Brian's Coffeehouse: Now from Pennsylvania

I'm now emerging from my move to Chambersburg, Pennsylvania, and expect to resume normal blogging shortly. When I went to New York, a year ago, I didn't have much to move:



Since then I've bought furniture and a car, however. While that does mean more to move, it's much easier to settle in when you already have a bed, couch, desk, and that sort of thing.

On an unrelated note, congratulations to my friend K on her wedding this weekend.

The Iranian Meaning of Hizbullah

Anyone interested in transnational Islamist political movements or the politics of the Gulf countries, especially the Arab ones, should read Laurence Louer's Transnational Shia Politics: Religious and Political Networks in the Gulf. I won't be able to finish it right away as I return it to the library tomorrow in advance of moving, but it has lots of information on major Shi'ite political movements and how they manifest themselves within different national states.

This isn't a major point within the book, but it may explain some of the references to Hizbullah in the current Iranian crisis:

"'Hezbollah' is initially a Quranic term meaning the 'party of God'. After the revolution, it became a recurring concept of Ruhollah Khomeini's speeches to designate those truly committed to the defence of Islam and the Islamic revolution. The term was then appropriated by vigilante groups constituting a loose network of volunteers supported by some individual figures of the regime and claiming to act in order to safeguard the revolution against its enemies. While, in Iranian parlance, the word 'Hezbollah' designates the hardliners in general, it can also refer to structured pressure groups, often used by the regime to intimidate or even assassinate this or that recalcitrant person. While many self-describe as 'Hezbollah', many others often prefer to speak about them as partisans of the 'Imam's Line', that is those who keep faithful to the heritage of so-called 'Imam Khomeini'. This is the case, for example, of those who perpetrated the attack on the American embassy in Tehran in November 1979. Over the years, the label 'Imam's Line' has been preferred by the vigilantes because 'Hezbollah' came to have a pejorative connotation in an Iranian society weary of revolutionary language and favourable to a more relaxed implementation of the Islamic ethic."

I don't know if the term's appropriation by vigilante groups refers specifically to the Ansar-i Hizbullah, or is a more general phenomenon.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Suing Genies

The BBC reports:

"A family in Saudi Arabia is taking a 'genie' to court, accusing it of theft and harassment, reports say.

"They accuse the spirit of threatening them, throwing stones and stealing mobile phones, Al Watan newspaper said.

"The family have lived in the same house near the city of Medina for 15 years but say they only recently became aware of the spirit. They have now moved out.

"A local court is investigating."

As Arabist says, "About time that genies learn that they are not beyond the law."

Rafsanjani's Sermon

As Juan Cole explains, Rafsanjani's Friday prayer sermon was a paean to popular sovereignty in the Islamic Republic, in which he noted that even the Supreme Leader is indirectly elected by the people. It places him squarely in the reformist camp in a way he simply wasn't before, endorsing not only their candidate as an opponent of the principlists, but their core tenets, as well. Coming from a pillar of the establishment in such a high-profile setting, it also contributes to a weakening of the aura surrounding the office of the Supreme Leader, and sends a strong signal that the Green Wave is not over, even if it's path to victory is not yet apparent.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Facebook at Immigration

Iranian authorities are taking note of individuals' on-line networking:

"A trusted colleague - who is married to an Iranian-American and would thus prefer to stay anonymous - has told me of a very disturbing episode that happened to her friend, another Iranian-American, as she was flying to Iran last week. On passing through the immigration control at the airport in Tehran, she was asked by the officers if she has a Facebook account. When she said "no", the officers pulled up a laptop and searched for her name on Facebook. They found her account and noted down the names of her Facebook friends."

Rafsanjani as Prayer Leader

Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani will lead Friday's prayers in Tehran:

"The next flash point in the face-off is expected this Friday during prayers at Tehran University when Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, an influential former president, will be leading them for the first time since the election a month ago.

"A strong supporter of defeated presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, Mr. Rafsanjani – a pillar of the regime for 30 years – has emerged since the contested June 12 election as one of the key figures in a power struggle with Iran's supreme leader and his allies, including President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad...

