponsored 'Tribal Support Councils' have co-opted several southern sheiks over the past years, the Sadrists are winning them over by proposing irrigation projects and improving services in the areas they control."

The context for this is that Maliki can access the highest levers of power in Baghdad, but relies on the Sadr movement to penetrate Iraqi society, which is necessary to maintain power. The conduct of politics as described by Fantassie shows the persistence of patronage networks and informal ties in Iraqi politics. In this type of political economy, the Sadrists can do what other Islamist organizations have done in different Arab countries and fill public service gaps. At the same time, they seem to be serving as a mediator between state and society in a way they did with regional Ba'ath governors during the 1990's. Whether they can actually parlay that into a greater share of power at the top remains to be seen.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Remediation and Tuition

Baumol's cost disease means college tuition can't help but rise faster than the rate of inflation. As Daniel Luzer addresses the idea that remedial instruction is also a huge factor:

"Universities still don’t have to provide remedial assistance. Blaming administrative costs on the need for remediation is misleading, suggesting as it does that the growth in such costs is valid. In fact, there’s no reason administrators have to manage such 'help,' and there’s no indication they’re doing it well.

"And let’s not talk about how remediation wasn’t necessary years ago. If students aren’t prepared for college, just don’t admit them. It’s very troublesome to suggest that somehow because high school students aren’t ready for higher education colleges will just let them in anyway and then bill all students for the costs of remediation. It’s the college’s fault they don’t run remediation programs efficiently; there’s no reason to pass the costs of that wastefulness on to students."

As long as there is pressure on universities to grow, they will have to admit increasingly unprepared students. As long as universities offer tutoring centers, such students will increase the demand on them. In addition, admitting people and then placing them in a position where failure is likely, as would happen if their basic skills problems went completely unmet, is simply not ethical. In Pennsylvania, I actually think Tom Corbett is onto something when he thinks too many students attend four-year colleges and universities, not because of the job situation, but because so many students who show up in my classes would clearly benefit from a year or two of community college instruction. Unfortunately, he hasn't provided the leadership that would result in public universities starting to shrink, which as I understand it would require changing various incentives built into the system by government officials promoting the system's growth.

AKP and Syria's Muslim Brotherhood

When Hafez al-Assad cracked down on the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood in the early 1980's, its members fled to Turkey, where a new generation has come of age. Piotr Zalewski looks at the Turkish influence on them:

"As Syrians continue to risk their lives to call for an end to the Assad regime, however, the impact of the Turkish experience on the Brotherhood's political evolution is coming into clearer focus. In 2002, under the leadership of Ali al-Bayanouni, the Brotherhood publicly disavowed violence and embraced parliamentary democracy. In the years that followed, it called for free elections in Syria and announced its support for women's rights. This April, during the early days of the Syrian uprising, Brotherhood leaders held a news conference in Istanbul in which they denounced the Assad regime. And then in June, at a Syrian opposition conference held in the Turkish city of Antalya, Brotherhood members put their signatures on a declaration that called for 'the freedom of belief, expression and practice of religion, under a civil state.'

"Bayanouni, who headed the group from 1996 to 2010, continues to strike notes that place him more in line with today's pious Turkish politicians than the hard-edged Brotherhood leaders of days past. 'Firstly, we believe that the state in Islam is a civil state, not a state ruled by any religious leaders or clerics,' he told me, speaking from London. 'Secondly, we cannot impose any particular way of dressing on citizens.... We do call for and encourage [women] to wear the hijab and to follow Islamic behavior and action, but individuals must be free to choose what they want.'

"Although the Brotherhood isn't new to parliamentary democracy, said Bayanouni, citing the group's participation in Syria's 1961 elections, the AKP has provided it with a blueprint for reform. 'The AKP is neutral in the area of religion -- neither does it impose religion upon Turkish citizens nor does it seek to fight religion,' Bayanouni noted, 'and for this reason we find [it] to be an excellent model.'"

Some Turks, of course, do see the AKP as imposing religion on society, though the AKP would say they are simply liberating faith from secularist persecution. The main Islamist currents in Turkey, however, relate to Said Nursi and Fethullah Gulen. If their thought started making inroads in the Arab world, that would be an excellent thing.