"Posters titled The Promised Day Has Arrived are already being circulated ahead of Friday prayers. They promise the presence of Mr. Mousavi and former President Mohammad Khatami, and urge reformists to flood the prayer hall.

"Friday prayers at Tehran University have traditionally been a political agenda setter for the Islamic Republic and conservative rallying point. The open-air hall rings weekly with condemnations of the enemies of the Islamic Republic and cries of 'Death to America.' A week into the postelection rioting, Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, took the unusual step of personally addressing Friday prayers and delivered a speech condemning the rioters as the unwilling pawns of a British-fomented 'Velvet Revolution.'"

This is yet another astute move by the opposition.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Muscat Wastewater

Oman is moving ahead with a plan to upgrade Muscat's wastewater treatment facilities:

"Development of one of the biggest wastewater schemes in the Middle East is now well under way in Muscat.

"Affirming its determination to implement the giant project despite the global economic downturn, Oman’s government signed contracts worth in excess of half a billion dollars over the past week...

"In addition to the construction of several modern treatment plants, the contracts also cover the laying of hundreds of kilometres of sewer lines and several pumping stations, as well as the decommissioning of ageing treatment plants...

"Importantly, the Haya Water project will make available massive volumes of treated water for landscaping, farming and irrigation. It will provide the farm sector with an alternative resource to depleting groundwater aquifers."

Iranian Women and Activism

Melody Moezzi goes a bit into the ways in which women's role in the ongoing political turmoil in Iran didn't just spring from nowhere:

"Back in the ’70s Iranian women were fighting for the right to wear hijab after the shah outlawed it; today they are fighting for the right to take it off. Regardless, they have always been fighting for the same thing: the right to freely dress and, more importantly, speak their minds. Iranian women today are not embarking on some fresh path to freedom. They are simply picking up where their mothers and grandmothers left off...

"While it may appear that young Iranian women are at the head of this struggle, their grandmothers are at its roots. And it is these roots that allow them to stand strong and continue to fight even in the face of the harshest conditions, and even when it seems like no one is watching. While these roots may appear modest at first glance, they are, in fact, legion.

"Though maybe not to the rest of the world, in her corner of Tehran, Mamaan Kuchooloo was a kind of local celebrity. Everyone called her that, too: Mamaan Kuchooloo — a play on the Persian word for grandmother, mamaan bozorg, meaning big mother. Mamaan Kuchooloo, however, means little mother. At her tallest, she stood no more than 5 feet, but her presence was immeasurable."

She could also have mentioned that women were also critical during the Constitutional Revolution a century ago. A good source for this is Janet Afary's The Iranian Constitutional Revolution, 1906-1911: Grassroots Democracy, Social Democracy, and the Origins of Feminism.

Palin's Symbolism

Hugo Schwyzer has an important take on the Palin phenomemon:

"I found her politics crudely reactionary, and still do. But I was and am troubled by the way in which some of my fellow progressives have failed to recognize that, in many ways, Palin’s popularity with the 'base' reflects a radical cultural shift among our conservative brothers and sisters: with some notable and defiantly troglodytic exceptions, most on the right were and are quite comfortable with the idea of this woman, a mother of five, serving as president. This reflects nothing less than the happy truth that, for the most part, we on the left have won and are continuing to win the culture war. A generation ago, far more pastors and conservative pundits would have railed against a mother of young children pursuing a very public career outside the home. Her ambition would have been decried; her husband Todd’s primary role as caregiver to the younger daughters (Willow and Piper) would have been blasted as a tragic refusal to submit to God’s plan for the human household. And though some on the very fringes of the far right did indeed make noises to that effect, I was pleased that a clear majority of conservative voters repudiated those traditionalist sentiments.

Supreme Leadership

My trip back to the Midwest late last month broke my momentum in following Iran closely, and I'm only now starting to feel caught up enough so that my thoughts might be useful. Chief among those thoughts is the simple fact that the nature of the Supreme Leader's office has changed, and perhaps with it, the range of potential futures for the Islamic Republic.