World History Skills

This year I added a section to my World History I syllabus designed to highlight the skills I seek to develop in that course. This is especially important at Shippensburg University, where all freshmen are required to take it, not just for content, but under the heading of "required skills and competencies" specifically for its skill development potential. Here they are:

1.) Global competence – The cultural literacy and habits of mind necessary to work with people from around the world has become a critical aspect of modern education. At Shippensburg University, the world history program is the most important element of developing this skill set.

2.) Communication skills – The 2011 annual survey from the National Association of Colleges and Employers identified written and verbal communication as the skills in which they wished to see the most improvement in their pool of potential employees. World History I is just one of the classes where these are developed at Shippensburg University. You can never get too much.

3.) Symphonic thinking – Employers also want employees who can recognize patterns and see big pictures. This is one of the key tasks of the historian, and I doubt it’s an accident that when I once did an informal survey of friends to find out what they got from their history courses that was relevant to their lives after graduation, many of them referenced something about learning to organize knowledge.

4.) Reading for learning – This refers to the ability to determine the main points of a text and understand it thoroughly in as efficient a manner as possible. Our readings of Crone will be important to developing this skill early, before we begin reading sometimes archaic-sounding primary sources and occasionally scholarly articles.

5.) Considering evidence – An important part of reasoning is the consideration of evidence to see what we can learn from it, as well as how pieces of evidence can be combined to form larger arguments. This is the most important skill for historians, and so this class is a useful place to develop it.

6.) Attention to detail – Life is more than just details, but details still matter. Have you used appropriate detail in making your case in your paper or discussion? Are your citations and formatting correct?

Ghannouchi on Religion and State

Rashid Ghannouchi, leader of Tunisia's Islamist al-Nahda group, on religion and the state:

"Tunisians agree on the constitutional text even when they deeply disagree about religion. For instance, a move to make the state a neutral religious actor has strong appeal for those who wish to move toward a French-style secularism that minimizes the role of religion in political life. But it also appeals to some Islamists who see it as a way of liberating Islam from the state's heavy hand. When I spoke with Ghannushi, he talked favorably of what he called the 'Anglo-Saxon' model as opposed to French secularism -- by which he meant a state neutrality that is not unfriendly to religion in the public sphere. The words were not uttered just for my benefit -- I saw him expand on the subject in an interview with an Egyptian satellite channel a few days later. Thus, a vaguely worded constitutional provision on religious neutrality would likely be implemented very differently by the opposing camps, but they might still be able to agree on a common text."

This is fascinating, and gives rise to two questions. First, does he see this "Anglo-Saxon model" as a good idea, or simply better than a French-style alternative? Second, is he more interested in the British or American variant? It might not matter that much, but as someone once commented to me, "We English may not go to church as much as you Americans, but when we do, we go to the Church of England."

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Islam and Politics in the Modern Middle East

This syllabus is different from the one I used two years ago mainly because I decided to rotate readings for variety.

HIS 496-001: Islam and Politics in the Modern Middle East
208 Dauphin Humanities Center, TR 5:00 p.m.
Dr. Brian J. Ulrich

Office: 201 Dauphin Humanities Center, ex. 1736
Office Hours: TR 2:00-3:30; W 11:00-1:00, also by appointment
E-mail: bjulrich@ship.edu

Required Texts:

*Muslim Politics, Dale Eickelman and James Piscatori
*Religion and Social Change in Modern Turkey, Serif Mardin
*Arabic Thought in the Liberal Age, Albert Hourani
Khomeini: Life of the Ayatollah, Baqer Moin
*The Society of the Muslim Brothers, Richard Mitchell
Milestones, Sayyid Qutb
The Wahhabi Mission and Saudi Arabia, David Commins
Politics of Piety: The Islamic Revival and the Feminist Subject, Saba Mahmood

Electronic reserves found on Blackboard
Readings marked with an asterisk are also on reserve in Lehman Library

In this course, we will explore the relationship between Islam and Politics in the Modern Middle East. Readings and discussion will cover the impact of modernity on Islamic identities, the emergence of diverse political movements based on interpretations of Islam, and the ways in which modern states sought to derive legitimacy through Islamic symbols. We will pay less attention to specific actions of these movements than to their social and ideological basis, and the ways in which they differ from each other and long-standing interpretations of Islam.

In addition to class participation, evaluation will involve five 2-3 page “short papers” as noted on the syllabus, a quiz over Islamic terms, a 16-page research paper on a topic of your choosing, and a short presentation over that topic. Details of these assignments are forthcoming. Attendance is required, and for each absence over two you will lose 10% of your participation grade. Participation is not limited to attendance. Late assignments will be penalized on the grade for that assignment, as will failure to meet a deadline for the research paper topic or abstract.

Academic dishonesty will not be tolerated and handled according to Shippensburg procedures. Any text taken from another source in an assignment must be noted with quotation marks and the original source indicated. In the research paper, all information, regardless of whether exact words are used, must be cited via footnotes.

If you feel you may need an accommodation based on the impact of a disability, you should contact me privately to discuss your specific needs at least 72 hours prior to the activity which requires the accommodation. If you have not already done so, you must contact the Office of Disability Services. This office is responsible for determining reasonable and appropriate accommodations for students with disabilities on a case-by-case basis, and more generally, for ensuring that members of the community with disabilities have access to Shippensburg’s programs and services. They also assist students in identifying and managing the factors that may interfere with learning and in developing strategies to enhance learning. I cannot approve an accommodation without you registering.

Grading:

Participation – 25%
Terms quiz – 10%
Short Papers – 25%
Research paper – 30%
Research presentation – 10%

Schedule of Readings and Major Assignments

August 30 – Course Intro
September 1 - Qur’an, Suras 1 and 2; Hourani, pp. 1-24

September 6 – Hourani, pp. 25 -33; Mardin, pp. 1-41; *John Voll, “Foundations for Renewal and Reform,” The Oxford History of Islam, pp. 509-48; Francis Robinson, “Other-Worldly and This-Worldly Islam and the Islamic Revival,” Journal of the Royal Asiatic Society 14 (2004): 47-58.
September 8 –Mardin, pp. 42-102;

September 13 – Mardin, pp. 103-202
September 15 – Mardin, pp. 203-32 (terms quiz)

September 20 – Hourani, pp. 103-60; Eickelman and Piscatori, pp. 3-45; *Jamal al-Din al-Afghani, “Lecture on Teaching and Learning,” An Islamic Response to Imperialism, tr. Nikki R. Keddie, (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1968), pp. 101-8.
September 22 – Hourani, pp. 161-92, 222-44; *Qasim Amin, “The Liberation of Women,” Modern and Fundamentalist Debates in Islam: A Reader, ed. Mansoor Moaddel and Kamran Talattof, (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002), pp. 163-81 (short paper due)

September 27 – Eickelman and Piscatori, pp. 46-164
September 29 – Moin, pp. 1-52; Laurence Louer, Transnational Shia Politics: Religious and Political Networks in the Gulf, (New York: Columbia University Press, 2008), pp. 69-88.

October 4 – Moin, pp. 53-159; Selection from Khomeini’s writings on-line
October 6 – Moin, pp. 160-222

October 11 – FALL BREAK
October 13 – Moin, pp. 223-313; Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, “Factors Conducive to the Politicization of the Lebanese Shi’a and the Emergence of Hizbullah,” Journal of Islamic Studies 14 (2003): 273-307 (short paper due)

October 18 - Mitchell, pp. 1-34, 209-59
October 20 - Mitchell, pp. 35-104 (skim), 260-94

October 25 - Mitchell, pp. 105-62; Malika Zeghal, “Religion and Politics in Egypt: The Ulema of al-Azhar, Radical Islam, and the State (1952-94),” International Journal of Middle East Studies 31 (1999): 371-99;
October 27 - Qutb, Chapters 1-6

November 1 - Qutb, Chapters 7-12 (short paper due)
November 3 - Ahmad Dallal, “The Origins and Objectives of Islamic Revivalist Thought, 1750-1850,” Journal of the American Oriental Society 113 (1993): 341-59; Muhammad b. Abd al-Wahhab, Kitab al-Tawhid; Commins, pp. 1-39

November 8 - Commins, pp. 40-129
November 10- Commins, pp. 130-209 (short paper due)

November 15 – Mahmood, pp. 1-78;
November 17 – Mahmood, pp. 79-117

November 22 – Mahmood, pp. 118-99 (short paper due)
November 24 – THANKSGIVING

November 29 – Presentation of Student Research
December 1 – NO CLASS – MIDDLE EAST STUDIES ASSOCIATION

December 6 – Presentation of Student Research
December 8 – Presentation of Student Research (research paper due)

December 13 – Presentation of Student Research (if necessary)

Ramadan Massacres

A week ago, Syria's President Bashar al-Assad began cracking down on opposition protests in Hama, killing hundreds. Today, he extended the massacre:

"The Syrian military defied growing condemnation and initiated another assault on the country’s most restive locales on Sunday, deploying dozens of tanks and armored vehicles into parts of a city in eastern Syria that it had long feared provoking, activists and residents said. Dozens were killed, they said, and thousands had fled the city.