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's concept of velayat-e faqih never had wide and deep theological support, but during the past 30 years, it has won acceptance, even if only passive, as a cornerstone of Iran's political landscape. During the past month, however, that implicit authority has been weakened beyond repair. How many people, and I'm speaking specifically of Iranians, knew previously that the Assembly of Experts didn't just elect the Supreme Leader, but also had the power to supervise and if necessary remove him? How many people, both within the government and outside it, have become his enemies now that he has openly become theirs?

The authority of his office weakened, Khamene'i now relies almost entirely on open displays of physical power, a development which grows out of the increasing Ahmadinejad-era militarization of Iranian politics that may have played a role in last month's electoral coup to begin with. Two days ago, the Los Angeles Times's Borzou Daraghi reported this:

"The top leaders of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard publicly acknowledged they had taken over the nation's security during the post-election unrest and warned late Sunday, in a threat against a reformist wave led by Mir-Hossein Mousavi, that there was no middle ground in the ongoing dispute over the reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

"Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of the elite military branch, said the guard's takeover of the nation's security had led to 'a revival of the revolution.'

"'These events put us in a new stage of the revolution and political struggles, and all of us must fully comprehend its dimensions,' he said at a Sunday press conference, according to reports that surfaced today.

"'Because the Revolutionary Guard was assigned the task of controlling the situation, [it] took the initiative to quell a spiraling unrest. This event pushed us into a new phase of the revolution and political struggles and we have to understand all its dimensions.'"

Digest that statement, and you start to see the difference between the principlists' "Islamic Government" and the "Islamic Republic" of traditional conservatives and most reformists.

What, then, of the popular revolution which has coalesced around Mousavi? If, over the course of several months, they succeed in forcing some sort of change the nature of which becomes more difficult to see as time passes, the Supreme Leadership is further weakened, having gone all in on suppressing it. If they fail, then the present regime continues, but it is difficult to see much future for the evolutionary potential many saw within the republican framework. It was always plausible for a successful reformist run to, in alliance with pragmatic conservatives, make the Supreme Leader a mostly ceremonial figure who gave sermons, talked about values, and presumably had a plush lifestyle if he wanted it, but interfered in government no more than Europe's constitutional monarchs. The office has no future, however, as the dictator-for-life of a government maintained only by the military, especially if it eventually winds up in Mojtaba's hands as a family fiefdom.

(Crossposted to American Footprints)

Mojtaba Khamene'i

RFE-RL looks at the important political role of Ayatollah Ali Khamene'i's son Mojtaba:

"Mojtaba Khamenei has a powerful unofficial position as the gatekeeper for all who want to contact his father. His role is reported to include acting as an interface between his father and the Office of the Supreme Leader.

"The office has an extended staff of thousands to arrange the supreme leader's meetings and keep him up to date on all political developments in the country. It does that by close contact with the supreme leader's own appointed representatives to the executive branch, the military, the provincial governments, and virtually all major revolutionary, religious, and cultural organizations.

"Mojtaba is widely credited with winning his father's endorsement for Ahmadinejad to run for president in 2005, when Ahmadinejad emerged from the shadows as a former mayor of Tehran but not a major national figure...

"Mojtaba, a reclusive figure in his 40s or early 50s, is said to be more hard-line than his father.

"Like Ahmadinejad, he represents a second generation of leaders determined to protect the Shi'a-led revolution from the moderating effects of time. Again like Ahmadinejad, he is said to share a taste for messianic rhetoric and Islamic fervor.

"There have always been allegations that Mojtaba -- given his father's total reliance upon him as a gatekeeper -- might be being groomed to succeed the supreme leader."

Crown Prince Hussein

In a non-shocking development, Jordan's King Abdullah II named his oldest son as crown prince:

"Hussein's appointment came in a royal decree released by the palace. It said the crown prince will hold the title and enjoy the rights and privileges of his post effective immediately...

"Thursday's move was widely expected once the position became vacant in November 2004, when Abdullah removed the title from his half brother, Prince Hamzah, in a sudden palace shake-up.

"Hamzah, 29, had held the post when Abdullah first ascended to the throne in
February 1999 following the death of their father."

We'll see if King Abdullah decides to skip trying to name another son as Hussein's successor.

Zahra Mansouri

This got buried under the Iran story, but is significant. A woman named Zahra Mansouri was chosen as mayor of the Moroccan city of Marrakesh.