"The attack before dawn on the eastern city, Deir al-Zour, came exactly a week after Syrian forces attacked Hama, a city in central Syria that had largely wrested itself from government control this summer. Like Hama, Deir al-Zour, in Syria’s oil- and gas-producing region, had been the scene of mass protests, with hundreds of thousands in the streets. But the military, wary of the city’s powerful and well-armed extended clans, had mostly stayed on the outskirts...

"By the count of some human rights groups, more than 2,000 people have been killed in the crackdown so far...

"Residents put the death toll in Deir al-Zour at 42, and one of them said a family of six trying to escape — a couple with four children — were among the dead. Activists said that many residents had left in recent days. A local man who gave his name as Maamoun said that pickup trucks packed with as many as 25 women and children each were fleeing down abandoned streets, trying to avoid the fighting."

Syria's crackdown has met with strong condemnation from Saudi Arabia. This we should view with a jaded eye, as a collapse of the Syrian regime would remove a competitor for Saudi influence in Lebanon. Another note is that these tribal links in Syria's east could give rise to a broader violent conflict similar to that in Yemen or Libya, with weapons flooding across the vast desert border with Iraq. I don't think, however, that we can actually say that Assad is done for, unfortunately. Aleppo and Damascus have yet to give visible signs of rebellion, and they are crucial.

Iran's New Oil Minister

One trend of the past decade or so of Iranian history has been the growing involvement in the IRGC in Iran's economy. Now, a prominent officer/businessman has become the country's oil minister:

"Iran's parliament has voted to approve Rostam Qasemi, a Revolutionary Guards commander, to head the country's oil ministry.

"The country's president had called on the Majlis to confirm Qasemi and end months of wrangling over control of oil and gas production in the world's fifth biggest crude exporter...

"Qasemi heads a major engineering company - owned by the elite military body - and is under US and EU sanctions due to Western concerns Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons technology, a charge the Islamic republic has always denied...

"The newly appointed minister comes from Khatam al-Anbia, the Guards company initially set up to conduct vital infrastructure work during the eight-year war with Iraq which followed the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

"It has since executed oil projects worth a total of $25bn, state-owned IRNA reported recently, quoting Ahmad Qalebani, managing director of the state National Iranian Oil Co.

"Qasemi's position has drawn the attention of Western countries that believe the Revolutionary Guards and its affiliates are involved in Iranian efforts to develop nuclear weapons, a goal that Tehran denies."

This affair, however, shows that in contrast to previous analysis, Ahmadinejad may not be part of a solid front with the military, as he tried to prevent Qasemi's rise to that post.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Middle East HIV

A new study looks at HIV in North Africa and the Middle East:

"Epidemics of HIV have emerged among gay and bisexual men in the Middle East and North Africa, while high levels of risky sexual behaviour threaten to spread Aids further in the region, researchers said on Tuesday.

"In the first study of its kind in the region, researchers from Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar found evidence for concentrated HIV epidemics.

"Epidemics are said to be present when infection rates are above 5 per cent in a certain population group. The study found evidence of this in Egypt, Sudan, Pakistan and Tunisia...

"There is little published data on the Middle East and North African regions and Ghina Mumtaz, who led the study with colleague Laith Abu Raddad, said this had been driving misconceptions that there is no reliable information at all.

"'It's like the black hole in the global HIV map, and this has triggered many controversies and debates around the status of the epidemic,' she said.

"But when they looked more closely, the researchers found that data was indeed available, although it had been had not been made public."

I'm not sure if this is related to the Arab Spring, but AIDS is exactly the kind of issue governments in the region preferred not to deal with. Meanwhile, Razib Khan looks more deeply at the homosexuality angle, find really high rates of homosexuality in the samples and suggesting that it could be statistical evidence of young people engaging in homosexual acts because heterosexual ones are so much more difficult.

Mubarak on Trial

Let's pause to appreciate the moment:

"Nearly six months after he was forced from power, ousted Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak was wheeled into the cage of a Cairo courtroom Wednesday to be tried for allegedly ordering the killing of protesters this year.

"The former autocrat’s appearance before a judge gripped millions of Egyptians, who are awestruck by the reversal of fortune of a man who for three decades ruled the Arab world’s most populous nation with an iron fist.

"After the chief prosecutor read the charges, presiding Judge Ahmed Refaat asked Mubarak, who was lying on a gurney and looking sickly, to enter a plea.

"'I deny all these charges and accusations categorically,' Mubarak said...

"Mubarak could be sentenced to death if convicted in the slaying of demonstrators. He also faces graft charges."

Turkmen Internet Crackdown

Remember that outbreak of web-based citizen journalism following the explosions at Abadan in Turkmenistan? The government is pursuing the "culprints":

"After web users in Turkmenistan broke news of a major fire to the outside world, the country’s intelligence and police services have reacted by trying to hunt down those who dared to make their voices heard...

"A police officer said checks were being run on everyone with a mobile phone subscription and web access through the national provider company Altyn Asyr...

"Aware of the risks, Abadan residents began deleting any data on their phones that might get them into trouble.

"Seitnazar, who has two teenage children, said plainclothes officers had visited neighbours and confiscated phones and cameras from young people in each household...

"Freelance journalist Dovletmyrat Yazgulyev, who posted pictures and reports of the fire on his blog on the website of the Turkmen service of RFE/RL, was summoned by the regional police department for organised crime a week later.

"'I was given an official warning and told that if I did anything similar again, I would be prosecuted under articles 132 and 177 of the criminal code – for “dissemination of defamatory information in the media”, and “incitement on social, religious or ethnic grounds’, respectively – and sent to prison for five years,' Yazgulyev said in an interview for RFE/RL."

Sarksyan's Nod to Greater Armenia

The President of Armenia answered a question:

"Armenian President, Serzh Sarksyan, has hinted at historic territorial claims against Turkey, and implied that he regarded the seizure of Azerbaijani territory as final. Addressing an audience of students from Armenia and the diaspora on July 23, Sarksyan was asked whether the country could regain 'Western Armenia' [the irredentist name for the eastern part of Turkey] in the future. Sarksyan gave a two-part answer. In the first part, he responded that Armenia’s present generation has successfully resolved the matter of Karabakh, 'a part of our homeland,' and the next generation now growing up, he said, has its own responsibility to fulfill with honor. In the second part of this convoluted answer, Sarksyan said that a country’s standing did not necessarily depend on its territory, but required hard work in any case (Armenpress, PANArmenianNet, July 27; RFE/RL, July 28)."

"Western Armenia" is the region of eastern Turkey which had large Armenian populations before the Armenian Genocide during World War I. In 2006, I saw maps which included those "lost provinces" as part of Armenia all over Yerevan. Sarksyan's statement, which left fulfillment of those territorial claims to future generations, simply shows the ongoing force of Armenian nationalism.

Netanyahu's Border Negotiation Gambit

Right now, the biggest moving issue in the Arab-Israeli conflict is the push by the Palestinian Authority to be recognized as a state by the United Nations. President Obama, of course, has refused to use this as leverage on the settlement issue, and promised to use all the U.S.'s diplomatic clout to try and prevent it. In the context of these developments, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has offered this:

"Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu wants to negotiate borders with the Palestinian Authority (PA), according to local media reports, in an attempt to head off a Palestinian bid for statehood at the United Nations next month.

"The exact details of Netanyahu's proposal are unclear. Israel's Army Radio and Channel 2 television both reported on Tuesday that Netanyahu was willing to hold talks based on the pre-war 1967 borders...

"AFP quoted an unnamed Israeli official who said the borders would be the basis for talks.

"But a separate report from the Reuters news agency, quoting another unnamed official, said the proposal would not mention 1967 borders, though it could include borders 'that would be difficult for Israel to accept'.

"The reports say Netanyahu would agree to the talks if the PA drops its UN bid.

"They also say that Netanyahu will demand the PA recognise Israel as a 'Jewish state,' something it has publicly refused to do - though Al Jazeera's publication of The Palestine Papers revealed that Palestinian officials accepted that demand in private."

Frankly, I don't trust Netanyahu. Anyone can agree to negotiate, as long as they don't actually agree on anything. I also wonder if Netanyahu is making a gesture toward the Israeli center in the event that ongoing economic protests there lead to elections.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)